Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Chase Burns (CIN) vs NYY (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.
Did you join me and the Pitcher List community last night? We watched Chase Burns toss his first game in an MLB uniform and boy was he electric. The final line of 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches (ND) doesn’t help your ratios but if you watched, you saw a future ace.
MLB debuts are weird. You never know how adrenaline will affect a player, though there are some general rules: Expect more volatility, a tick or two of extra velo, worse stamina (push too hard early), a truncated arsenal of heaters and their best #2 pitch, and a shorter leash. We had all of this with Burns and for him to earn his first six outs by way of the K (five in a row to start!) against a good Yankee offense is absurdly impressive. Throw in GABP for good measure (despite the few flyballs) and the box score itself should be a major green flag.
But who cares, what’s the stuff? Well, it’s 98 mph that can go to 100 mph that fell to as low as 94 mph by the fifth frame (we may see him settle at 97 mph over time, though he did sit 98/99 in his last minor league game), the latter of which, once again, should improve over time as he doesn’t overthrow early. It’s a heater that comes with below-average extension and HAVAA, but held 19″+ vert early and landed around 17-18″ later that he commands incredibly well in the upper third of the zone. Despite the velocity and vert, this isn’t a four-seamer destined to return 95th percentile whiffs, with batters gearing up for high velocity and selling out for it.
That opens the door for a secondary to flourish and Burns has a beauty. His slider can be 91/92 mph and fell to 87 mph by the end, but it receives all the spoils. It was his whiff machine in the minors and it made many batters look silly, including Grisham and Judge in the first frame, and he did so without the precision down-and-gloveside we’ve seen from other fastball/slider flamethrowers. Simply throwing it for strikes at a 75% clip is enough with the overpowering heater.
Changeups were sprinkled in as well to LHB and I was shocked he was able to locate it down with ease. There also was an 82 mph curveball in the mix, though it looked more like a slower slider than a proper hook with just a bit extra drop that makes for a questionable velocity compromise.
The question we asked during the stream: Jacob Misiorowski or Burns? It’s tough to tell. On one hand, this was one of the more impressive commanded games for a flamethrower making an MLB debut, and I’d expect more strikes are on the way for Burns. The Reds also tend to grant longer leashes to their starters and mixed with his efficiency, Burns should fine the sixth frame far more often than Misiowrowski this year. That said, Misiorowski’s stuff is a step above. Burns’ heater will not miss as many bats and pitching in GABP is sure to allow more HRs to damage his ERA more than Jay Mis. It’s close, and I’m glad I’ll get another look at Jay Mis and Burns before I have to rank them next week.
In short, he’s a stud and I’m starting him against the Phillies. This is the fun stuff.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs PHI (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 92 pitches.
Uhhhh, the curve is a 44% strike rate again and this could have been bad if the sinker wasn’t in the good graces of Koufax. That’s not fair, the changeup! Yeah, fair point. That pitch was stellar to RHB for 65% strikes and a quartet of outs in play. Still, he’s not the AGA guy without the curve cooking.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ LAA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Jeeeeez, he’s getting even better. Crochet was the poster child of “high extension and velo doesn’t care about your vert” and now he’s at 17″+ of vert?! WELL ALRIGHT THEN.
Taj Bradley (TBR) @ KCR (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 87 pitches.
Weird. We don’t think of Bradley being an arm who can rely on Koufax getting it done, but here we are. You know this isn’t sustainable, right?
Carlos Rodón (NYY) @ CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. With all of the focus on Burns, I’m appreciative of Rodón moving through his frames quickly with a King Cole. Pretty wild to get that award when only the four-seamer was able to return a strike rate above 53%. Stop throwing so many non-competitive sliders and changeups, dang it. Also, we saw one four-seamer distinctly in the upper third in this game. ONE. Wow.
Frankie Montas Jr. (NYM) vs ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 80 pitches.
Ayyyy, he’s back! And he earned a Gold Star for a Still ILL against Atlanta. What we saw was a little extra velo at 96+ mph and a larger focus on his cutter to both sides of the plate, while the splitter returned 1/9 strikes. The sinker did its job returning called strikes, but the winner was the four-seamer sitting upstairs for 60% hiLoc (sub 50% last year!) and returning a whopping 9/27 whiffs. Whoa. Year, that’s not something I’d bank on given the empty velocity (six feet extension, 15-16″ vert, 0.8 HAVAA), but that was a welcome surprise. It’s based on separation between the sinker and four-seamer that I wouldn’t expect Montas to nail down consistently. Throw in the adrenaline of his first outing that had him at 97 mph early and I’d be careful moving forward. But it’s the Pirates next. Well FINE, I guess we can try that one.
Germán Márquez (COL) vs LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 68 pitches.
Uhhh, Márquez has a 2.63 ERA across his last seven starts and just one earned run in his last three. His curveball held a 41% CSW and has been the reason for the run, though it’s not the one we saw in 2018, don’t go bonkers here. That “curve” is really a 0/0 gyro slider at 85 mph. Please don’t get any ideas – it’s a 1.43 WHIP in this same stretch.
Ranger Suárez (PHI) @ HOU (L) – 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 101 pitches.
I gotta say, Suárez is on an absurd run following his Still ILL outing that had him commanding far better than the 3.2 IP disaster line would suggest. He really is underrated and while I still believe he’ll slow down in the second half, I can’t deny that he’s been a legit stud for you across the last two months. Huge props.
Eric Lauer (TOR) @ CLE (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 86 pitches.
He’s trying awfully hard to make four-seamers, curves, and sliders work with a loose BSB approach – heaters are not in the lower third, curves are not in the upper third, and sliders are all around. I’m not too confident in this given the lack of, well, anything on the heater to suggest success at 92 mph and poor shape, but at least he’s throwing strikes and locating decently well. That’s it? Yeah, sadly. I wouldn’t chase this in Fenway.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) @ CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
Yesssss. And also noooooooo. Wait what. I’m glad the stream worked with seven strikeouts to boot as the four-seamer overwhelmed with 11/68 whiffs (16% SwStr rate) and 19-20″ of vert (not the 21-22″ of last game, but I’ll take it all day) at 95/96 mph + above average extension. I’m a little sad because he didn’t spot the pitch incredibly well – over the plate, but not upstairs a ton – and I’m not sure I can buy his curveball as the #2 pitch for strikes. Sure, it went 62% here across 13 thrown, but that’s literally one curve difference from a 54% clip. He threw six other secondaries between sliders, changeups, and cutters, and I’m hoping we see more next time against the Giants. I’m still in, I just wanted a larger step forward.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs BOS (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 82 pitches.
Awwww, you couldn’t go one more out? This is still a decent stream, based on the changeup rolling up outs and definitely not because of the cutter returning a sub 50% strike rate. It’s a two-step of Atlanta + Toronto next and I’m out on that one. Maybe a deep stream against Atlanta, but the Jays are too good against LHP.
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) @ COL (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 62% CSW, 86 pitches.
We finally got more of Wrobo and look at this! The four-seamer was not saved, but led the way at 38% usage + he held the velocity gain at just under 97 mph and had 16-17″ of vert (Coors makes it 13″ because Coors), leading to 7/33 whiffs and fantastic command upstairs. I didn’t love the sinker and cutter over the plate, even if they earned strikes, while the slider, change, and curve left a lot to be desired. That said, it was Coors, the velocity is still there, and I hope he continues to get these opportunities. The next one would be against the White Sox and I am SO in for that…if he actually gets it.
Jordan Leasure (CHW) vs ARI (ND) – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 20 pitches.
Leasure opened for Mike Vasil, who went 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks with a whole lot sinkers getting adoration from Koufax. HAISTBMBWT?! I suggest trying a different brand of butter.
Kris Bubic (KCR) vs TBR (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
He allowed a bomb to Jansen and that was pretty much it. The changeup wasn’t nearly as good as we’ve seen at just 2/15 whiffs, but the sweeper and slider each returned 42%+ CSW marks and were able to live comfortably over the plate. He’s still a little down with his velocity at 91.7 mph (not 92 or flirting with 93), but all is cool right now. It does feel a little precarious though, doesn’t it?
Jacob Latz (TEX) @ BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
Whoa. Latz had himself a no-hitter through six frames until allowing a hit and walk to lead off the seventh before the hook. Of course both runs scored. What’s interesting here is the changeup failing to land low like it has before, but still having success with a 64% strike rate and 6/25 whiffs. Meanwhile, the slider added more than I expected to LHB at a 35% CSW – I was worried he wouldn’t have a great weapon to LHB – and his 95 mph heater was packed with 17-18″ of vert (actually lower than the 18-19″ we normally see). The Rangers are set to have a bit of a logjam in their rotation with Eovaldi and Mahle expected back within a week, though can the Rangers really send Latz back to bullpen when Corbin and Leiter are struggling as they are? Latz would get the Orioles a second time and I think I’m going for it if it’s confirmed. The command wasn’t perfect here and there’s legit potential if he goes BSB with heater and slowball + the slider continues to work against LHB and backdoor against RHB.
Cal Quantrill (MIA) @ SFG (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
Yeaaaah, you’re not rostering The UnQuantrillfiable. You know that. Doesn’t that make him quantifiably irrelevant in fantasy? STOP YUCKING MY YUM.
Logan Allen (CLE) vs TOR (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 104 pitches.
Not much to see here. The heater was able to induce a ton of foul balls (14/34 is absurdly high), while the cutter, sweeper, and changeup were instructed to get the job done. Spoiler alert: They didn’t. Outside of getting a long leash in Cleveland, you should be dodging L.A.
Spencer Strider (ATL) @ NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 91 pitches.
He looked great early, then the wheels came off. His fastball declined to the dreaded 94 mph, his iVB fell to 15-16″ (blegh) and his slider landed for just 52% strikes. The velocity decline is something I’d expect to improve across the second half as he gets his stamina back, though it’s a bit concerning in the short term. He’s not back, y’all. He’s good, but not back. His four-seamer command also needs to step up its game, hot dang.
Justin Verlander (SFG) vs MIA (L) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 86 pitches.
88 mph sliders with decent locations but sadly just 3/18 whiffs while the four-seamer was generally up but wild for a 54% strike rate at 93.8 mph. We want 95 mph and good locations before going after this…unless he gets a team like the White Sox. Suitman whispers into my ear. Oh, he does get the White Sox next? Well alright then, I guess that’s a questionable stream.
Charlie Morton (BAL) vs TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 100 pitches.
He had an annoying fourth frame with a walk, pair of singles, and two outs (FC, Sac Fly) that generated three runs and otherwise, was the same arm with his curve and high heater that has allowed him to plod through outings. It wasn’t the sharpest we’ve seen him, though I think he’s still alright for a repeat matchup against the Rangers.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 94 pitches.
Oh look, a Dusty Donut without Professor Chaos to blame. Nay, this was Doctor Order in charge. Just throw it down the plate. Easy there, tiger. His curve found the zone but allowed a longball, the changeup got too much of the plate at times and…well really the curve is the annoying one. Four-seamers were great per usual and even the slider was decent down low, even if he missed a lot against LHB. Peralta does what he does regardless of his opponent, y’all.
Ryan Bergert (SDP) vs WSN (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 69 pitches.
Bergert took a comeback in this one, and also didn’t have a great game as expected given the torrent of LHB he was forced to face. He’s not the guy you want to chase.
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs ATH (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
Aces gonna allow a pair of two-run HRs. He’s cooked! His velocity has dropped! It’s 97.3 mph and was 96.5 last game. He’s pretty much been 97/98 mph all year. Please don’t do anything silly.
Chris Paddack (MIN) vs SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 80 pitches.
MUCH better. 94 mph, 19″ of vert, 7.1 feet of extension, and all my concerns about his last start thrown out the window. Phew. The harder slider is still here at 88/89 mph and despite allowing a pair of hits, three strikeouts + no longballs = I’m a happy man. The major reason for the mediocre line is a failure to earn whiffs on the split-change that came with three extra less drop this time around. 0/14 whiffs was the result and despite the trio of outs, we want a little more to get to the finish line. I think I’m in for his schedule ahead with @DET, TBR, PIT, and @COL on the horizon.
Trevor Williams (WSN) @ SDP (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 70 pitches.
Remember kids, #NeverTrevor.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.
Oh dear. Is it happening? I’m not sure why Castillo elected to go sinker heavy and pull back on his four-seamer, even if he allowed a HR off the main fastball (his only hit allowed). That sinker returned 4/6 hits on balls in play and on a day when the four-seamer wasn’t running the show, you’d want to see secondaries step up. Sadly, we had 4/37 whiffs between slider and changeup. That’s the real story. When Castillo isn’t forcing success with his four-seamer, there isn’t a backup plan. I think we have two more starts ahead that we should lean into – @TEX and hosting PIT – before @NYY and HOU make me heavily reconsider his roster spot.
Michael McGreevy (STL) vs CHC (ND) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 77 pitches.
The sinker command that he exclusively throws to RHB save for two randos to LHB? Awesome. Everything else? Blegh. At least we didn’t start him against the Cubs, though it’s unclear when he gets another shot. If it’s still a six-man, he could get the Pirates next and I’d be game for that. Don’t hold your breath for that.
Luis Severino (ATH) @ DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 97 pitches.
“Just start Severino on the road.” Naaah. His fastballs are poor and the sweeper is fine, while the cutter isn’t making a large enough impact. Not for me.
Andrew Heaney (PIT) @ MIL (L) – 4.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 85 pitches.
Yes, he has his moments. I remember these moments more. Honestly, that’s a good thing. He’s a pitfall to avoid.
Jameson Taillon (CHC) @ STL (L) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 81 pitches.
Sigh. I was afraid of this even against the Cardinals after Taillon continued to have poor sweeper command to RHB and lost his changeup feel last time to LHB. It was a command struggle again, here without BSB at all to LHB (fastballs and curves all over the place) + cutters and sweepers getting far too much of the zone to RHB. Not a shock to see a trio of longballs here and it’s best to take a break from Taillon right now. He’ll be back soon enough.
Game of the Day
Paul Skenes vs. Jacob Misiorowski – We’re watching this FREE MLB TV GAME live on Playback.tv at 2:00pm ET! Eno Sarris and I are recording an episode of “The Craft” while watching this phenomenal matchup.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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