Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs ATH (ND) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
What a horrible run it’s been for Shota Imanaga. After kicking off the season with a 2.32 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 28% strikeout rate through his first nine games in which he never allowed more than one HR, Imanaga has allowed twelve in his last four, allowing at least two in each. Oh jeez. Well, it’s really eleven with one of his four from last night’s 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches (ND) home game against the Athletics coming from a two-out can-of-corn PCA never saw, leading to two “earned” runs. But I digress – that’s still terrible. What is going on? Do we hold Imanaga?
Yes, we do. Nick! You keep telling us Wrigley is rough in June! You called Imanaga a sell-high before the rough patch! I sure did. I also watched this, and if that ball is caught, Imanaga would have ended the sixth with 2 ER and a sub-1.00 WHIP. But he still would have returned for the seventh. Okay fair. The Careful, Icarus of back-to-back solo shots to lead off the seventh on a pair of terrible pitches (a 3-1 sinker to LHB Soderstrom that leaked to middle-middle + a hanging 1-0 sweeper up to RHB Heim) are deserved, and Imanaga’s low pitch count would have kept him in the game. It’s still a valid point – this wasn’t Imanaga laboring across a start. It was him cruising until some horrible luck and a pair of really bad pitches.
And here’s a fun fact. Not one of his thirty-three four-seamers was punished. You know, the thing that everyone likes to point to as the “problem” with Imanaga. It dominated for a 70% strike rate and 18% SwStr, while the splitter was even better at 79% strikes and a ton of whiffs (10/33!) – it’s “HR” was PCA’s botched play. In fact, the true problems were the sinker and sweeper: His final pitch of the game was the RHB sweeper HR to Heim, and it was the only sweeper thrown to an RHB all game. The other two HRs were poorly spotted sinkers, a pitch he tossed just seven times in the start. In other words, the core skills of Imanaga are very much alive and well (92.2 mph heaters!).
No, he’s not going to return 5-8 ER per game as he has the last four starts. No, the 5.00 HR/9 in those outings is not going to stick around. I totally understand the fear of Wrigley at this time of year, and it could make his ERA elevated near 4.00 for a moment, but the whiffs are present, the WHIP should be good, and it’s the perfect BUY LOW. Yes, his value has plummeted so far that it’s clear you can get him for peanuts now. Do it.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Justin Wrobleski (LAD) @ ARI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 84 pitches.
With every start, Wrobleski’s strength increases. He’s been in his Goku power stance for the last three weeks, slowly ascending his pitch and strengthening his grunts as the aura expands. He was sub-94 mph for a while, but now we’re all the way up to 95/96 mph, and that velocity is 1-3 ticks higher across the board. The slider’s 87/88 mph velocity with 87% strikes is a lovely sight (can you locate them a bit better to RHB, though? You’re making me uneasy letting so many sit middle-middle to RHB), and he’s even testing the waters with his changeups to RHB again. We’re absolutely holding with @PIT, TBR, and @MIN up next.
Jared Jones (PIT) @ HOU (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 74 pitches.
What, you were worried about his Still ILL box score? No need to fret, Jones not only held his 99 mph velocity, but took advantage of domed Houston to exhibit 17/18″ of vert (+2″!) at a 1.8 HAVAA. But it wasn’t good. Yeah, you’re right. 55% strikes and terrible locations led to just 2/31 whiffs, but the velocity allowed his absurd 91 mph slider to crush. He’s also exhibiting 93-96 mph changeups and a filthy 85/86 mph curve, too. He’s a stud, y’all. The four-seamer command is a little off-putting, absolutely, and it does create a Shag Rug-esque floor with his ghastly LAD, Sacré Verde, Coors schedule ahead, and yet I’m doing it. Or fine, just stash him for two weeks if you must. I think the stuff is too good, and he’s not the kind of arm I expect to hold sub 60% strike rates consistently. I should note, we also saw Carmen Mlodzinski return to the club and follow Jones for a four-inning save: 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 55 pitches. Great to see him embrace the sweeper for 65% strikes and 36% usage (it was a miniscule 8% prior) + locate his four-seamer upstairs effectively to LHB. I imagine he’ll play this role plenty with Bubba moving forward as Jones gets stretched out, and there could be some sneaky value there if you don’t expect Bubba to be efficient enough to complete five frames.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs CLE (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 96 pitches.
This was a weird one. His four-seamer worked beautifully for 71% strikes and 9/41 whiffs, the changeup was deadly at 4/31 whiffs and nearly 70% strikes, and his slider was…horrible. We’re talking 1/27 whiffs and a 41% strike rate. Yikes. The man really tried to make it work and wisely pulled it back to just three thrown over his last 29 pitches after the fourth (10% usage in that span), but it bothers me. Can we get one start of Rodón truly feeling comfortable across his main three offerings (four-seamer, slider, change) for just one game? (View Game Card)
Slade Cecconi (CLE) @ NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! A Gold Star to Cecconi for this glorious effort against the Judge-less Yankees (still a legit offense!), and I’m getting massive flashbacks of Aaron Civale in a Cleveland jersey as I watched Cecconi throw 29 cutters and 20 curveballs as his two most thrown pitches, combining for roughly 60% usage. And guess what? Zero hits, 4/5 weak contact, and a near 20% SwStr rate between them. JUST SAYING. I’m a bit surprised he used the hook only for LHB, as it should at least work for surprise called strikes at 77 mph, but he did introduce a slider to the cause at 85 mph and a little extra movement both ways vs. the standard gyro, which returned 100% strikes (two whiffs and two outs in play. NICE.). Does this mean I’m joining the Slade Brigade? Not yet. I like the cutter lean at 88/89 mph a lot + favoring breaking balls at least 50% of the time to both LHB and RHB. I need to see him do it again with success, which may be hard, considering he’ll get the Yankees a second time. They’re going to know what’s up this time around. Let’s wait until after that one. (View Game Card)
J.T. Ginn (ATH) @ CHC (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 88 pitches.
Oh dang, so Ginn is really doing this. We saw the very best start of his life, a fatigued start of pain, a solid outing against the Yankees, and now a Golden Goal in dangerous June Wrigley. Now, the opponents are lovely (Brewers, Pirates, Angels), but all three of his next games are in Sacré Verde. Is that a good enough balance? And here’s the thing: The box score is great for Ginn, but the execution didn’t match. Sub-60% strikes on sinkers, changeups, and sliders, making up 81% of his pitches. This wasn’t the precision of his prime outing, and it may be a little shaky at home. I’d say go for it and see how long this Vargas Rule lasts. After all, he’s been dominant in five straight if you exclude the fatigued outing against the Padres post-prime outing @LAA.
Trevor Rogers (BAL) @ BOS (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
Is this the beginning of the redemption tour? If I were just looking at this outing, I’d say so. Including his two cutters, all five of his pitches returned at least a 73% strike rate. That’s unreal. Maybe too unreal, where I’d want him nibbling a little more and not relying so much on Koufax to get through games, but that control can be adjusted and he was able to live on the edges effectively with his changeup and four-seamer like the good ole days. Throw in a steady 94 mph velocity, and I’m nodding my head when seeing SEA + SDP on the menu. If he’s out there and you need a pitcher with Holly potential, he’s your guy. (View Game Card)
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs SDP (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Wheeler flirted with a no-hitter through five, and you can blame me as I turned the game on in the sixth. This had a tinge of Careful, Icarus as Machado’s two-run shot after a walk to kick off the seventh ruined his goose egg (it was too meaty of an 0-2 fastball), and even with it, you’re so glad you drafted Wheeler. (View Game Card)
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs LAD (ND) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ohhhh BABY. When Nelson is living between the Foul Rynes and not allowing four solo shots in a game, he can come through. It was awesome to see him nail so many sliders right at the bottom of the zone to RHB (a few were floated up and one allowed its sole hit to RHB), and if he can get it just a little lower so it lives in town and down, then we’re cooking with 97 mph gas and tasty sliders. That’s a tasty BBQ.
Adrian Houser (SFG) @ MIL (ND) – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 82 pitches.
The dude went ham on front-hip sinkers to LHB, and just one leaked out enough to allow a LHB single, while the rest were outs, foul, or helping him return an awesome 39% called strike rate. Unfortunately, he also threw four-seamers with a 42% strike rate. His laborious first frame + a two-run shot in the fifth prevented a solid outing, but I do see a little more believability in Houser after this one. Maybe I’ll be down for the Marlins on June 21st. (View Game Card)
Lucas Giolito (SDP) @ PHI (L) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 74 pitches.
I was initially trying to think of Giolito roundup titles I haven’t used across his long career, but his fourth and fifth ruined that plan. At the very least, he’s now flirting with 92 mph heaters (not 90/91!) and mixing in more sliders, which returned a fair number of whiffs but a trio were on floated ones he got a bit lucky with. I’m still out, and I hope he makes me raise both eyebrows against the Reds in Cincy on Tuesday. (View Game Card)
Andrew Morris (MIN) vs KCR (ND) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 48 pitches.
This was a bullpen game, for the most part. Morris showcased some fun velocity at 97/98 mph, but he was wild with just 2/26 whiffs on it, and his cutter was sitting down the pipe, preventing the whifftopia it should have had at 90/91 mph and solid cut with decent depth. If he keeps getting stretched out, I’ll take a longer look, but for now, he’s too volatile without the leash we need.
Mike Paredes (MIN) vs KCR (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 50 pitches.
Paredes came on after Morris and this blurb exists to show you that I saw it and that I don’t want you to think about it. He throws 93/94 mph from an average arm slot and a 1.4 HAVAA, but didn’t get it high enough to matter. It’s not enough.
Chris Sale (ATL) vs TOR (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 108 pitches.
Aces gonna have their second poor outing of the season. Kinda wild it happened in a game where he was up 1-3 ticks on everything, sitting a whopping 97 mph on his four-seamer. When Koufax hates you, it doesn’t matter what you do. Better to be lucky than good.
Kai-Wei Teng (HOU) vs PIT (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
If you blocked out the name and I told you this pitcher threw nearly 50% breakers, would you be shocked if I told you it was a bad night for Lance McCullers Jr.? Yeah, let’s not chase this.
Seth Lugo (KCR) @ MIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 92 pitches.
Yikes. I’ve always wondered if there’s ever been a game with at least one run scored in every team’s frame, and Lugo helped that cause with one run allowed in each of his five frames (The Twins also scored one in the sixth! Sadly, none thereafter). I didn’t see anything truly different with Lugo here, just the same old that got beaten a little more than usual. Or maybe this is the norm. He’s a borderline Toby at this point, it’s up to you for the Rangers in KCR up next.
Coleman Crow (MIL) vs SFG (L) – 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 70 pitches.
Yeaaaah, the Brewers should be eating Crow and move on from Coleman in the rotation, in my view. Drohan and Gasser are better options. This is likely his last start for the foreseeable future and we’re going to move on. The 91 mph fastballs are just not good enough. (View Game Card)
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 8 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 108 pitches.
Welp, Bello is now in Triple-A. He was my reluctant streamer, expecting them to use an opener, and instead, he started the game and was demolished. Remember, if they aren’t in the probable start tier, it means I’m not going for it 50%+ of the time. Anyway, please drop him. K, thx. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Christian Scott vs. Michael King – I want the King to wear his crown + Scott to continue accelerating toward his deserved future.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Terence Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)
