Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Shane Bieber (TOR) vs TBR (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches.
The few four games we saw from Shane Bieber this season after returning from the IL were hard to endure, and I had lost hope in a fantasy-relevant starter down the stretch. Oh how foolish I may have been. Bieber followed up a great six-inning shutout performance with 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 86 pitches (W) against the Rays and you’re wondering if he’s back. He is…ish. He’s ish? Sure.
What makes Bieber the guy you remember? During his prime, it was absurd whiff totals on his slider and curveball both. Last year, it was mostly with his slider, though his introduced a new changeup that helped add to the mix against LHB when his four-seamer couldn’t be trusted. This season, his pitch movement lagged in his early outings, but it returned in his last start and here… it’s back to being a bit worse. Except for one pitch.
His four-seamer is better and not how you think. Generally I care about vert, extension, HAVAA, and velocity, but all of those check out as typical. Nope, the real change is its run. He’s added nearly three inches of horizontal break while keeping most of his vert, making his pitch a legit two-planer and 17/13″ and that’s awesome. It returned a 34% CSW at 44% usage in this one, churning five outs and just one hit on balls in play. It’s aided by a larger lean on his 88mph changeup, which is kinda hot given the small four mph difference from the four-seamer despite 15+ inches of drop differential. Then there’s the cutter hanging around, the slider that he’s not trusting as much as he used to, and, oh right, 3/11 whiffs on his curveball at 10/11 strikes.
In short, it’s a better four-seamer, a worse but still reliable curveball, a good changeup, decent cutter, and a slider he should likely feature more often. He’s living around the edges decently well, and while the whole package doesn’t showcase a true dominating starter like we’ve seen before, this version of Bieber may be a reliable six-inning arm for the next two months. It’s a tough call up next against the strong Nationals offense and I have no issues waiting just one more before trusting Bieber, but I think it’s worth the spec add right now to see if he can replicate this four-seamer and changeup combo, while getting his slider back into the fold. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs MIN (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 97 pitches.
THERE HE IS. His four-seamer is now sitting 99 mph with 99.2 mph on his 90th pitch of the game. His sweeper returned 83% strikes. Curveball? 78% strikes. HE THREW AN IMMACULATE INNING. The Twins are not a good offense. YOU’RE NOT A GOOD OFFENSE. No offense. Are you asking me if I’m offended or just repeated that I have no offense? YOU HAVE NO OFFENSE. I don’t care if it’s Cincy next, this fella is feeling it. Let him RIIIIIIIIDE. (View Game Card)
Randy Dobnak (KCR) @ DET (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 76 pitches.
This is pretty dang cool and you get a very enthusiastic Gold Star for this one. He truly looks like an uncle phoned up to pitch, chuckin’ 89/90 mph heaters with 5.7 feet of extension and getting so much sink on his changeup and true sinker. It’s fun! There are so many ways to be a successful pitcher! Savant is calling all mostly all breakers a sweeper, but I think there’s a curve and sweeper split here that did their job at a 45% CSW across 20 thrown. Now, I’m not going to tell you this is legit, but what he’s doing creates a non-zero chance for six frames with his 71% groundball rate and bowling-ball sinker/change combo. Maybe the Twins roll over slowballs for two straight games? (View Game Card)
Taj Bradley (MIN) @ CLE (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 109 pitches.
This dude was peppering 99 mph DARTS, even hitting 100.4 mph in the first frame. Yeah, but it doesn’t matter how hard you throw ball four. Please, not that again. But yes, the pitch returned a questionable 60% strike rate, but his cutter did its job with a Canibal McSanchez approach at the top of the zone to LHB for 76% strikes, and even his splitter successfully kept hitters at bay. This is good enough for me to keep starting him indefinitely. To the Probably Start tier you go. (View Game Card)
Ian Seymour (TBR) @ TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 87 pitches.
You may have received a shock when you didn’t see Seymour starting this one, but don’t fret, he came in after two innings and it went as perfectly as you could have hoped for…except for his offense failing to score against our featured fella, Mr. Bieber. Seymour had a better feel for his changeup and four-seamer this time around, separating the zone into two triangles of heaters and slowballs like a true fruit ninja pro, while the sweeper and sinker existed. He should be fine for another productive outing against the Rangers up next. Yes, I hope he has an opener again. Sorry, Quality Start league managers. (View Game Card)
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 87 pitches.
He got Singled Out in the first on three singles and a double across his first four batters (the sinker down the pipe to Walker was a very deserved double. The others? Two infield singles and a grounder that barely skirted into the outfield), then cruised through six as the Cardinals knocked themselves into outs constantly. He threw strikes, had a solid changeup, located the sweeper well to RHB, kept the cutter inside to LHB…but yes, he’s not missing many bats outside of the fun sweeper or changeup here and there, which means HAISTBMBWT?! Thing is, the Cardinals attacked a ton, with 6-of-10 batters failing to even see a two-strike count. It’s the new Pfaadt in town – a guy who throws six pitches for strikes and aims to travel through six quickly. Take a break against the Pirates, but he may be worth the stream against the Guardians. (View Game Card)
Troy Melton (DET) vs KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
Melton struggled with his four-seamer in this one, especially to LHB, where it held a horrid 44% strike rate on 28% usage. Yikes. The cutter, splitter, and slider stepped up as best as they could, but all of Melton five hits came against them, while he had no issues at all to RHB. It was a day where he never really found his groove and almost escaped without a chip on his shoulder until he came out for the sixth, where he allowed a single and a HR to leave with an extra two hits and two runs. Careful, Icarus. I don’t think even Melton thought he was going to come out – he sat 96/97 all game, but his first pitch in the sith was 93.9 mph and was smacked for a single. He shouldn’t have been there and WE pay the price. Or something like that. (View Game Card)
Chris Sale (ATL) vs SDP (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 42% CSW, 98 pitches.
Aces gonna earn a PQS with a Golden Goal. He had himself a dumb second frame with a trio of singles, a HBP, and a walk to score all three runs, then allowed two baserunners and recorded ten strikeouts in his other five innings. We’re absolutely fine. (View Game Card)
Michael McGreevy (STL) vs ARI (L) – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
Ouch. This was really a HR away from being normal McGreevy, outside of his four-seamer being a rascal all game with a horrible 39% strike rate at 24% usage. It just kept sailing up and beyond the realm of dreams, like that one time I actually got a super cool balloon in Central Park and accidentally let it go within 30 seconds. I WAS FIVE. I imagine he’ll throw more strikes with the four-seamer in the future (really going out on a limb here) and it means any of CHC, @TOR, or Rockie Road could go his way regardless of this performance. (View Game Card)
Griffin Canning (SDP) @ ATL (L) – 2.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 59 pitches.
We had a glimpse of Kyle Hart in this one as Canning’s opener, but the true headliner was our boredom. Wait, what. Whoops, I meant Sale. On the other team. Nick. Sorry, it was Matt Waldron flexing knucklers for two innings. They went 2/11 strikes. OKAY FINE, I dunno, it just isn’t Canning, alright. As much as I wish it were, but, sadly, his 2025’s first half is oh-so-far away. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Matthew Boyd vs. Jared Jones – One for my Boyd Boyz, one for Mr. Jones and me.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Mathew Tsang/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky
