Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Will Warren (NYY) @ PHI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches.
After hearing his name plenty over the winter and spring, Will Warren finally made his MLB debut on Tuesday against the Phillies after Gerrit Cole was scratched with body fatigue/sickness. The result wasn’t astounding – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 97 pitches – and it was likely just a spot start, though it helped us understand what we could be seeing in the future.
Warren is your standard fastball/change/sweeper arm the Yankees have churned via King and Schmidt in the past. I was a bit surprised to see so many four-seamers from Warren given its terrible shape and far better sinker, but really the change and sweeper are the focus and make for what could be an interesting Toby on a winning club…once he gets a chance.
With the deadline behind us, Warren is the clear next arm for the Yankees once in need. When the time comes (again, Cole likely makes his next start), consider Warren if he faces a middling offense. He can certainly be a sneaky Win arm without giving a major ratio dent.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs WSN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 106 pitches.
And just like that, Nelson got his four-seamer back to the top half of the zone and dominated with it once again. He’ll get the Pirates then Philly and I say go for it against Pittsburgh. The previous outing showed us the floor, I’m leaning toward believing that the previous night was a blip rather than a consistent stumble.
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs MIN (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 96 pitches.
Whoa. A Golden Goal for Manaea as he produces another ridiculous start without any advocacy on my part. He’s a hard one to decipher and the Twins could relate, and they failed to handle the sweeper and four-seamer, two pitches that each returned 50%+ CSW and made up nearly half of Manaea’s offerings. I guess he’s a Holly after all with his 23% strikeout rate. In other words, everything you wanted Zach Eflin to be. I still question if he can keep his hits-per-nine at a career-low, which would elevate his 1.20 WHIP and mid-3s ERA to uncomfortable levels, but you’re obviously rolling with it now against the Cardinals.
JP Sears (OAK) @ SFG (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 95 pitches.
Hot dang, look at you! PL Bot went for this and was massively rewarded with Sears throwing his best changeups of the year and his slider earning 8/12 strikes as the four-seamer lived upstairs for whiffs. Now he gets the White Sox and it’s awfully tempting, though the man is a Cherry Bomb and his track record suggests that these skills won’t return. He’d have a field day if they do, though.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Yuuuuup. The four-seamer dominated upstairs and the curve + slider earned strikes. This is what Gavin should be, save for maybe getting those breakers lower in the future, allowing them to score more than four whiffs between them.
Tyler Holton (DET) vs CLE (ND) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 34 pitches.
Another bullpen game for the Tigers with Flaherty off to Los Angeles. If only Jobe were ready…
Tony Santillan (CIN) vs CHC (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 23 pitches.
He opened for Nick Martinez, who impressed with four shutout frames on the back of cutters + changeups. I’m cool with this and I’m super tempted to give it a shot against the Marlins next week, though his sub-60 pitch count here may suggest he’ll fail to earn a Win, unless opened for once again.
Jonathan Cannon (CHW) vs KCR (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 94 pitches.
Cutters + sweepers over the plate for strikes, sinkers down-and-gloveside to backdoor RHB (ehhh) and changeups heavily away to LHB was the gameplan for Cannon and it absolutely works when he’s able to keep his sinker away from the heart of the zone. It’s hard to tell when he’ll be like this, sadly, which makes him a streamer for volume-focused leagues (QS) and less so in a standard 12-teamer.
Bryce Elder (ATL) @ MIL (W) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
It’s the sinker/slider gameplan once again and he cruised for another start against a good Brewers squad. I wonder if Atlanta will go with Elder or Grant for the next start against the Marlins (or both if ReyLó isn’t healthy) and whoever gets it, I’m in.
Bailey Falter (PIT) @ HOU (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 66 pitches.
Wait. You’re still in Pittsburgh?! NOOOOOO. Maybe the trade to Tampa is coming in the winter. Surely, that’s it. As for Falter, he made the most of his low pitch count and earned himself a Gold Star for this one, taking down Houston. Effective breakers + high four-seamers from Falter generally equates to decent results. Sadly, we don’t frequently see the former.
Lance Lynn (STL) vs TEX (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 87 pitches.
Absurd. The man is on a mission to rid himself of my dumb and imposed “two Ls = three” tagline, though this has all the makings of Koufax’s Grace – a start where Koufax ensures many batted balls find gloves. I’m still awfully disinterested in trusting Lynn. Suitman whispers into my ear. Oh, IL with knee inflammation? Well that’s no fun.
Michael Wacha (KCR) @ CHW (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 89 pitches.
Yep, that’s exactly what Wacha should do against the White Sox. Atta boy. Tigers are next and let’s keep it rolling.
Corbin Burnes (BAL) vs TOR (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
Aces gonna ace and still struggle to pinpoint the cutter. Seriously, the majority of these were middle-height and that’s simply not what the pitch is supposed to do. At least he earned just over a strikeout per inning this time.
Aaron Nola (PHI) vs NYY (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna survive. It’s a Philly in Philly and the Yankees are a tough team to endure. We move on.
Edward Cabrera (MIA) @ TBR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 79 pitches.
He earned strikes. His changeup was hard to hit. Fastballs found the zone. He left early with a trainer. He left early with a trainer?! He tweaked his knee and left the game, which likely makes him hit the IL as we tuck away the ECab breakout for yet another time. Sigh.
David Festa (MIN) @ NYM (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 68 pitches.
Mmmm, this was fun. Sliders dominated in the zone as Festa saved the heater effectively to elevate upstairs, and we saw some vicious changeups along the way, though a 1-2 slowball didn’t escape the zone and landed over the fence instead. He could certainly have gone through the sixth had the Twins not kept a short leash and I see him as a helpful 12-team arm moving forward. He will have some of those ridiculous nights ahead with the Shag Rug sadly still present. The full three-pitch mix with Festa makes me more confident than a standard rookie.
Jeffrey Springs (TBR) vs MIA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 76 pitches.
He’s back and was limited as expected. The sole runs came off a hanging 3-2 changeup that was demolished over the fence and the rest was more or less the same Springs…at two ticks softer on the heater. That pitch was a detriment in the past, I wonder if it’ll be even more now, and with the slider looking a bit mediocre, what I saw was more of a Toby than a legit Holly akin to his early 2023 success. And that’s fine – it’s still value – but let’s temper our expectations.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) @ SDP (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna let Tarik Skubal be the #1 SP next week. But this was a dope start! Yeah, I know. But it’s not demonstrably so and it’s time. Be happy at SP #2 (in front of Wheeler).
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna return a PQS and keep us entrenched in purgatory. We want to believe he’s fully back, and just two four-seamer whiffs ain’t quite it. HOWEVER, the slider velocity is back up to 85/86 mph and I sure hope that means he’s understood the error of his ways as it dipped to 82/83 mph for a few weeks. Now get it back to 86-88 mph…
James Paxton (BOS) vs SEA (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 72 pitches.
The Red Sox wasted no time to get Big Maple to start throwing sinkers instead of the straightforward four-seamer/curve BSB approach and the sinker helped plenty, while the four-seamer got hit when he failed to elevate. That’s a simple problem to fix, knowing you, Pax. Get it together. I think I’d avoid the Royals next time out as they perform well at home, but keep your eye on this.
Max Scherzer (TEX) @ STL (L) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 68 pitches.
Shortly after making a believer out of me, Scherzer failed to maintain the same precision and is now feeling arm fatigue once again. Sigh. The Rangers are in a weird spot now post-deadline and if Scherzer can’t return, you have to wonder if Jack Leiter gets another shot. As for Scherzer, if he starts, you start him. 17 whiffs in 68 pitches, y’all.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs PIT (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 102 pitches.
Blegh. At least he got strikeouts and he had a decent gameplan here with heaters up, sinkers armside, cutters gloveside, and curves + changeups all around. He got Singled Out and that happens, and it’s nice to see what seems like a good approach for once from Hunter. Is this what we’ll always get?
Robbie Ray (SFG) vs OAK (L) – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Noooooo. Easily the most disappointing outing of the night. Ray’s four-seamer still lived upstairs (not as precise, but still in the top half), while the dependable curve we saw last time went just 6/15 strikes (yikes) and his slider was decent, not elite. Sigh. I guess I’ll move you back a few tiers on Monday…I just got so dang amped by that first start, you know? HE. WAS. HIM. If this is just a blip with the curveball (probably not given the multi-year track record of volatility), then Ray will get the AGA tag before September, but this start casts a gloomy haze upon our prophecies of joy.
Joe Ross (MIL) vs ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 87 pitches.
Ross had a moment when he was sinker/slider effectively this year and let’s just be thankful he finally returned to the field after weeks of “He’s almost there!” Maybe he becomes a sneaky streamer.
Justin Steele (CHC) @ CIN (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
Annnnnnd it’s gone. Sorry Steele, the AGA tag has been stripped and you’re moving to Tier 6 on Monday in all likelihood. I wish I had something different to tell you, I truly do. The heater isn’t spotted like before and the slider isn’t overwhelming at the moment. You’re still a solid Holly, just not an ace.
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ BAL (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 90 pitches.
Blegh. It’s Bassitt. It didn’t work today, it’ll likely work tomorrow. That’s it? That’s it.
Matt Waldron (SDP) vs LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 81 pitches.
He needed the knuckler to be the best against the Dodgers for this to work out. Narrator: It wasn’t. No surprises here, he’s still a streaming option n all.
Griffin Canning (LAA) vs COL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
Awwwww. Canning labored through the first two innings, then settled down to grant managers four productive blank frames, but this isn’t the start we envisioned against Rockie Road. The Win was there, waiting for you. You left just a one-run cushion and obviously the pen let it slip through your hands. Sigh.
Cal Quantrill (COL) @ LAA (ND) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 92 pitches.
Why are you still here? Like reading the roundup? No, well yes, but no, why is Quantrill still on the Rockies given Kikuchi, Fedde, Perez, Rogers, Lorenzen, Paxton, Cobb, and Blackburn were all traded away? You know why. IT’S UNREAL. As for Quantrill, the splitter wasn’t great and this was rough. He’ll be better soon enough.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) @ ARI (L) – 3.0 IP, 10 ER, 13 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 67 pitches.
Patrick. Buddy. You just had two productive starts with your cutter as your main offering. Here? Nine thrown as you went sinker/slider. WHY. Because it wasn’t good? Nah, 67% strikes, a single allowed (1 of his 13 hits, of course), and I just don’t understand. YOU FOUND THE THING. DO THE THING.
Game of the Day
Clayton Kershaw vs. Dylan Cease – I want more TATIAGA and here’s to Cease forcing the AGA tag with domination against the Dodgers.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)