Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Nick Lodolo (CIN) @ PIT (L) – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 91 pitches.
What are we to do with Nick Lodolo? You expected dominance against the Pirates on Thursday and instead got served a Dusty Donut of 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 91 pitches. Wait, quick maths tells me that’s an unlucky ERA with a near 1.00 WHIP and nine strikeouts! That’s not so bad! Exactly.
Believe it or not, Lodolo had just two baserunners before the fifth and had a man on first with two outs before the cataclysmic events – a walk, infield single, HBP – and then was pulled. Only one ball left the infield at the hands of Lodolo.
It was some poor luck and his three final runs came at the hands of a bases-loaded double shortly after getting replaced. Lodolo was an out away from five luscious frames, with the sixth likely to come. His four-seamer was mostly spotted well, the curve and change were good, and he simply lost some batters on a day when being Effectively Wild was more like Almost Good Enough Wild. Don’t do anything rash, and hold Lodolo for Oakland up next. He’s more what the strikeout suggests than the ERA.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Paul Skenes (PIT) vs CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He hit 100 mph and sat 98.6 mph – not 97/98 + he hasn’t been limited. Yet. Life is swell.
Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs CLE (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna…uhhh. Hmmm. I can’t award this. Yes, on paper, all that’s poor were the two strikeouts, but let’s be real, this was not Gerrit close to his best. He fought with his secondaries all game and had to go curveball-heavy to get to the finish line. Show me your acedom next start and I’ll forget all about this.
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) @ BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Well, look at you. The four-seamer and cutter were up, the curve and change down (BSB!) and he threw 64% strikes. There you go, that’s The Pasta Pirate cookin’, creating the perfect Al Dente for your squads. Is he still a Cherry Bomb? Maybe? It’s the Phillies next and it seems like he’s more matchup-agnostic than most. I’m starting to believe that Arrighetti has found a way to be more consistent with his arsenal over the plate, but that doesn’t mean his floor has been swept clean.
Miles Mikolas (STL) vs MIL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
No, the velocity jump didn’t hold. Not a big shock, but a bit disappointing of course. The result wasn’t, though, as Mikolas stayed upstairs with all his heaters, with a scattering of breakers down at times. He’s a Werewolf so plan accordingly.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 92 pitches.
This was Professor Chaos and I hate it. But the ratios! Yeah, he got a bit lucky here. 1/35 whiffs across his secondaries with a…31% strike rate. That’s just…dumb. The Cardinals were able to sit on the heater, but when Peralta served them down the heart of the plate, they found gloves. Koufax saved you today, Peralta.
Tyler Holton (DET) @ CHC (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 9 pitches.
He opened for Kenta Maeda as expected, and his partner couldn’t hold up his end of the bargain – 5 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Womp womp, this was the first clunker of Maeda’s time as a follower, but it could still work out for those in max-start leagues against the Angels next. Too risky for your standard 12-teamer, though.
Ryan Burr (TOR) vs LAA (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 29 pitches.
He opened for the The Fratty Pirate, who hurled five shutout frames out of nowhere, stealing a Win with an 86.8 mph heater. What a dude. No, we are not picking up Ryan Yarbrough.
Patrick Corbin (WSN) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 95 pitches.
This is today’s obvious Gold Star as Corbin actually did what he’s supposed to do. This one saw a 40% CSW cutter thrown a fourth of the time and at two ticks harder with less vertical break. Pretty cool to see Corbin still experimenting and I’m a believer that the path to Corbin becoming relevant once again hinges on that cutter becoming a major focus. Now let’s see him use it again and not against Rockie Road. And probably five more times after that.
Osvaldo Bido (OAK) vs TBR (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
Atta boy Bido, way to take full advantage of the Rays and come through as a streaming option. This was actually his best start of the year in my view, with a BSB approach as the changeup was heavily involved down and in town. The four-seamer was shockingly spotted consistently upstairs as well, the cutter hugged gloveside…uh…am I actually buying this now? At the very least, let’s Vargas Rule it, even as he heads to Cin City next. I know how much of a 360–wait, that’s just spinning once and being in the same place. I know how much of a 180 this is from my previous take, but he really did deserve this one.
Luis Severino (NYM) @ SDP (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
Way to survive, Severino. That sweeper was on point down-and-gloveside, while the fastballs weren’t as consistent inside the zone as they usually are. Interesting to see him lean heavily on sinkers inside a ton, though they didn’t return the results we wanted. I think we keep rolling with him against the Sneks – he’s in a good spot commanding his heaters, sweepers, and cutters.
Justin Steele (CHC) vs DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 94 pitches.
Yesssss. A King Cole for Steele is a lovely thing and I’m blown away (like the Tigers) by Steele’s four-seamer, which earned 14 called strikes and whiffs each. The slider hung around, but the Tigers couldn’t figure out the fastball and that’s that. It’s not the ultra command guy of old (this is ultra control), which does give me pause for a future AGA label, but he’s obviously a lock in your lineups for the Pirates next.
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs PHI (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 94 pitches.
When can we start considering AGA for Mr. Crescendo? Spencer holds a 2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 32% strikeout rate, and 3% walk rate across his last eight starts, boasting a 17% SwStr rate in that time, including starts against the Phillies (twice), Padres, Mets, and Coors. The slider and curve are legit, the four-seamer is finding ways to prevent balls in play (just two in this one!), the cutter is a solid LHB nullifier, and the splitter can surprise at times, like this one with 8/15 strikes (we’ll take that!). Oh, and on a team that should get Wins. Let’s not forget to add another Gallows Pole award to the collection. He’s dope y’all and makes us feel dope.
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs NYM (L) – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 106 pitches.
Aces gonna ace and also underwhelm? Ultimately, he was Singled Out, but he couldn’t figure out a good approach against LHB, allowing five of his nine hits against LHB and failing to feature anything productive outside of four-seamers poorly spotted over the plate. He. Needs. A. Cutter. Just saying.
Cal Quantrill (COL) @ WSN (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 84 pitches.
Hey, that’s solid from The UnQuantrillfiable! Too bad the splitter isn’t a stud pitch anymore. Welp, see ya later.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) @ ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 95 pitches.
A VVPQS with eight strikeouts is a bit of a Dusty Donut, though I was heavily impressed by Sánchez’s changeup command and his slider earning seven whiffs OUT OF NOWHERE. It’s the Astros and Atlanta next and I’m still rolling with him. The ratios are getting a little tougher to endure, I know, but I think it all evens out just fine + the Win chance is too good.
Gavin Williams (CLE) @ NYY (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 98 pitches.
It’s an elite four-seamer that needs more from his secondaries – three of his four hits were off either the curve or changeup, while the four-seamer dominated across 46 pitches for a 20% Swstr rate and 67% strikes. The curve can’t go 5/15 strikes (and a meatball for a hit), while the changeup is blegh and allowed a HR. The cutter FINALLY worked, though. Nearly 70% strikes and I wonder if Williams can act like a right-handed Garrett Crochet. They have similar velocity & extension (Gavin sat 97.4 mph y’all) and Crochet’s leap came when he mastered the cutter inside the zone, dropping his other offerings. And Crochet is a touch better at locating the heater. I see that path and I’m curious whether that can unlock as soon as his next start. That cutter becoming a strike pitch is truly the final piece of the puzzle, who cares about the curve.
Jeffrey Springs (TBR) @ OAK (L) – 3.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
Blegh. The fastball worked, the changeup and slider didn’t hold up their ends of the deal – the change and slider allowed four hits combined down the pipe, leading to most of the problems here. I was leaning into his command being elite after his last start and I feel foolish after seeing this one. That said, the heater was still solid, as he got a bit unlucky with a few hits, and I don’t expect that changeup to be as poor moving forward…which is in Seattle next. Love that.
Brock Burke (LAA) @ TOR (L) – 1.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 28 pitches.
Huh. The Angels and Jays had a gentlemen’s agreement to start openers, which made way for Griffin Canning in the third. How did it go? It went beautifully: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 74 Pitches. Whoa. Yeah. He got away with some fastballs over the plate, but mostly hugged the edges incredibly well with the offering, while he casually tossed sliders and changeups into the zone. It honestly seemed like the normal Canning, but it worked this time and maybe it’ll work against the Tigers…? He’s got a good Win chance and is interesting for max-start leagues, but less so for QS leagues.
Corbin Burnes (BAL) vs HOU (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 94 pitches.
Jeeeeez, I think I have to strip you of your AGA tag, Burnes. You’re an excellent Holly and not the super dominant stud, holding just a 22.5% strikeout rate this year, though that’s in the 89th percentile for total strikeouts given your lack of IL stint and being 4th in innings. That said, Burnes now has a 6.49 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 20% strikeout rate across his last six starts, which just one game under 3 ER and only two of more than five strikeouts…and now it’s the Dodgers. You’re no longer an ace that makes me ignore that matchup.
Game of the Day
Ryne Nelson vs. Brayan Bello – It’s a monumental start for both to prove their worth. They both have it in them, with the Green Monster as their biggest foe.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)