Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ SEA (ND) – 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 103 pitches.
I hate leading with guys inside my Top 20 SP, but we have to have a serious talk about Zack Wheeler, who entered yesterday’s game with a 6.64 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, and 12% walk rate across his previous five games without completing the sixth inning once. To put that into perspective, Wheeler had pitched at least six innings in 87% of his previous 15 starts of the season, excluding the limited Still ILL outing of five frames that kicked off his season. I was optimistic Wheeler would turn it around during a date @TEA on Monday, and that hope faded fast with a 5 ER first inning, leading to the worst game of his season: 4.0 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 5 BBs, 4 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 103 pitches. Uh oh.
Say what you want about the 2-HR bamboozlin’ of the first inning or the back-to-back jacks to lead off the fifth that directed him to the showers, Wheeler wasn’t pitching like the stud of the first half. His RHB approach is failing him, with far fewer strikes on fastballs, which is the bread-and-butter of Wheeler’s success. His sinker is supposed to end at-bats quickly by jamming hitters, and the four-seamer should put batters away upstairs. Hits weren’t the issue here, but the failure to end at-bats quickly led to four walks to RHB, including the sweeper failing him twice when needed. That’s so not Wheeler.
It was the opposite against LHB. When Wheeler typically allows hits to LHB, it’s down-and-away, generally with one of his four-seamer, cutter, or splitter. However, he left far too many pitches up and over the plate here, and the Mariners pummeled him for seven hits, none down-and-away. NONE.
Something is off. Wheeler’s command is the oft-overlooked part of his skill-set, keeping four-seamers upstairs that maximize his 7.2 feet of extension and elite 1.9 HAVAA at 95 mph, pairing sinkers and sweepers off it to RHB to surprise them in and out, while cutters, splitters, and curveballs split the zone to LHB, always avoiding the heart of the plate. And the thing is, Wheeler did that a fair amount here, but the pitches blurred as they hit the page, spreading more than usual.
The Angels are up next. I think I still start him there – he’s still great at suppressing hits to RHB – and I hope the command is back to normal. If he’s still struggling to hold off walks and pitches are frequently drifting over the plate, I’m benching after against Atlanta. I sure hope it doesn’t come to that. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Kevin Gausman (CHC) @ ARI (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 94 pitches.
THERE HE IS. It was a combination of the Sneks’ ultra passivity for his four-seamer (39% called strikes is hilariously high) and Koufax finally granting him the favors he deserves. Seriously, nothing has changed here outside of the Cubs’ defense helping as we expected them to + the Diamondbacks taking more pitches than usual. In other words, don’t expect routine King Cole awards, but this is closer to Gausman’s ability than the 9 ER combined in his previous two games. (View Game Card)
Carson Whisenhunt (SFG) vs CIN (ND) – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 47 pitches.
Whisenhunt was sitting 93/94 mph, heading upstairs with four-seamers, and landing his changeup in the lower half. I was moving up in my seat and then…he was removed with left elbow pain. Life is pain. I wouldn’t expect him to return in the near future, if at all this year. (View Game Card)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs BOS (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 102 pitches.
Atta boy Sandy. After splitting the zone in half with his pitches to LHB last game, he was able to keep everything nearly exclusive to the-down-and-armside half this time around. Now it’s the lowly Nationals crew and there’s no way you’re stopping this. It’s a 1.99 ERA, 1.00 WHIP across his last ten games, averaging nearly 7 IP per start. And a 19.6% strikeout rate. Sure, but more frames = averaging over five strikeouts per game. That’s fine. (View Game Card)
Zebby Matthews (MIN) @ ATH (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 105 pitches.
WHOA. This might be the best start I’ve seen from Zebby in his career. His Gallows Pole was a product of elite sliders located down-and-away to RHB for 5/17 whiffs + five more to LHB – two beautifully spotted down and, uh three at the very top of the zone. Okay, that’s not sustainable, right? No, it’s not, but there’s more to like! He’s up to 96 mph again, the sinker held a 90% strike rate and 50% CSW , his changeup was well spotted to LHB for plenty of strikes, and his fastball was a bit lucky to return four outs on five balls in play. Wait that’s not—It was all in Sacré Verde, too. Now, I need to express that 23 whiffs is nearly 50% of the total whiffs he had earned over his last six starts, which includes a 15-whiff game. I can’t tell you it’ll be replicated next time out against the Tigers (will they send as many RHB to the plate?), but it may be worth a shot after featuring peak slider feel. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ SDP (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 91 pitches.
Hmmmm. That’s sub-nine whiffs per game for Ashcraft across his last seven starts, and I’m going to blame the high 50% fastball usage when his slider and curveball are so clearly better offerings (even with 98 mph velocity!). I’m glad the slider is back to earning whiffs against RHB and the curveball worked to LHB, but that slider failed to earn a single strikeout on the game (0/9 putaway rate), matching the 0% rate of his fourteen fastballs. Hey Ashcraft, mind throwing more than 57% breakers in two-strike counts? Just keep throwing em if they spit on one. Doubling-up has proven to be successful. K thx. (View Game Card)
Parker Messick (CLE) @ LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
I wonder. Does Messick deserve AGA, too? I mean, 2.50 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 26% strikeout rate across 155 innings this year with zero signs of letting up. Then again, this was 94 mph (not 95) and his fastball failed to return a single whiff. Fun to see the cutter get back into action, though, and I’ll just treat him as the king of the Holly arms for now. (View Game Card)
Drew Rasmussen (TBR) @ DET (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. His cutter has returned fewer whiffs and strikes over his last five games, but I see it as a small blip and not something to be concerned about. This is a classic Rasmussen line. (View Game Card)
Ranger Suarez (BOS) @ MIA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
Ehhhh, this was weird. Sinkers away to LHB don’t sit right with me, and of a reliable curve, everything was off against RHB. I’m worried. (View Game Card)
Cade Cavalli (WSN) vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 93 pitches.
What, that’s it? It was Rockie Road, dangit! Jokes aside, it feels like he deserves AGA with his new skills, but the wise thing to do is wait until next Friday when he gets the Dodgers after the Marlins this Saturday. You’re two starts away, Cavalli. (View Game Card)
Kumar Rocker (TEX) @ CHW (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
Ayyyy there he is! He turned to the cutter a bit more with a heavy LHB lineup and it helped plenty as the sinker is still highly questionable to opposite-handed batters. The slider is getting whiffs galore per usual, too, and Rocker is holding onto his HIPSTER label with his second game of 8+ strikeouts all year. Gotta have something to chase, right? (View Game Card)
Robbie Ray (SDP) vs PIT (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 99 pitches.
OH DANG. The sinker was barely touched to RHB! Just three thrown as Ray went HAM on changeups (46% usage and 47% strikes lol) with high four-seamers, 11 curveballs and…three sliders that were all easily taken for balls (okay, one wasn’t bad under the zone away at 1-1, but the other two were terrible wastes). He’s still chiseling away. Remember, sculptures are just hunks of rock until they take shape. This is a good sign and I’m still shocked he holds a 1.94 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across his last 12 games since June 16th. (View Game Card)
George Klassen (LAA) vs CLE (L) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 90 pitches.
I loved what we’ve seen from Klassen across his last two outings, but I was concerned about this one. But it’s the Guardians! Yeah, and they love platooning their hitters. Klassen has a fantastic RHB approach via four-seamers for strikes and elite 90 mph gyro (true gyro!) sliders, but there’s nothing else to turn to for LHB. He tried some changeups and sinkers, but the former allowed two hits, the latter was thrown just five times (with a hit), and he struggled with the four-seamer. Fortunately, the slider is still a weapon, but this is the biggest flaw with Klassen that he’ll have to fix if he wants to become something legit. He’s sure to get plenty of LHB against the Yankees, too, and I’d hold off on that. (View Game Card)
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. It wasn’t the smoothest start and 102 pitches for five frames isn’t the best showcase of dominance, but he got there. The four-seamer is back to filling the zone without fear and if the splitter or changeup could perform better than 54% strikes, we could have seen six, easily. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) vs TBR (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks – 0 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 84 pitches.
Sigh. It’s a VVPQS due to a HR to lead off the seventh before getting the hook, but that’s not important right now. It’s not? Uhhh, did you look at that full line? Yeah, HAISTBMBWT?! Yeah, now look past that. ZERO WHIFFS?! There we go. WHAT. ON. EARTH. I don’t recall ever seeing zero whiffs on 80+ pitches before in the history of doing this roundup. If you’ve been looking for a sign to not hold onto Valdez, don’t be Joe Young. Don’t ignore this massive earthquake after you asked. (View Game Card)
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs CHC (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 99 pitches.
I know it doesn’t sound like it, but I’m generally a fan of a solid Toby. They are sneaky streamers and get more value than expected in many situations. With that in mind, you may understand my sadness watching Kelly do what he wants to do with his changeup and slider and still struggle to return the value we’re looking for. That said, he was one out away from six frames of two-run ball before a single knocked him out of the game, followed by a longball that drove in his final run. That would have been a Bailey Special and maybe I’m being a bit dramatic over one extra hit. He does head to Oracle Park next… (View Game Card)
Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs MIN (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
This is like going to an Amon Amarth concert and expecting sunshine and rainbows. (View Game Card)
Ryan Feltner (COL) @ WSN (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 103 pitches.
Even outside of Coors and against the lowly Nationals. Sigh. I’m curious how Mason Adams performs in his MLB debut today. (View Game Card)
Chase Burns (CIN) @ SFG (L) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 64 pitches.
Aces go–wait. I thought we were past the lower velocity and terrible outings?! Burns sat 97 mph (not 98) and was bamboozled with four hits before recording his first out, then allowed a three-run shot in the second on a terrible 2-2 four-seamer middle-down. He’s having trouble getting his four-seamer upstairs and the changeup’s reintroduction in the second half has provided little support. If the slider were a 70% strike pitch and not 54%, he could mask this better, and we should all expect it in the future. However, the issue is still present: His four-seamer holds an 8% SwStr rate for the season with a terrible 14% putaway rate. His slider gets it done at an extraordinary rate (32% for a season is elite), and that heater is all that’s holding him back. (View Game Card)
José Urquidy (CHW) vs TEX (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 93 pitches.
Awwww. I’m happy they let Urquidy properly start this time, but the skills weren’t as exciting as we saw in his six innings of bliss. I originally had him on The List in hopes it would replicate, but he’ll be removed before today’s update. The secondaries didn’t do enough and he didn’t sneak in the fastballs well enough. It’s not out of the question he does well against the Twins, but it’s not worth it. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Tyler Glasnow @ Atlanta Braves – It’s the return of Glasnow! He threw 77 pitches in his last rehab start, which could mean 80+, or the Dodgers could keep him limited to not push it and take it slow before their playoff run.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Photo courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)
