Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs CHW (ND) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 70 pitches.
Hey y’all. I think it’s time to move on from Ranger Suarez. I’m not saying he can’t be productive moving forward (he likely will at some point!) but after 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 70 pitches (ND) against the White Sox (in one unreal game), Suarez simply doesn’t look like the arm he needs to be.
He’s been the extreme version of a Vargas Rule. Not in that we expect him to be poor often, but rather that his stuff doesn’t suggest he should excel. It’s in his ability to work the edges to both sides of the plate with a variety of offerings, and it has been an undulating skill across his career. Unfortunately, his injury in early July was the wall I talk about in a Vargas Rule that disrupts them from their rhythm, their incredible feel to execute their arsenal to outperform their velocity and movement. We waited patiently for his return on July 26th, and despite a successful four-inning outing of 64 pitches, we’ve now seen two more starts hovering around the same pitch count.
He needs the pitch separation of his cutter and sinker. Low changeups and breakers. Called strikes on the edges. Jammed contact. Until I see that again from Suarez, I cannot recommend him moving forward, and with the end of the season (or your fantasy regular season!) quickly approaching, you’re better off chasing an arm now who is looking like the best version of themselves. So what, you drop Suarez and he becomes solid again in two weeks, you won’t be missing a whole lot of value if there’s only four more weeks left in your season, and that’s if you make it that far in the playoffs.
Do what’s right for you. Don’t rule out the chance of a rebound as soon as next time out against the Blue Jays, but also don’t overlook that guy you really want to add, either. (View Game Card)
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Dylan Cease (TOR) @ CHC (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 104 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Cease threw 65% strikes on the four-seamer and 72% strikes on the slider, and even with a poor showing with his slowball, it doesn’t matter if those two pitches are cooking. But his velocity was down 1-2 ticks! He ramped up throughout the start, exactly what studs should do. He was sitting 97 mph by the end of it after initially around 94/95 mph. We’re all good here. (View Game Card)
Framber Valdez (DET) @ SEA (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 95 pitches.
This was hilarious. Sure, 61% curveball strikes, but very few whiffs, and Valdez needed four double plays to escape Seattle without a run crossing home. Koufax, you rascal. Maybe it’ll get his confidence back to actually give me something believable next, just as long as we all acknowledge this wasn’t it. Five strikeouts in four whiffs?! Talk about punting over the coverage. Gasp. Oh jeez, I’ve been talking too much to our fantasy football sister site, QB List. (View Game Card)
Martín Pérez (ATL) vs MIA (ND) – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 35 pitches.
This one was shortened by a rain delay as Pérez was pitching yet another gem despite getting DFA’d by Atlanta near the start of the year. I still can’t believe that happened. I understand if you want to start him against the Mets next time out. (View Game Card)
Michael Wacha (KCR) vs MIN (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 16% CSW, 94 pitches.
This was a day of few whiffs and fewer strikeouts, and three walks to one strikeout is an atrocity from Wacha. HAISTBMBWT?! At least you got solid ratios along the way, and this had a bit of Blame it on the Twins attached to it. Not great to see right before getting the Dodgers, but if you can stomach that, it may be a two-step hosting the Athletics and Tigers the following week. (View Game Card)
David Peterson (CHC) vs TOR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 89 pitches.
Wow. Look Mets players, if you leave town for Chicago, do you see how they treat you? You can have a 2.00 WHIP and still boast a lower ERA at 1.80. Yes, even if you fail to locate your fastballs nearly as well as you had in previous outings. It’s a depleted Nationals team, but I’d still be cautious starting Peterson there after looking far worse than before. (View Game Card)
Ryan Johnson (LAA) @ BAL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 78 pitches.
This may be a showcase of how poor the Orioles offense is right now. Five walks. One strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!). And just one earned run to his name. Yeeeeesh. (View Game Card)
Walker Buehler (SDP) @ ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 76 pitches.
So much blegh today. Yes, it worked out across four innings. Kinda interesting seeing him pull away from his sweeper and curveball in the process, but hot dang is he as milquetoast as it gets. (View Game Card)
Dustin May (MIL) vs PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 97 pitches.
It was Dustin’s first start with Milwaukee and despite rarely seeing changes in a pitcher’s first start with a team when moving mid-season, May featured 13%+ more cutters and they were hot. 80% strike rate with solid whiff numbers, but why just five strikeouts? Because he’s still struggling to use his sweeper to RHB (0% usage! WHY?!) and it led to a 36% overall putaway rate, which is lower than his already-low 43% clip for the season (we want to see 50-55% for a guy with May’s stuff. Give him another outing or two with the Brewers and I bet they’ll figure it out. (View Game Card)
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) vs WSN (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
He’s vying for the AGA tag again and this isn’t helping. Yet another game of a destructive WHIP, and it’s 1.39 across his last four games, which was the biggest concern entering the year that I hate we’re seeing it come to fruition at all. This start was a product of few changeup strikes and that likely shouldn’t stick around. I’m still starting him and expecting better, but yes, I feel your pain. (View Game Card)
Janson Junk (MIA) @ ATL (L) – 3.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 47 pitches.
Junk was on the other side of the Pérez rain delay, but it’s not like he was pitching well before the weather-assisted hook. Just 1/47 whiffs for a guy with his stuff is as PEAS as it gets. (View Game Card)
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs ATH (W) – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
Look at Abbott, giving us a slightly better VPQS and a dub. This was really just a poor fourth inning with a string of hits from the Athletics and he was able to cruise otherwise. He’s the same dude he’s always been. (View Game Card)
Bailey Ober (MIN) @ KCR (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 74 pitches.
We’re at 87/88 mph but who really cares about #OberVeloWatch2026. I deleted that Insta page ages ago. I’m the one nerding out about a pitcher returning a PQS without a walk, strikeout, or HR. THE OLD SCHOOL PITCHER COMETH. (View Game Card)
Brandon Young (BAL) vs LAA (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 98 pitches.
This feels like a participation Gallows Pole trophy for Young, who had to deal with more RHB than usual and suffered for it. He’s had his success keeping heaters up and splitters down to LHB, while the slider command is fine but doesn’t fool many. That heater was fantastic here, though, with a 28% SwStr rate and 65% strikes and I still wonder if I’ve been too hard on him. It’s not easy to have a fastball that performs this well consistently. I’m down to let him fly against the Twins and two games against the Rays. (View Game Card)
Kohl Drake (ARI) vs SDP (L) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 17% CSW, 82 pitches.
Yeaaaaaah, no thanks. You can squint and see what he’s trying to do around the edges, but the execution is not close for this soft-tossing southpaw. My voice is getting worn out with how much I’ve had to yell HAISTBMBWT?! today. (View Game Card)
Bryce Miller (SEA) vs DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 93 pitches.
It looks worse than it was. Despite the velocity still sitting below 96 mph, this was the best command I’ve seen from Bryce since he “lost it”. Four-seamers up, secondaries down and commanded well, and if not for a rough first frame of 3 ER (including a two-run shot off a 2-1 cutter away to Dingler that was the only cutter he threw all game. “Welp, not throwing that thing again.”), Miller was impressive as he settled down for 1 ER in four frames after. Now, it was his home park n all and he gets two on the road in the Bronx and in Milwaukee, but I think I’m still giving it a go. Play it safe if you can, of course. (View Game Card)
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) @ MIL (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 82 pitches.
A King Cole for this? I guess so. I’m not in love with his breaking ball performance once again and until he’s able to truly take over with his curveball or slider, then he’ll be far from his hope of an AGA tag. I think it’s generally safe to believe that monster hook or 90+ mph slider will be highly effective soon, and maybe it’ll be against the Marlins or Tigers ahead. I’m still starting him. (View Game Card)
Nolan McLean (NYM) @ CLE (W) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 94 pitches.
Ouch. This was a proper test for McLean as he was served a full helping of LHB with nay a RHB in sight. What should have been an exhibition of strong cutters, curveballs, and sweepers became a focus on four-seamers and sinkers, with curveballs failing to do what they were told. That trio failed to return 60% strikes each, and I’m still waiting to feel great about McLean. At least you got eight strikeouts as the stuff is still there, but hot dang, he should be glorious. WHERE IS THE GLORY?! (View Game Card)
Mason Barnett (ATH) @ CIN (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 82 pitches.
Barnett is an interesting arm who I’ll continue to observe as he gets stretched out by the Athletics, and I’ll let you know when the 95 mph cut-fastball with a wide range of movement translates into something actionable. Don’t hold your breath. (View Game Card)
Foster Griffin (CLE) vs NYM (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.
Womp womp. It’s sad to see a traded pitcher fall on his face during their debut, but this wasn’t out of the blue. It’s his fourth straight game of 8 whiffs or fewer, and while he normally has something among his vast arsenal to pull out from his back pocket to keep the whiffs afloat, Griffin is finding lint instead. Ohhh that’s where I left it! It’s the first real tough stretch for Griffin and I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can come out the other side of it with a solid schedule of @DET + SFG on the docket. (View Game Card)
Luis Castillo (CHW) @ BOS (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 71 pitches.
Yeaaah, Castillo only had value as a possible stream against a poor team in his home park. This isn’t destined to work out. (View Game Card)
Miles Mikolas (WSN) @ PHI (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 12 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.
You’re still here? It’s Over. Go home. Go. (View Game Card)
Game of the Day
Drew Rasmussen vs. Logan Gilbert – Duuuuuuuude.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch.tv livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 10:00 am – 12:00 pm ET Monday through Friday.
Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
