Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Monday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Luis Morales (ATH) @ STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches.
It’s September and it’s that time of the year where unknown arms suddenly pop up and can be taken advantage of by attentive managers who haven’t moved onto another sport. Luis Morales sure looks like one of those young pitchers stepping into the limelight after his 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 91 pitches (W) performance in St. Louis on Monday.
He certainly passes the eye test, too. With a 97+ mph four-seamer, a 90 mph change for LHB, and a pair of breakers to RHB (a bendy slider and a -19″ (!) sweeper), Morales has clear weapons that make his eight strikeouts understandable in a heartbeat. The biggest concern has been his command, especially given the poor shape on his four-seamer that requires elevation to exploit the pitch’s sole exceptional feature under the hood: a 1.5 HAVAA.
While he didn’t elevate it quite enough to earn whiffs – 1/49 on the night with the sole whiff coming from 99 mph down-and-away – and was hittable enough to allow four of his five hits, its velocity opened the door for his secondaries to feast, and let me tell you, they arrived with teeth bared. His sweeper returned a whopping 52% CSW, the rare slider earned 4/8 whiffs and a trio of strikeouts, and the changeup recorded five outs on just eleven thrown. In short, the fastball set the tone, didn’t get punished, and batters were helpless against a heavy flow of competitive secondaries.
The Shag Rug is still very present, though with a schedule of @LAA, Reds Carpet, and @PIT (twice away from Sacré Verde!), Morales seems like an easy pickup across most leagues. Yes, you can drop that pitcher you don’t feel comfortable starting right now despite how they carried you all year. These are the moves that win championships.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Shane Baz (TBR) vs SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 83 pitches.
Ayyyy, he succeeded at home! It was refreshing to watch Baz locate his curveball down to RHB for the first time in a while, allowing him to reduce his four-seamer usage heavily to just 18% to RHB, while he elevated it consistently to LHB without a hit allowed. The cutter still has room to grow without consistent movement (it floats a bit too often for my liking), and the changeup feel can be better with just a handful properly down-and-away to LHB, but progress is progress. Suitman whispers into my ear. He sat 98.1 mph?! Oh snap, that’s over a tick up from the 96/97 mph we normally see. The curve’s 87 mph velocity was two ticks up as well, and the cutter’s 93 mph was nearly three ticks higher. Well I’ll be. And the changeup? Uhhh, exactly the same at 89.4 mph, but that doesn’t matter. It sure makes you tempted to start him in Tampa against the Guardians on Saturday, doesn’t it?
Andrew Alvarez (WSN) vs MIA (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 81 pitches.
Oh look, another southpaw making his MLB debut and overperforming with highly suspect stuff. That said, all his offerings drop more than expected and Alvarez did a great job of avoiding the heart of the plate. Curves and sliders landed low at will and his 27% strike rate four-seamer (yep) was part of the plan as it landed just out of the zone upstairs (0% chase) or below, making batters antsy. It’s a bit like the Neckbeard approach. The changeup and sinker weren’t much of a factor here and I’d be awfully cautious against a team that doesn’t rhyme with Carlins now that he has taken over Gore’s spot in the rotation. His next start against the Cubs is absolutely out of the question, but maybe the Pirates after…
Fraser Ellard (CHW) @ MIN (ND) – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 35 pitches.
Civale was released, making this a bullpen game for the SlySox. We did see Wikelman González follow Ellard, but it was just 1.1 frames and under 30 pitches. Maybe he gets stretched out…? Doesn’t matter to me.
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs TOR (ND) – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He didn’t average above 100 mph on the heater this time around. YOU’RE SLACKING!
Chris Bassitt (TOR) @ CIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 107 pitches.
We’ll take this all day. No, it’s not a Win and yes, he got away with a ton on his sinker, but it’s better to be lucky than good, right? Not to mention, seeing 2+ whiffs on four pitches is classic Bassitt, including the curve with a 63% strike rate. Maybe he has turned a corner, but it’s not wise to bank on that against the Pinstripes on Sunday.
Kai-Wei Teng (SFG) @ COL (W) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 85 pitches.
Wow, this actually worked in Coors. Enjoy that Gold Star, Teng. You can put it right next to your King Cole and make sure to jab at your bullpen for scoring both inherited runners in the sixth. And here I am, in the sixth, wondering if I’m flapping too close to the sun. Careful, Icarus, am I right? For the unaware, Teng throws breakers aplenty with mediocre fastballs and that sweeper returned 12/41 whiffs at 48% usage in this one while the curve did a terrible job supporting it with four hits and a strikeout on thirteen thrown. If he has the pair working well, he can return strikeouts, but it’s a coin flip each time with a lower floor than most. @STL is next, though, which makes for a sneaky stream in deeper formats.
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs BAL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 91 pitches.
Sigh. There’s always something, you know? Sure, a Gallows Pole, whoop de doo, those ratios hurt and seven strikeouts aren’t the anvil they need to be to even the scales. But fine, Coors + Rockie Road is next and I’m still trucking forward with this HIPSTER.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) @ SDP (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 84 pitches.
This wasn’t nearly as fun as his return, I know. I need to highlight his fastballs sitting 95 mph again (no second-start drop!) and we should expect the slider to perform better moving forward, shifting his approach away from two-thirds fastballs. Get excited for the Pirates and SlySox next.
Lake Bachar (MIA) @ WSN (L) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 39 pitches.
It was a bullpen game for the Marlins and I wonder what the rotation looks like down the stretch. ECab, Junk, and Gusto are all dealing with injuries, making Sandy, Eury, and the soon-to-return Weathers the only real locks. Robby Snelling? You gotta think his callup is imminent, no? He’s very much worth the spec add now.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs TEX (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 97 pitches.
The four-seamer is still dope and makes us feel dope, while the curveball became the secondary of choice and hey! 7/21 whiffs! 62% strikes! Zero hits! I wonder if that’s something we’ll see again. Keep starting him, of course.
Luis García Jr. (HOU) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 79 pitches.
Whoa whoa whoa. Garcia returned from TJS and in his first start back, not only did we get a productive PQS, but six full innings?! Wow. I dig that the cutter was the #2 pitch (23% usage could be higher, though) and his four-seamer’s precision upstairs was cool, but, uh, 91.4 mph ain’t so hot. Neither was the feel for his curve and sweeper. This feels a bit risky to chase, but fine, @TEX is a great matchup (that’s a fantastic place to pitch) and I totally get wanting to give that a shot.
Brayan Bello (BOS) vs CLE (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.
Blegh. This is the first stumble in a while for Bello, likely due to the exclusive LHB lineup that took advantage of his four-seamer and sinker. So it goes, he’s still a top-end Toby who has a solid September schedule that’s worth enduring Sacré Verde up next.
Spencer Strider (ATL) @ CHC (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 88 pitches.
The vert is back to the sub 16″ levels and if you haven’t moved on from Strider, I’m still suggesting you do. He’s not that guy anymore, y’all + the schedule is rough.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs PHI (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.
Honestly, not terrible, but a bit disappointing, especially with a trio of hits off the curveball. Just throw the slider instead. I’m still letting him fly and believe it’s worthwhile. Those in QS starts or points leagues may want to reconsider Jay Mis given the value in six inning ceilings.
Colin Rea (CHC) vs ATL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 73 pitches.
Welp, another mediocre outing from Rea, but the schedule ahead is good enough to try in a 12-teamer with WSN, TBR, @CIN ahead. We also saw Aaron Civale make his debut for the other Chicago team with three shutout frames, and you have to wonder if he’ll get a start or two here or there. Not worth it if he does save for those desperate for a Win.
Parker Messick (CLE) @ BOS (ND) – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 82 pitches.
Ah. The command from the first two games simply wasn’t replicated here and he got burned. At least it’s @TBR next and that could be better. Just remember that he is command-focused like all the southpaws out there. It’s too early to expect it to always be there.
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs CHW (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 69 pitches.
He’s up a tick from his last start, which was 89.8 mph. Wait, that’s still not good. No. No it’s not. The command of his four-seamer and changeup to RHB was solid, FWIW. Soooo add? Wait wait wait, no. Don’t do that.
Patrick Corbin (TEX) @ ARI (ND) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 92 pitches.
He almost got the PQS with three solo shots before the sixth, but ran into trouble and ended the day with five runs to his name. We knew his last start was a peak, you could have easily avoided the tumble down by just taking the tram on the wire, you know.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ HOU (L) – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 97 pitches.
He’s a HIPSTER who had a steady mix of stellar fastballs/sliders mixed with poor ones. That’s the standard affair for Kikuchi and I recommend moving on from that.
Luis Castillo (SEA) @ TBR (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 78 pitches.
This isn’t getting any better, y’all. Even with the pitch separation he had here (much better than usual!) he still had his struggles. Consider him a Toby given a decent schedule, though I’m anxious each time he starts.
Taijuan Walker (PHI) @ MIL (ND) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 85 pitches.
Would you look at that, the expected result of a Walker start. And the world was suddenly back to normal.
Sean Manaea (NYM) @ DET (ND) – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 83 pitches.
This. Isn’t. Working. At least he’s at 92.3 mph? Nah, I can’t recommend putting yourselves at risk anymore. He’s made it clear that he can’t go six frames and batters are able to guess effectively to tee off.
Chase Dollander (COL) vs SFG (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 84 pitches.
Dollander ain’t it until he leaves Colorado. So an away start? No, like the team. Ohhhh, so never?
Charlie Morton (DET) vs NYM (ND) – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.
This was the last start before we picked up Morton and with the curveball still cooking at 40% CSW, you should feel better about trusting him against the White So–wait. The Tigers are going six-man this week? That means…He’ll get the Yankees next. NOOOOO. Fine. Wait another week, then pick him up for the Marlins.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs ATH (L) – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.
Oh wow, this hurts. Gray’s Cherry Bomb nature has come alive in the second half and this looked great on paper in St. Louis. A trio of HRs were the real culprit and there’s nothing we can do but shrug it off and let him fly against the Giants next. If that’s rough, sure, drop him for the Brewers twice after that.
Game of the Day
Nolan McLean vs. Sawyer Gipson-Long – The Tigers are letting him start again + McLean has been so much fun.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
