Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Wednesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Lance Lynn (STL) vs CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches.
It’s the playoffs and you’re trying to dodge the rain and steal the sunshine. Suddenly, Lance Lynn makes his appearance from the injured list and denies the law of Still ILL to return 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 90 pitches while hosting the Reds and it’s got you thinking. Six of his last seven starts have combined for 5 ER total…maybe there’s something to this? That seventh start? Ten earned runs. Oh. Don’t forget about that floor as you make your decision.
Looking at this stretch, Lynn has leaned into the four-seamer more while pulling back on the cutter and it makes sense – Lynn has made his career on that four-seamer and when it can produce a 34% CSW with a 70%+ strike rate, you really should be throwing the dang thing a ton. With the Marlins on the docket, you see a potential Win, some strikeouts, and possibly a decent set of ratios to make it a productive start across the board. I won’t give him the blanket phrase of “You roll with two Ls, you’ll get a third” given how wrong that has been across his last seven, though don’t forget. Ten earned runs. If you’re trying to keep a lead, Lynn is a guy you can’t risk starting. If you’re behind, he may be an available arm who you can take a shot on.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs MIA (W) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 93 pitches.
This was everything we could have hoped for from Falter. His heater returned outs upstairs while the slider was destructive underneath, returning a whopping 10/32 whiffs. His curve helped with 53% strikes at 41% CSW, and Blame it on the Marlins. I still kinda hope he learns a changeup at some point given his extension and how LHP generally need changeups more than sliders to deal with RHB, and with the Cardinals up next, I’d label Falter as a desperate streaming option, not one to target in 12-teamers.
Bowden Francis (TOR) vs NYM (ND) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 111 pitches.
His heater was down two ticks. His splitter that people claim is the “reason” for his success? 6/19 strikes with just two whiffs. Sliders bounced incessantly for just 42% strikes (Yuuuuck). And yet, Francis found himself pitching in a 1-0 ballgame in the ninth inning without allowing a hit. It wasn’t until a meatball 0-2 heater was demolished over the wall by Francisco Lindor that the carriage turned orange with a snide grin. And let’s be real – did anyone watching this, with just one walk and one strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!) actually believe Francis was pitching absurdly well to earn a no-hitter? I dunno. His command is certainly better than what I we saw in the first half and yes, we’re just going to keep starting him, but this is not a destroyer of worlds pitcher.
Dean Kremer (BAL) @ BOS (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 103 pitches.
Ha! The mad man did it. We never know what Kremer is going to have across his five pitches and this was a night of four-seamers moving around the zone brilliantly for 11/49 whiffs, boasting elite 18″+ of iVB, an inch up from what we normally see, but more importantly, utilized better than we normally see. He actually kept the pitch upstairs, allowing for curveballs and cutters down effectively, and if Kremer can do that all time, I’d actually believe in the guy. Narrator: He doesn’t. But hey, it’s the Giants next and why not give that a shot with his recent hot stretch?
Sean Manaea (NYM) @ TOR (ND) – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 109 pitches.
Don’t think. Just do. Manaea has found his arm slot that allows him to spot sinkers upstairs well and it’s obviously deceptive. Just start the man.
Nick Pivetta (BOS) vs BAL (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 94 pitches.
This is awesome and I want to thank the Orioles for sending so many LHB up to the plate against Pivetta. Wait, what. Let me explain. I looked more into Pivetta yesterday and I’m a little sad to see he’s essentially two-pitch for LHB/RHB. That is, LHB see four-seamers + curves, while RHB see four-seamers + sweepers. If you recall a conversation Eno and I had about over-the-top SP back in March (we actually mentioned Pivetta!), Eno mentioned that it’s easier for batters to discern high-arm angle four-seamers vs. sweepers as throwing a sweeper forces a lower arm angle – you have to get around the ball horizontally, essentially 90 degrees difference of an angle vs. the four-seamer that you get fully on top of. For a guy like Pivetta who has such good spin efficiency (read: super straight over the top heater), it’s easier to pick up the sweeper. SO, it means Pivetta’s four-seamer is far worse against RHB than LHB. Tada! There’s your answer for this one, and also why I want the cutter to come back to deal with RHB. What does all this mean for fantasy. That I’m starting him against the Rays next (duh) but likely avoiding next year. Sorry for the ramble.
Jake Irvin (WSN) vs ATL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
Oh, when I finally slot you into “Do Not Start”, you actually produce. Take your Gold Star you ridiculous man. Suitman whispers into my ear. Seriously?! He threw just 10 curveballs?! Who is this man? It was extreme high heaters + sinkers in the zone and…nah. I choose not to let this enter my life.
Brandon Williamson (CIN) @ STL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 82 pitches.
Aha! They let him go 80+ pitches! And his changeup earned five whiffs with 41% CSW! There’s some hope here for Williamson finally, but now he gets Atlanta in Cin City. Noooope.
Michael King (SDP) @ SEA (L) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 90 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Not as unreal of a time in Seattle as we’ve seen and the lack of QS or Win at a 1.20 WHIP isn’t great, but sure. It helps. This is what makes King an ace – still a decent outing despite not having his best command.
Luis Gil (NYY) vs KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
He went Dancing With The Disco while sitting back up at 96+ mph. The changeup is still lagging behind at 9/20 strikes sadly, but now he heads to Seattle and that should be delicious.
Blake Snell (SFG) vs MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 95 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Phew. I’m glad we can just erase that last outing completely. Thanks for the King Cole, but can you try to be a little more efficient in the future? I want just a bit better than 57% curveball strikes, k thx.
Matthew Boyd (CLE) @ CHW (ND) – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 95 pitches.
The extended third frame resulted in more runs hidden from his ERA, but it did rack up the pitch count and inflate the WHIP on a night where Boyd was primed for pure dominance. I think we’ll take the nine strikeouts despite the rest of the madness here. Looking forward, I’m continuing to hold with the Twins next as his changeup is on point and he even flexed a 54% curveball here, while maintaing the BSB approach. We’re all good.
Joey Estes (OAK) @ HOU (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 84 pitches.
Ha! Look at that, nice going Estes. Or should I say Koufax. We appreciate it. Wink. Wait, how did you just do that?
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs SDP (W) – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 89 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. I don’t think we need more, do we? I’m starting him against the Yankees and I don’t care what you say. He’s Wheeler-lite.
Cole Ragans (KCR) @ NYY (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. All three hits came on breakers (two sliders to lefties, one curve to Soto for a two-run shot in the sixth), while the four-seamer cooked. Not his best changeup here, surprisingly, but a general good feel for his other three secondaries (save for those three breakers) that allowed him to get through the tough Yankee lineup. Now go enjoy the Tigers and Nationals.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs TBR (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 103 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. The dude just doesn’t stop. Except for like four starts of the year. So an 88% chance of success each night, assuming 32 starts. Got it.
Shane Baz (TBR) @ PHI (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 78 pitches.
After allowing an early two-run shot, Baz settled down and fired consistent curveball strikes with a well spotted upstairs heater (most of the time. Let’s ignore the chaos bolts, alright?). The slider was a bit finicky, though, but all he needs is one breaker on a given night. What about when he has two? Then you’ve got yourself a stud outing. I’m all for the Sawx and Jays in the Trop up next.
Zebby Matthews (MIN) vs LAA (ND) – 3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 61 pitches.
FINE. He allowed two home runs and could have easily gone five, but got the hook in the fourth at 61 pitches after a one out walk. That’s it. A WALK. AT 61 PITCHES. I failed y’all with my love for Zebby. Sigh. Obviously drop the man.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs TEX (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 68 pitches.
Kelly was doing normal Kelly things but left early with hamstring cramps. I think you can drop him for his Coors start as the Brewers after are not worth the stash. I’m fine with that start, just not worthy of wasting the roster spot until then.
Jonathan Bermúdez (MIA) @ PIT (L) – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 2 Whiffs, 13% CSW, 46 pitches.
It’s a poor four-seamer at 89/90 mph with a sweeper that can look decent at times. That’s it. We did see some Xzavion Curry later in this one, too, who was stellar across 4.2 IP of shutout ball as he hurled curves and sliders in the zone over 50% of the time. So do we like him? Absolutely not.
Max Fried (ATL) @ WSN (L) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 11 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 94 pitches.
Bleeeeegh. The fastball got hit with some poorly spotted pitches and it reminds me how he really misses his changeup. Not that he isn’t productive at all without it (keep starting, duh), but 5/12 strikes is a problem that opens the door for starts like these. Let’s hope it returns next year as I have no hope for a renaissance of the pitch with such little time left.
Jack Kochanowicz (LAA) @ MIN (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 69 pitches.
The Jack of One Trade realized his sole product was last week’s sushi. Whoops, gotta fix that one up. On the real, he was throwing a tick harder but didn’t spot the sinker. Location > velocity for Kochanowicz = This was a bad time.
Casey Mize (DET) vs COL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 66 pitches.
I appreciate Rockie Road granting Mize strikeouts once again (the splitter went 8/19 whiffs!) but without more from his heater and slider, I’m still reluctant to jump in. Also, that splitter got a bit too much of the plate for my liking and I’d avoid against the Royals and Orioles up next.
Hunter Brown (HOU) vs OAK (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 97 pitches.
For a guy who has found a way through thick and thin for months, I’m a bit shocked the clunker comes at the hands of the Athletics, but whatever. A Gallows Pole with seven strikeouts shows how this shouldn’t be trusted, even if the curve and change both failed him for sub 50% strikes. Uhhhh, that was the obivous problem, Nick. Okay fair. His cutter wasn’t all too reliable, either, making it four-seamer/sinker without the best command I’ve seen from him. Great, right when you’re about to get your tough matchup in San Diego…I think we still have to roll with it given his four-seamer dominance. 96/97 mph with 17-18″ of iVB and solid extension? Yeah, that should play.
Davis Martin (CHW) vs CLE (L) – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 72 pitches.
Womp womp. The changeup failed to return a single whiff despite getting featured more than any pitch (barely, at 26% usage), but at least the slider went 6/15 whiffs and 47% CSW, outlining a world where he has both cooking and could provide value. If only he faced a weaker te–SQUAWK! Ah! You’re right! It’s the Angels next! TWICE! Huh. Not the worst desperate stream I’ve ever seen. I’m not targetting it, but…maybe.
Bobby Miller (LAD) vs CHC (ND) – 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 90 pitches.
He threw one slider and couldn’t spot heaters as he wanted to, while the curveball wasn’t reliable. I can’t, y’all. I just can’t. The knee is likely bothering him and I’m down for this massively discounted draft position next year, but for now? Nooooope.
Tanner Gordon (COL) @ DET (L) – 3.1 IP, 7 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 67 pitches.
Even outside of Coors. COL story, bro.
Jordan Wicks (CHC) @ LAD (ND) – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 78 pitches.
Y’all don’t need me. But I started him. Okay, you need me.
Cody Bradford (TEX) @ ARI (L) – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 59 pitches.
I shot down all questions about Bradford in this start. Yes, you start him. He’s been that good. Man, this Arizona offense is more legit than I’d given them credit…and Bradford’s command was terrible. He’s traditionally painting the top of the zone red ala his right-handed counterpart Bailey Ober, and he did nothing of the sort, also failing to spot changeups down-and-armside. If he was rage dropped in your league, I’m down to pick him up for his final two starts of Jays + Oakland, and maybe we’ll see him steal that final Sunday outing against the Angels, too. This isn’t him.
Colin Rea (MIL) @ SFG (L) – 4.0 IP, 10 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 74 pitches.
If you needed any more of a sign to not chase Rea, here you go.
Game of the Day
Kumar Rocker vs. Bryce Miller – It’s Bryce at home AND Rocker’s MLB debut. I. Can’t. Wait.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)