Here are today’s daily SP Streamer rankings.
Every day of the 2023 baseball season, I’ll be looking at today and tomorrow’s slate of scheduled starting pitchers and ranking their matchups for your fantasy baseball streams.
There’s a lot that goes into this and you can hang out with me on Playback.tv/pitcherlist to talk about the specific ranks as I make them every weekday morning from 10am – 12pm ET. If you have questions about these ranks, please ask during the morning Playback AMA. Those are my office hours as I generally don’t answer comments on the site.
There are four tiers to these rankings with 12-teamers in mind:
Auto-Start – Just do it. Don’t overthink this, start the man. This includes “if I have them rostered, I’m starting them” pitchers.
Probably Start – I’m likely starting these arms, though I recognize there is more risk than we’d like there to be. Either it’s a tough matchup for a good-not-elite pitcher or a weak lineup for a volatile arm. These pitchers have a 50% or greater chance of performing well in my view.
Questionable Start – Think of this tier as “I don’t want to start these pitchers in a vacuum, but you could do worse.” Streamers found in this tier are not pitchers I’m targeting and are only if you are in dire need of one. To play it safe with streaming, just start the Probably Start streamers.
Do Not Start – The reward is not worth the risk. Don’t do it. Seriously, these pitchers have a very slim chance of success or sometimes none at all.
Obviously, there will be circumstances where pitchers should move between teams for your situation specifically and these new tiers should act as a little more help than the straight table from last year.
Please keep in mind that streaming is far from a perfect play. In fact, if they work out over half the time, I’d consider it a success. These matchup rankings & streamer picks are going to be wildly different than the actual results throughout the year, so please, have sympathy before the scathing comments and tweets. I’m only trying to help!
Make sure to read the notes if you’re wondering why I’m favoring certain pitchers over others – I won’t get to everyone and hopefully I answer what questions you will have.
There is a second table for tomorrow’s starting pitcher matchups as well, helping everyone get a jump on their nightly pickups. Please note that these matchups are subject to change, though, and there will be times when I have the incorrect pitcher going. I thank you for your future understanding.
Finally, there are my streaming picks of the day, and please keep in mind that I am forced to pick a streamer every day. Those highlighted in Green are that day’s streaming pick in the second tier and I’d roll with them everywhere. Those in Yellow are in the third tier and should be okay if you’re searching for something on a given day, but I don’t recommend streaming unless you’re in need. Finally, those are Red are those I really don’t want to start (they are labeled as “Do Not Start”, after all) but have no other choice. Don’t stream these guys until you are truly desperate. A streaming pick is defined as “rostered in 20% or fewer leagues,” which really emphasizes the point that I’d be happy if over 50% of these worked. I could do the whole sub 30/40% rostered, but there’s no fun in that. You can use the rankings to realize who would be those picks, instead.
(Opener) – Outlines that a pitcher is being opened for that day & the pitcher listed will follow the opener.
As I do my rankings, I thought it would be helpful to showcase a table of how we’re ranking offenses (in Alphabetical order):
I’m sure it’ll change through the year + there are differences to be made about teams vs. LHP or RHP, but it works as a general table that y’all should keep in mind.
Alright, let’s get to it.
This year, with our new daily fantasy baseball projections powered by PLV, I’ll be competing against PL Bot to pick the best streaming option each day.
To get access to PL Bot’s picks each day, sign up for PL Pro here.
The streaming record is determined by “Was this a productive game for 12-teamers if I started them?” Roughly a PQS with a Win and a strikeout per inning with a sub 1.20 WHIP, with a minimum of 5 IP. Close calls are decided by Playback chat.
Nick’s 2023 Streamer Record: 101-77
My pick yesterday: Connor Phillips @ STL (whoops)
PL Bot’s 2023 Streamer Record: 89-89
PL Bot’s Pick yesterday: Drew Rom vs. CIN
Want PL Bot’s pick today? Sign Up for PL Pro here.
With the new formatting for the notes, I’ve made the streaming pick of the day Underlined and Italicized.
10/1 Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Note: The Starting Pitchers who are underlined and not italicized are those who could have a high chance of being skipped on the final day of the year due to innings limits, playoff implications, or other reasons.
In addition, many starters will go fewer pitches than their usual workload to prevent a last minute injury and give some young guys one last chance. It’s a weird day.
Blake Snell @ CHW – Aces gonna ace. Go get that Cy Young and I expect the Padres to allow Snell this start in order to put a stamp on his 2023 season, especially now that he’s a Free Agent. Kevin Gausman vs. TBR – Aces gonna ace. If the Jays have their wild card spot locked, expect Gausman to get skipped in favor of a callup or something else. He’s their Game 1 starter. If it’s not Gausman, it’ll be a bullpen game or something you don’t want.
Kyle Bradish vs. BOS – I imagine the Orioles will have Bradish as their Game #2 starter, and would elect to sit Bradish if there aren’t any playoff implications here (home field advantage, for example).
Hunter Greene @ STL – I don’t expect the Reds to sit Greene as he missed plenty of time this year on the IL. They’d want him to get the innings.
Michael King @ KCR – Some have suggested the Yankees will give Cole one more start, I don’t see why they’d waste bullets on their 2024 ace. As for King, he just fanned 13 Jays, there’s no way you’re benching him here.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. CLE – Erod has been too good not to start here.
George Kirby vs. TEX – This could be an electric Game 162 and I’d hope Kirby steps up to the occasion. He’s their SP #2, though, so if they have it locked up, expect him to get some rest. If they are already out of it, also expect rest. No reason to push Kirby more.
Lucas Giolito @ DET – The skills just haven’t matched the results as of late and I love Giolito gets one more chance to prove his worth before his off-season paycheck. He’ll go all out here.
Bailey Ober @ COL – I really hope we get this start from Ober. Coors isn’t fun, but his changeup has been far better since returning from the minors. Four-seamer + changeup should work well in Colorado.
Bryce Elder vs. WSN – Given the minefield of the Atlanta rotation, you may see Elder get some rest here.
JP Sears @ LAA – I really don’t see why you wouldn’t be starting Sears against the poor Angels offense. He can go a strikeout per inning easily here.
Bobby Miller @ SFG – The Dodgers have him inside MLB’s API, even if I originally expected Ryan Pepiot. With the Dodgers getting a bye, it allows for Miller to make this start, though why not rest him? I’d expect about four innings and not a true start here, but there’s absolutely a chance I’m completely wrong. Always.
Braxton Garrett @ PIT – His last start against the Mets didn’t go well, but the Pirates aren’t a major threat. Justin Steele @ MIL – I worry that Steele is gassed and if the Cubs can give him any rest – either out of the playoffs or locked in – they will. Taj Bradley @ TOR – Who knows what we get here. Maybe the Rays take a break with a wild card spot locked up?
José Butto vs. PHI – Keep an eye on the Philadelphia lineup before this game – if they rest their starters, Butto could be a sneaky final-day stream.
Cristian Javier @ ARI – He was excellent, then he was…still kinda good? His changeup was terrible, but the fastball and slider didn’t fall off as much as the line would suggest. There’s a decent chance, y’all.
Tanner Houck @ BAL – The slider is strong, the rest isn’t. Speaking of rest, Baltimore may give their starters a day off to prep for the playoffs.
Adrian Houser vs. CHC – Houser will get a solid leash here to help rest the pen in preparation for the playoffs ahead with Woody/Burnes/Peralta clearly the main arms of the rotation.
Pedro Avila @ CHW – I’m sad San Diego isn’t letting Snell go one more game to cap off his phenomenal Cy Young season, though this makes for an interesting streaming option as Avila should be able to go at least five frames against one of the worst offenses in the majors. Don’t overlook this one when searching for any sort of production on the final day.
Kyle Harrison vs. LAD – Harrison was scratched earlier in the week with an illness and now he has one clear start to make his mark before the end of the year, while the Dodgers are sure to be resting their starters this weekend. It’s a gamble and there’s a better chance than the matchup would normally suggest. Please find a way to throw strikes.
Do Not Starts
Zack Greinke vs. NYY – Now this is interesting. I could see this being the final game of Greinke’s Hall of Fame career, which means we’ll see him go all out in this start. Makes you wonder.
Miles Mikolas vs. CIN – He’s on track to make his 35th start of the year, marking just the third pitcher since the start of 2011 to do so. Unreal. Welp, still not starting him, but he does have the chance to go upwards of seven frames as he did earlier in the week. I just don’t trust the ratios to be good enough here with little strikeout upside.
Carson Fulmer vs. OAK – I see Reid Detmers mentioned as well, but the official MLB API says its Fulmer, who was able to go roughly four innings last time out. It’s Oakland, weirder things have happened.
Dylan Dodd vs. WSN – Atlanta is cruising into the playoffs and giving one more shot to Dodd to impress them before his spring 2024 battle. We haven’t seen upside lately, but it’s the Nationals, it’s the Atlanta offense and defense, and he can go 5+.
Chase Anderson vs. MIN – Watch Anderson win people leagues on Sunday. WOULDN’T THAT BE SOMETHING.
Andre Jackson vs. MIA – We’ve seen him go six before, but there isn’t a whole lot to latch onto inside the repertoire.
Ryne Nelson vs. HOU – It’s Houston (though they may be resting their starters) and Nelson’s secondaries have not come through. Cody Bradford @ SEA – I’m not a fan of his four-seamer + changeup combo, but weirder things have happened. Osvaldo Bido vs. MIA – Naaaaaah. He’s not going to go a full five here, right?
José Ureña vs. SDP – Remember kids, If you trust José, Ureña boatload of trouble. I know, he just had eight strikeouts and it was weird. Sure, there’s like a 5% chance it works, BUT COME ON.
Jackson Rutledge @ ATL – Naaaaaah. But hey, at least he has the opportunity to go five frames!
Bryan Hoeing @ PIT – Hoeing just got trounced and it’s hard to put yourself in the way of that again with his limited ceiling. I wonder how much they’ll actually let him go here and if he’s opened for or not.
Drew Smyly @ MIL – The Cubs are out of the playoff hunt (I’m so sorry Cubs fans), allowing them to make the wise decision of resting Justin Steele. There’s rare Smyly magic here and there if you need a miracle.
Jacob Lopez (Opener) @ TOR – He looks to be the bulk guy for the Rays and with no playoff implications here, you may see a Win from him. I think we’ll see at least three from Jacob, upwards of five in relief. He’s a Ryan Yarbrough type on 89/90 mph fastballs and sliders for the left side with fantastic extension.
Dane Dunning @ SEA – The Rangers are one of two teams still fighting for something, and that’s a bye in the first round as they try to hold off the Astros for the AL West. It means Dunning is getting the pearl on three-days rest…which doesn’t suggest a long time on the bump.
Michael Lorenzen (Opener) @ NYM – The Phils are leading with Matt Strahm, which tells me this likely isn’t a whole lot of frames for Lorenznen. It’s a Win chance, hoping he slots into the game at the right time and throws productive baseball.
Kyle Nelson vs. HOU – This looks like a bullpen game for the Sneks as they prepare for the first round of the playoffs.
TBD Blue Jays SP vs. TBR – Now that the Jays have a locked in Wild Card spot, they are saving Kevin Gausman for Game 1 of the playoffs, obviously. No idea what we see here, my guess is a bullpen game.
Good luck today! Thank you so much everyone for your support this season. Let’s do it all again next year :)
Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)