Once we got word of a season plan, I updated The List back on June 23rd knowing there would be lot of changes before the start of the season. I had planned to put this out on Monday, but with draft weekend ahead of us, I wanted to get a proper update out for everyone’s drafts. As always, read the notes before looking at the ranks, they explain a lot.
Ranking Notes
- This is the final update of The List until Monday July 27th when baseball has actually returned. BASEBALL IS BACK IN ONE WEEK. WHAT.
- For those initiated, a Toby is a middling pitcher who is borderline a waiver wire arm. A Cherry Bomb is a volatile arm who is either super sweet or blows up in your face.
- Take note that the re-introduction of Carlos Carrasco (I’m so happy you’re okay!) at #22 gives many an innate “-1” to their rank…until Jesus Luzardo, David Price, Michael Kopech, Jose Urquidy, and Eduardo Rodriguez’s removals that push the back-half up and give them an innate “+5”. This is your obligatory “READ THE NOTES” before reacting to the small “+2” or “-1” rank changes.
- I also removed many players who simply didn’t have the early schedule you’d want for someone on the fringe anyway. You’re going to see plenty of green and double-digit increases in the back-half of The List because of this, but don’t get too alarmed. Most are just “hey, not a terrible first start and they could do fine” kind of players.
- During PitchCon, I sat down with injury specialist Stephen Lyman, where we discussed many players with injury questions and how to properly put weights on them. There are a number of players who have injury concerns that I’m not as worried about relative to others. (Watch our hour-long talk here):
- I’m placing Mike Clevinger ahead of Shane Bieber, as we shouldn’t be worried about his knee at all given the large time off to properly heal. I like Clev dog. You should too.
- Charlie Morton often gets hurt by the longevity of the season and a season a third in length will do wonders for his overall performance. He was a true ace last year and gets a well-deserved bump.
- I was giving Blake Snell a heavy drop before, given the injury cloud already circling, but given it was loose bodies that were removed and should be fully healed, I’m in on Snell rebounding from an odd year where he lost the feel for his curveball and slider in the zone. That should come back.
- Griffin Canning’s PRP injections should come with concern, though he may get the Mariners first and I’m in for that.
- One of the major changes from 162 games to 60 games is my emphasis on volume from Day 1. I’m personally favoring pitchers who I believe have the ceiling to go at least six frames from their very first start of the season, as each individual start matters more than ever. I’m calling those SP “Ego Starters” as they won’t let managers baby them early or pull them when they are performing well. It’s not always directed to their personality, but more that I trust they will go deep early in the year. These players include Lance Lynn, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Carrasco, Zack Greinke, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Frankie Montas, Mike Minor, and Trevor Bauer.
- The other side of the coin are pitchers who we know are limited right away. Walker Buehler is scheduled for two – just two! – innings Friday night, forcing me to push him down in favor of pitchers who will get more volume this season. It feels very strange to do so, but a week or two into the season, you’ll be happy having 18 frames of Luis Castillo more than Buehler’s nine.
- Yes, despite being a Gallen Gal, I’ve lowered Zac Gallen. I can’t say with conviction that he’ll be given the same leash as those mentioned above and it saddens me that I need to push him down because of it. Not to mention, there is the innate risk of putting too much stock into his expected development. Still love him, just have to favor the floors of others more.
- You may find it weird to see Tyler Glasnow this far down. Given the short sample size of 2019, his COVID illness that delayed his start of camp, and lack of third pitch, I think you’re better off chasing other arms instead that have the full package ready for opening day.
- I have no idea what to do with Zack Wheeler. I love the guy but I think he has all the reason to properly opt-out of the season as he has a child on the way. It’s a huge risk to grab him at this point and I’ve pushed him much farther than I’d like because of it.
- I really think many are overlooking Shohei Ohtani. I know I’ve talked about volume, but there’s a difference between production per start vs. production over the full year. Shohei has the ability of a Top 15 starter and you want his ability on your team.
- I dropped Julio Urias down as I wonder if the Dodgers are going to use their pitching depth to prevent him from going a full six frames each game.
- I love Mike Foltynewicz but sadly the Braves have admitted that they are taking things slow with their starters this year. I had to bring down both him and Mike Soroka because of this.
- With David Price opting out, some are chasing Ross Stripling and Dustin May. I’m not, but I’ll add them as things could change quickly. I expect the Dodgers to still carry Dodgeritis, preventing Stripling or May to get significant innings for a while. It hurts, I know.
- I’m wondering how to feel about Jordan Montgomery. On one hand, if he has increased velocity, he’ll be on a winning club and given opportunities. On the other, he gets the Phillies and Red Sox out of the gate. He takes a hit because of the innate risk there. Blegh.
- I’m so sorry John Means, but you have a tough schedule to start the year. It’s not fair.
- The same goes for Dallas Keuchel, though I’m certainly less emotional there. An early matchup with the Twins means you’re unlikely to be happy early, but Keuchel should be a solid Toby through the year on a winning ballclub.
- With Yonny Chirinos still missing from Summer Camp, Brendan McKay could slide into the Rays’ rotation. I wouldn’t expect him to get the volume early, but you should keep an eye on him.
- I considered removing Michael Fulmer and Chad Kuhl as they’ll be “piggy-back” starters initially, but I think their upside makes them worthwhile at the end considering the other options are pitchers you don’t want to stream to start the year. If they do well in their first start, their limitations could be removed.
- I have many concerns that neither Corbin Burnes nor Freddy Peralta will get the innings we want them to get in Milwaukee, but their upside is certainly worthy of a Top 100 spot. Monitor this situation carefully.
- With Michael Kopech opting out, Carlos Rodon has a chance to earn innings inside the White Sox rotation again. He deserves a look, but who knows what quality those hypothetical innings would be.
- Okay, okay, I added Nate Pearson, Spencer Howard, and MacKenzie Gore to The List. I understand that each of the teams could easily add them to their rosters after the first turn of the rotation and could make an impact right away. I prefer Pearson the most of the crew, but remember, you’re likely better off using that spot for a stream that the first week – you need every solid start you can get!
- Sadly I had to lower Dylan Bundy as he’s likely to face the Athletics and Astros out of the gate. I’m curious as to what we’ll see from him in 2020, but you want to watch from the sidelines.
- And let’s talk about the pitchers I’ve added that could have a favorable start in their first start of the year that should be considered at the end of your draft:
- Nathan Eovaldi and Martin Perez get the Orioles
- Dakota Hudson may get the Pirates. Monitor this one as Carlos Martinez could be in the rotation and push Hudson to #4…where he gets the Twins. Not good.
- Griffin Canning could get the Mariners if he’s the #4 or #5
- Alex Wood is likely slated against the Giants
- AJ Puk may be hosting the Rockies in O.Co
- Asher Wojciechowski would get the Marlins if he’s the #4 or #5
- Pablo Lopez would get the Orioles
- Joey Lucchesi is slotted to go against the Giants
- Jake Arrieta could face the Marlins
- I’m worried about Austin Voth and Anibal Sanchez facing off against the hot/cold Blue Jays in their first starts, but it’s the best out there as they squeak inside the Top 100.
Fringe Pitchers I Considered
| Pitcher | Reason |
|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | Out with illness. |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Out with illness. |
| Patrick Sandoval | Out with illness. |
| Brad Keller | Out with illness. |
| Jose Urquidy | Out with illness. |
| Yonny Chirinos | Hasn’t reported to camp. |
| Michael Kopech | Opted out. |
| David Price | Opted out. |
| Masahiro Tanaka | I’m not sure he’s ready for the start of the year after taking a liner to his head. |
| Kevin Gausman | Bad opening schedule and a streamer in the first place. |
| Justus Sheffield | Gets Astros / Angels first. Too risky. |
| Taijuan Walker | Gets Angels / A’s. No thanks. |
| Miles Mikolas | Coming back from injury and would get the Twins first. Let’s wait. |
| Johnny Cueto | Gets the Dodgers first and we don’t know where he’s at. |
| Dakota Hudson | Still unknown who he faces first. |
| Cole Hamels | He’s hurt. Again. |
| Matt Shoemaker | Too much volatility and I’m a little worried about the Nationals. |
| Reynaldo Lopez | A volatile arm that I’m waiting to see a distinct change from before rostering. |
| Steven Matz | Gets the Braves then Red Sox. No thanks. |
All right, now that the notes are at the top and you understand where I’m coming from, let’s get to The List:
| Rank | Pitcher | Badges | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerrit ColeT1 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 2 | Jacob deGrom | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 4 | Justin Verlander | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 5 | Mike ClevingerT2 | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 6 | Shane Bieber | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 7 | Charlie Morton | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 8 | Stephen Strasburg | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 9 | Jack FlahertyT3 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 10 | Blake Snell | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 11 | Patrick Corbin | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 12 | Clayton Kershaw | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 13 | Yu Darvish | Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 14 | Luis Castillo | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | +1 |
| 15 | Walker Buehler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -10 |
| 16 | Lucas GiolitoT4 | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 17 | Chris Paddack | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | - |
| 18 | Corey Kluber | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 19 | Aaron Nola | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | - |
| 20 | Sonny Gray | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 21 | Lance Lynn | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +5 |
| 22 | Carlos Carrasco | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +UR |
| 23 | James Paxton | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +1 |
| 24 | Frankie Montas | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +3 |
| 25 | Zack Greinke | Aces Gonna Ace Quality Starts | - |
| 26 | Trevor Bauer | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Cherry Bomb | +2 |
| 27 | Zac Gallen | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 28 | Madison Bumgarner | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 29 | Tyler Glasnow | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside | -6 |
| 30 | José Berríos | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | +2 |
| 31 | Kenta MaedaT5 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 32 | Shohei Ohtani | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 33 | Michael Soroka | Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -2 |
| 34 | Brandon Woodruff | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -4 |
| 35 | Matthew Boyd | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +2 |
| 36 | Luke Weaver | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +4 |
| 37 | Hyun Jin Ryu | Ace Potential Injury Risk Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +4 |
| 38 | Max Fried | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 39 | Joe Musgrove | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +4 |
| 40 | Lance McCullers Jr. | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +4 |
| 41 | Mike Minor | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +11 |
| 42 | Carlos MartínezT6 | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -4 |
| 43 | Zack Wheeler | Aces Gonna Ace Strikeout Upside Quality Starts | -23 |
| 44 | Julio Urías | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | -5 |
| 45 | Kyle Hendricks | Ace Potential Quality Starts Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 46 | Sean Manaea | Ace Potential Injury Risk Ratio Focused | +1 |
| 47 | Caleb Smith | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +1 |
| 48 | Robbie Ray | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +2 |
| 49 | Dinelson Lamet | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | - |
| 50 | Jake Odorizzi | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +5 |
| 51 | A.J. Puk | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +14 |
| 52 | Mitch Keller | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside | +1 |
| 53 | Andrew Heaney | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -8 |
| 54 | Germán Márquez | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +3 |
| 55 | Dylan CeaseT7 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +3 |
| 56 | Mike Foltynewicz | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Quality Starts Ratio Focused | -5 |
| 57 | Jordan Montgomery | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option | +2 |
| 58 | Alex Wood | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Streaming Option Stash Option | +2 |
| 59 | Sandy Alcantara | Quality Starts Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +2 |
| 60 | Garrett Richards | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +3 |
| 61 | Marcus Stroman | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +19 |
| 62 | Griffin Canning | Ace Potential Injury Risk Cherry Bomb | +8 |
| 63 | Rich Hill | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside | +8 |
| 64 | Josh James | Ace Potential Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +5 |
| 65 | Ryan Yarbrough | Toby Ratio Focused | +14 |
| 66 | Josh Lindblom | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | - |
| 67 | John Means | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | -5 |
| 68 | Pablo López | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
| 69 | Spencer Turnbull | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +4 |
| 70 | Zach PlesacT8 | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused | +12 |
| 71 | Aaron Civale | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +12 |
| 72 | Anthony DeSclafani | Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused | +9 |
| 73 | Nathan Eovaldi | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +13 |
| 74 | Kyle Gibson | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +17 |
| 75 | Adrian Houser | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | -8 |
| 76 | Joey Lucchesi | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -1 |
| 77 | Chris Bassitt | Strikeout Upside Toby Streaming Option | +21 |
| 78 | J.A. Happ | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +21 |
| 79 | Homer Bailey | Strikeout Upside Streaming Option | +15 |
| 80 | Wade Miley | Quality Starts Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +4 |
| 81 | Freddy PeraltaT9 | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
| 82 | Corbin Burnes | Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +UR |
| 83 | Jon Gray | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +5 |
| 84 | Nate PearsonT10 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +UR |
| 85 | Spencer Howard | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +UR |
| 86 | MacKenzie Gore | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Stash Option | +UR |
| 87 | Carlos RodónT11 | Ace Potential Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 88 | Ross Stripling | Strikeout Upside | +UR |
| 89 | Dustin May | Strikeout Upside Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 90 | Asher Wojciechowski | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +3 |
| 91 | Jordan Lyles | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb Streaming Option | +4 |
| 92 | Brendan McKay | Strikeout Upside Low Ips | +UR |
| 93 | Dylan Bundy | Strikeout Upside Cherry Bomb | -21 |
| 94 | Martín PérezT12 | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
| 95 | Dallas Keuchel | Toby Ratio Focused | -19 |
| 96 | Austin Voth | Strikeout Upside Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
| 97 | Aníbal Sánchez | Toby Ratio Focused | +UR |
| 98 | Michael Fulmer | Ace Potential Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | +UR |
| 99 | Chad Kuhl | Injury Risk Strikeout Upside Low Ips Cherry Bomb | -3 |
| 100 | Jake Arrieta | Toby Ratio Focused Streaming Option | +UR |
Labels Legend
Aces Gonna Ace
Ace Potential
Holly
Toby
Cherry Bomb
Spice Girl
Vargas Rule
Streaming Option
QS Bonus
Wins Bonus
Strikeouts Bonus
Ratios Bonus
Rotation Spot Bonus
Team Context Effect
Stash Option
Injury Risk
Playing Time Question
Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)
No strikeout upside for Castillo who has a high K%?
Saw on MLB Network a segment on Ray and how he altered his delivery by shortening his arm delivery ala Giolito for greater control and consistency. Fewer walks means more IP, K’s and QS potential. Worth monitoring.
Thanks for the catch! Just added it to Castillo.
Whoa, that would be wonderful for Ray! I’m curious to see his first start now and will adjust accordingly if A) it’s a legit change and B) there’s a difference in performance.
He looked good in intrasquad game. Al Leiter showed a side-by-side comparison of his delivery from last year to this year and same when Giolito and Bieber made the change. The shortened arm action on the take away makes the mechanics of the delivery more repeatable/consistent.
I just watched that video, okay okay this is selling me a bit on Ray!
You’re right, it definitively is a better arm circle for Ray and seeing him 96 on the gun is dramatic to say the least.
Normally I don’t make any changes based on this stuff until I see it for a full meaningful game, but I am *certainly* intrigued!
Maybe his results will be more like 2017…hoping
Nick, love the site. News just broke that Luzardo is back at camp. Where would he rank given he might now be a little behind others pitch count wise.
We’re still in the dark about his stamina and how the A’s will use him.
At this point, I’d rather chase others. I can imagine him around the stashes of Gore/Pearson/etc.
Nick, great list! I noticed 3 of the “+UR” pitchers listed (Pablo Lopez, Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes) didn’t have any colored blocks in the Badges column. Was that an oversight?
The order you chose for Pearson, Howard and Gore is interesting. I see in your notes that you like Pearson better. Was that because you think he is the best pitcher of the three, or were there other reasons as well? I ask because it seems San Diego wants to make a run this season (especially after seeing they just traded for Tim Hill) while Toronto… not so much. So, San Diego may have more of a sense of urgency in calling up Gore. Also, San Diego has a more pitcher-friendly park and more pitcher-friendly opponents’ parks, while both the NL West and the AL East will have the toughest schedules in the league (not sure which has the tougher schedule, but I’m guessing Toronto).
Thanks.
Ah! Thanks for the heads up on the UR guys, I went in and fixed them.
It’s a mixture that I’m confident the Jays will push Pearson given their solid offense and lack of quality pitching depth given Chase Anderson’s injury + I trust Pearson’s skillset of a blazing heater and plus plus slider more than the other two (despite what everyone says about Gore!).
You couldn’t have psychically forecast this list before I drafted Wheeler and Gallen as my SP2 and SP3 in a 50 round draft and hold two weeks ago? Otherwise, Verlander, K. Hendricks (Liam, too, for that matter), Ray, Weaver, Hill, Gibson, J. Gray, Canning, Turnbull, C. Anderson, B. Keller, Velasquez, Patino (Eno’s influence), Cobb, Wojciechowski, Pineda. I figured four starts of Pineda likely trumped whatever else I was getting in the 49th round. Seems like a much shorter list typed out than when I drafted. I mixed and matched influences but The List predominated.
Did you consider putting Reynaldo Lopez on the list?
I should have put him in the Fringe table. Given his massive volatility last year, I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting ReyLo early in the season.
Great job including all of the numerous factors into your rankings. One trend I have noticed is that many are discounting older players like Verlander, for example. I think a short season really will work well for Verlander because he will not need to hold anything back. Also, his experience and track record playing for Houston supports future success. He is going to have one of the best defensive infields behind him with a potent offense to give him run support. My bold prediction is that he moves into a battle for #1 with Scherzer after a month of play.
Pleasantly surprised Snell is ranked so favorably. Thought you’d dock him some serious points for the cloudy offseason routine. LOVE the Morton respect. I love Voth as a favorite to leapfrog a ton of spots in the event that he gets through TOR relatively unscathed.
Great list, thank you. Curious about the inclusion of Wojciechowski… What makes him a top 100 guy other than some Ks?
Thanks Randy!
Simply that I think he can take advantage of his first start against the Marlins. He’s had outbursts of greatness in the past and with a super good cutter and slider, there’s a chance he can excel against a weak Marlins lineup.
No Fiers?
Fiers is borderline for his first start against the Angels – I’d prefer to chase someone else instead, then stream him for his next start hosting the Rockies or heading to Seattle.
In 12-teamers, that’s all Fiers is to me – a streamer.
Thanks. Ive seen him on a number of Top 100 SP lists and off of a few. Appreciate the take on it.
With the news that Wheeler’s wife had their child on Monday and he’s now scheduled to start on Saturday (meaning it sounds like he won’t miss any time during the season), where would you rank Wheeler now? Would he go back into the low 20’s where you had him in earlier versions of The List?