Welcome to the PLV Power Report! Here, we examine hitter performance by utilizing Power+, a PLV+ metric that indexes a player’s power based on the characteristics of the pitch, i.e., count, location, velocity, induced vertical break, height-adjusted vertical approach angle, and other factors. Essentially, we’re searching for players with upside who are adding power based on the expectation of the individual pitches they see.
For example, say a hitter hits a well-located fastball on the outside corner that might typically coax a weak line drive, but instead, they belt a home run the opposite way; they’ll get a much better power grade for that outcome. Conversely, if that hitter sees a hanging changeup over the heart of the plate, or another pitch that would normally be crushed, and instead pops up to short, they’ll get a much lower score for the outcome. The power metric is unique because it provides a more intuitive way to assess player performance by accounting for the quality of each pitch they see. In other words, it’s a good way to check if a player is over- or underperforming by adding context. Note that Power+, like PLV+ metrics, is normalized to 100 and generally becomes more meaningful after around 75 BBE (batted ball events).
If you’re new to the PLV metrics, you can find Nick’s primer here.
Last week, we surveyed the top performers at each position with Power+. This week, we’ll survey standouts based on Pitch Runs+, a PLV metric that quantifies the quality of pitches a hitter has faced. A higher Pitch Runs+ indicates that a hitter has seen pitches that yield runs, i.e., more favorable to hitters, more frequently than the league average. This gives us another angle of context by isolating the quality of pitches a hitter has faced. For example, if a hitter hasn’t performed well, but has a low Pitch Runs+, you can at least say they’ve faced stiff competition. On the other hand, I’d feel a little more squeamish about hitters with a high Pitch Runs+ who haven’t produced. Spoiler alert: we’ve got a couple of those guys here. In short, you can perhaps view Pitch Runs+ as a small piece of the buy-low, sell-high puzzle that we are all trying to figure out. As far as sample size goes, we’ll be looking mostly at hitters who have faced a minimum of 800 pitches.
Note: Stats and PLV metrics are current through Sunday, June 15.
880 Pitches Faced
Angels fans haven’t had much worth cheering with their team mired in what would be their tenth consecutive losing season. However, Neto’s performance at the dish has been impressive. With ten dingers and 92 games left, the 24-year-old shortstop could approach his first 30-homer season. We’ve previously waxed poetic about his Power+ being impressive (129; 144 BBE). However, he earns another gold star, considering the quality of the pitching he’s faced; his 72 Pitch Runs+ meaning he’s tackled pitches that have been two standard deviations more difficult than the league average.
760 Pitches Faced
I’m breaking our sample size a little here, but sometimes we have to cut corners. I feel a little silly vouching for a future Hall of Famer; nevertheless, a quick PSA might be warranted considering he’s hitting .220 for the second consecutive year. No, he’s not toast, his 131 Power + a testament to the thunder lying in his bat. And, like his teammate Neto, Trout has faced high-quality pitching; his 59 Pitch Runs+ is the lowest among all hitters who have faced at least 400 pitches.
1,038 Pitches Faced
Torres has had an underrated season so far, his .355 wOBA ranking second only to Brendan Donovan among qualified second basemen. He’s shown above-average Power+ (109; 186 BBE) and performed well against tough pitches; his 84 Pitch Runs+ being about a standard deviation more difficult than league average.
1,150 Pitches Faced
Eugenio Suárez continues to be an underrated slugger, with his .356 wOBA ranking sixth among qualified third basemen. His Pitch Runs+ of 78 indicates he’s done plenty of damage while facing stiff competition. His profile, including a 120 Power+, is about as rock-solid as they come. The only question I have is whether he’ll remain in Arizona after the trade deadline.
958 Pitches Faced
Harris owns a .268 wOBA, sixth-lowest among qualifiers. Standard leaguers who drafted Harris have replaced him with someone on the waiver wire by now, but I feel for you if you’ve got him in a 15-team league. It’s like being stuck in a gridlock between a cement mixer and a dump truck. Harris has shown just about average Power+ (99; 211 BBE), but what makes his performance even more confounding is that he’s failed to produce while facing relatively easy pitches to hit, his Pitch Runs+ being 115, or just about a standard deviation easier than league average. This hardly qualifies as new to attentive Braves fans, who will probably all tell you that their center fielder’s at-bats have been unpleasant endeavors.
1,049 Pitches Faced
Braves fans might want to look away again. Albies has been a wreck at the dish this year, his .280 wOBA ranking 15th-worst among qualified hitters. Similar to his teammate Harris, Albies’ struggles are perhaps amplified considering he’s faced relatively easy pitches to hit; his 139 Pitch Runs+ ranks third-highest among all hitters who have faced at least 400 pitches.
1,232 Pitches Faced
Suzuki’s Power+ has jumped from 119 to 126 this season across 190 BBE, and he’s done it while behind the proverbial eight ball; his 64 Pitch Runs+ is tied for the second-lowest among all batters who have faced at least 400 pitches.
978 Pitches Faced
The Royals have had difficulty scoring, in part due to the struggles of their longtime catcher. The good news is that Sal’s Power+ remains exceptional at 113. He’s seen plenty of good pitches to hit (129 Pitch Runs+), but poor swing decisions (57 DV+) have been the culprit behind a career-low .278.
807 Pitches Faced
Cam Smith was a popular breakout candidate, but the results haven’t been in his favor thus far, hitting .253 with a .310 wOBA. However, the 22-year-old has earned a 108 Power + across 127 BBE, and he’s done it while facing really tough pitching; his 64 Pitch Runs+ is tied with Suzuki for the second lowest among all batters who have faced at least 400 pitches. This is all to say, Smith has faced a very steep learning curve as a rookie.
1,002 Pitches Faced
Pitch Runs+ might be particularly useful for elucidating rookie struggles. In which case, we have Kristian Campbell, who entered last night’s 2-0 win over the Mariners hitting .225 with six home runs and a .306 wOBA. Both his Contact Ability+ (94) and Power+ (89;148 BBE) are below average. However, his 84 Pitch Runs+ indicates he has not faced the easiest lot of pitches.
1,228 Pitches Faced
We highlighted Cal Raleigh as the top catcher last week. Shocking, right? Half of me thinks he might be a sell-high candidate based on his 126 Pitch Runs+. The second half of my brain wants to murder the other for even suggesting that because he’s been phenomenal (129 Power+; 176 BBE and 126 Hitter Performance+), and done exactly what we want him to do, that being relentlessly pound pitches over the plate. After all, he’s on a historic pace to potentially break the all-time single-season record by a catcher (48) and a Mariner (56). He could also bust Mickey Mantle’s single-season home run record by a switch-hitter of 54, one that’s been held since 1961.
961 Pitches Faced
OK, I think if we’re talking about a catcher to sell-high based just on the quality of the pitches he has faced, the better pick might be Goodman. He’s earned a 107 Power+ but has also been the beneficiary of favorable pitches (120 Pitch Runs+). Combine that with highly questionable swing decisions (79 DV), and I don’t think it would be too surprising to see his production taper off.
1,313 Pitches Faced
The Nationals are floundering amidst a nine-game losing streak. But that hasn’t stopped their 22-year-old left fielder. On Saturday, Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera seemed in the middle of a great start, having fanned five of the first seven men he faced. But then Wood sent his afternoon sideways with a three-run, 451-foot bomb to center. Last night, he hit his 18th by going oppo against lefty Carson Palmquist. Needless to say, Wood has displayed unreal power (132; 185 BBE) in his first full season. So what about his Pitch Runs+? Exactly average at 100.
