This time of year, perhaps more than ever, saves in fantasy baseball can have the utmost importance. Always in high demand, regardless of league size or scoring format, just a singular save this late in the season can make all the difference in deciding a nailbiter of a fantasy championship or playoff game, or the head-t0-head matchup that gets a fantasy manager to said playoffs.
Additional saves this late in the year can also crucially tip the scales in Roto formats.
Either way, whichever type of league or fantasy format you prefer, saves are probably top of mind when considering waiver wire options.
With that in mind, these three closers, who are undervalued in terms of rostered rate in part due to not being their team’s closer for the entirety of the season, represent three under-the-radar saves options who could help decide fantasy championships.
(All rostered rate data via FantasyPros as of the beginning of the day on Wednesday. Rostered rate numbers are listed next to each player’s name.)
Tyler Kinley – 7%
On one hand, Tyler Kinley’s walk and barrel rate numbers (11.4% and 9.3% respectively) aren’t ideal for a pitcher who plays regular home games at Coors Field. Neither is a 38.4% ground ball rate.
On the other hand, the 33-year-old has been decidedly above-average at missing bats this season, striking out 24.9% of batters but ranking in the 95th percentile league-wide with a 33.9% strikeout rate.
That strikeout rate is largely thanks to a slider and changeup (utilized mostly against left-handed hitters) that have both been excellent at missing bats this season, not to mention limiting damage in general.
Overall, Kinley has pitched to a 5.98 ERA and a 4.90 FIP in 64 appearances spanning 61.2 innings.
And while the run-prevention numbers are certainly unideal and perhaps the main reason why his rostered rate is so low, it represents a potentially key opportunity for fantasy managers.
If other managers in your league aren’t adding Kinley to their roster due to the ERA and the fact that he pitches at Coors Field, now’s the time to add him for the stretch run and the fantasy playoffs.
Because most of the damage done against Kinely actually happened early in the season, leading to a somewhat misleading ERA and FIP. Misleading, at least in terms of how he’s been pitching lately in a rather significant sample size.
The reliever has logged a 2.55 ERA and a 2.89 FIP in 24.2 innings since July 11, striking out 30 batters while scattering eight walks, seven earned runs, and a pair of home runs. Coors Field or no, it’s the under-the-radar stat line of a pitcher who could be a fantasy league winner in the season’s final weeks.
(Quick aside, during that recent stretch, Kinley has a 2.98 FIP in 10.2 innings at Coors Field.)
And while the Rockies recently activated Victor Vodnik, who was the closer for a time earlier this season, from the injured list, the team went to Kinley for a save in Vodnik’s first game back.
Seeing Kinley close games for Colorado has been a bit of a recurring theme lately.
He has a save in each of his last four outings and four of his last five. That stretch has Kinley sitting on six saves since the beginning of August, the same as Kenley Jansen and Alexis Díaz and more than Edwin Diaz.
Move that time frame forward to just looking at save tallies around the league since August 25 and only Kirby Yates with six has more.
Lucas Erceg – 27%
Earlier this year, Erceg looked like a reliever who might benefit fantasy-wise from the trade deadline in the sense that if the A’s were to move Mason Miller, Erceg would’ve seemed to have been the next best option for saves in Oakland.
Fast forward a few months, and Erceg has actually benefited fantasy-wise from the trade deadline, only this time with his new team in Kansas City.
Erceg has enjoyed an excellent start to life in a Kansas City Royals uniform. The former Oakland A’s hurler has pitched to a 3.63 ERA and a 1.27 FIP in his first 17.1 innings with the Royals, all of which have come since July 31.
That he’s added 21 strikeouts compared to just two walks and no home runs allowed during that span is certainly of note, though the most noteworthy aspect of Erceg’s stat line is the eight saves he’s accumulated during that span.
That number not only leads the Royals, but it’s also seven more than the next closest Kansas City reliever. In fact, only three other Royals relievers have converted a save during that stretch. And each of them, Hunter Harvey, John Schreiber, and Daniel Lynch IV, only have a singular save each.
If you’re looking for the Royals closer, or simply just an effective fantasy closer on a real-life playoff team, it’s Erceg.
One last fun fact about the 29-year-old reliever? He ranks in the 76th percentile or better in each and all of the following metrics: hard-hit rate, barrel rate, strikeout rate, whiff rate, chase rate, and xERA.
He’s a must-add in all fantasy formats, regardless of league size.
Griffin Jax – 31%
Sticking in the American League Central, we switch to Griffin Jax, who’s quietly been one of the league’s very best relief pitchers.
Among qualified relief pitchers:
Only Mason Miller and Cade Smith have a higher fWAR.
Just 15 relievers have a higher strikeout rate.
Only 24 have a lower walk rate.
Just Smith, Miller, and AJ Puk have a lower FIP.
Jax also ranks in the 96th percentile in each of the following categories: xERA, chase rate, strikeout rate, and xBA. So you get it. He’s pretty good.
Jax began the 2024 campaign closing games for the Twins with Jhoan Duran starting the season on the injured list due to a right oblique strain. The former logged four saves before Duran returned in late April and has just four saves since, with his last one coming on August 5.
But, it’s worth noting that Duran has allowed three earned runs in two of his last six outings. That number isn’t overly problematic considering the closer has a 1.89 compared to an 11.57 ERA during that span, and when taking into account that outside of those two outings, he was largely fine in the other four.
Still, the Twins’ overall struggles as a team are also a consideration here.
Minnesota is clinging to the last American League Wild Card spot, having lost 15 of 22 to put the team not only behind Kansas City in the standings but also well within the distance of the Detroit Tigers, who are three games out as of the start of play on Wednesday. The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are both at four games out as of Wednesday morning.
That’s all not to say that Duran isn’t going to close games on a regular basis, but if Minnesota starts to use Duran at times earlier in games (something he did a few times in August and on Saturday in the eighth inning of a crucial game against the Royals) it could open up a handful of save chances for Jax.
Even if it’s only somewhere in the neighborhood of a few save chances for Jax, his effectiveness on the mound makes him a must-add in leagues with 14 or more teams.
This is, after all, a reliever with a 2.01 ERA, a 1.98 FIP, 81 strikeouts, and just 14 walks and three home runs allowed in 62.2 innings this season.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Twitter).