24. Francisco Lindor (SS, NYM) – Lindor gave us his first 30-30 season in 2023, which is about six years later than I thought he’d do it. Despite the Mets underperforming last season, Lindor managed to pile up home runs, steals, and counting stats while playing through injury (he had a procedure on his elbow early in the offseason and should be back for Spring Training). Lindor may not be the flashiest pick out there, but the floor is quite high due to his durability, power, and ability to steal bases in the new stolen base environment. It’s also worth noting that our own Carson Picard did a bit of a career breakdown on Lindor and it’s a testament to just how good Lindor has been in his career.
Tier 4
25. Elly De La Cruz (3B/SS, CIN) – De La Cruz is undoubtedly one of the most electrifying athletes in the game, possessing 25+ home run power and 50 stolen base speed, but the 21-year-old infielder has some growing to do in the decision-making department. It might surprise you to know that Elly is actually good at making contact—our PLV contact metrics show that he makes contact more often than we’d expect on a pitch-by-pitch basis when he swings. The primary issue for Elly is that he swings far too often at pitches that no one can do anything with. The exciting part is that we saw Elly start to make this adjustment during the season, and even though the stats didn’t follow (he faded at the end of the season), the fact that his process was dramatically improving makes me very interested in jumping on board with Elly if the price is even remotely reasonable.
26. Michael Harris II (OF, ATL) – Harris II rebounded nicely after the famously slow start to the season. It was so bad that I nearly dropped him off my top 150, though I’m glad I thought better of it as he put up yet another batting average over .290 with almost 20 home runs and exactly 20 stolen bases. It was good to see Harris finally get out of the nine-hole and start hitting closer to the middle of the lineup, which should have an immensely positive impact on his so-far lackluster counting stat totals, and the sub-20% strikeout rate is a credit to his excellent hand-eye coordination and contact ability. Harris is highly unlikely to start taking many walks, but his quick bat and athleticism give him 25-25 upside with a high batting average and improved counting stats.
27. Adolis García (OF, TEX) – The power is very real and I expect his 27 home runs from 2022 to be a true floor for 2024, though the lack of steals from García in 2023 is a bit of a bummer considering the improved stolen bases across the league. This downturn is likely a combination of factors—he’s slowing down physically (he’s dropped from 93rd percentile speed when he debuted in 2018 to 49th percentile speed in 2023 according to Statcast), he had a new manager that isn’t known for being overly aggressive (steals were down for multiple Rangers in 2023), and also he now has a significantly improved lineup ahead of him with the additions of Seager and Semien. I’m not expecting most of those missing steals to return as each of these factors is likely to continue in 2024, but García’s raw power and strong supporting cast (that should get even better as Carter and Jung develop) should make the floor high enough to keep him among the top 30 hitters with a ceiling that’s inside the top 20.
28. Luis Robert Jr. (OF, CWS) – We finally got the full season we’ve been hoping for, and the power and speed did not disappoint as he put up 68 combined home runs and stolen bases. No one should be questioning LuBob’s upside, but there’s plenty of room to question the floor. The strikeout rate rolling chart is one that deeply concerns me as it suggests this new elevated strikeout rate may be here to stay, and it is very difficult to find consistency with a strikeout rate that hovers around 29%—especially when a guy already deals with volatility and health issues. By talent, Robert should be in Tier 3, but the number of red and yellow flags means he’s best for team builds that already have some stability at the top.
29. Bo Bichette (SS, TOR) – A second straight season of reduced steals (25 in 2021, 13 in 2022, and just five in 2023) puts the overall upside in question, to be sure, and you have to wonder what he could look like if he started pulling the ball more and/or putting the ball in the air more consistently. The ratios are excellent and should remain excellent, but there has to be more than 25 home runs if the stolen base stoppage continues. This ranking is because I do believe that there’s a path towards more, either with more steals or more home runs, and the floor is so high that I couldn’t justify dropping him further.
30. Randy Arozarena (OF, TBR) – We’ve got a pretty good sense of what Arozarena is at this stage of his career—a 20-home run, 20-stolen base guy who should have a decent batting average and plenty of counting stats by the end of the season, though the journey will be rough at times due to his volatile swing-decision tendencies. It’s well worth weathering the storms when they pop up, and I’m curious whether the downturns will be more manageable thanks to an improved walk rate he showed in 2023.
Tier 5
31. Jose Altuve (2B, HOU) – I’m not ready to say that injuries are a huge issue for Altuve, though he’s heading into his age-34 season and is coming off the most missed games in his career. On the bright side, Atluve gave us 17 home runs and 14 steals in just 90 games with a .311 batting average, which is a 30 home run, 25 stolen base pace over 162 games, and a 26 home run, 21 stolen base pace over a more realistic 140 games. The Astros should continue to be a highly competitive team in 2024, and as long as Altuve is in the lineup, he should contribute to all five categories.
32. Royce Lewis (3B, MIN) – Injuries are impossible to ignore when talking about Royce Lewis’s career. He missed all of 2020 and 2021 with injuries and appeared between the majors and minors in just 118 games over the last two seasons. The production has been outstanding when Lewis has been on the field since his return to the field in 2022, and the charts below are good signs of how he’s adapting to the majors. That said, his small major league sample size and extensive injury history make Lewis an extreme risk-reward play. The charts are INCREDIBLY promising, though. I mean, look at these beauties.
33. Manny Machado (3B, SDP) – A down year for Machado is 30 home runs, 91 RBI, and a .258 batting average, it seems. The highly dependable third baseman has been a strong contributor at third base for nine consecutive seasons, and it’s hard to imagine Machado not doing it again in 2024. There are some questions about how much talent will be around him during the season with Soto being traded and Tatis having a worrisome injury history plus a bit of a downturn in performance. Even if the Padres aren’t a high-powered offense in 2024, Machado has shown he can produce in just about any environment. He’s not getting younger, but he should be a high-floor option who bats in the heart of the order on a team that, at worst, should still be pretty decent at the top half of the order.
34. Oneil Cruz (SS, PIT) – Injuries robbed us of a Oneil Cruz breakout in 2023, but all of the pieces are there for 2024 to be the year. While the power hadn’t shown itself in that nine-game sample last season, the high walk rate and low strikeout rate were a continuation of the trends we saw at the end of 2022. Cruz is a player with 30-30 upside, and if he can show that he’s capable of even average decision-making, the 6’7″ shortstop could be a top-20 hitter as soon as this year. As we discussed in one of the panels for PitchCon, there’s a good chance the price on Cruz shoots up in the spring when the statcast data makes its rounds, and folks remember that this guy can hit the ball 120 miles an hour. This is an aggressive ranking, perhaps, but I think more and more will start to see the light when he’s back on the field.
35. Gunnar Henderson (3B/SS, BAL) – It was rough for two full months as Henderson hit just .201/.332/.370 with a 31% strikeout rate through the end of May with many questioning whether he’d be a bust for 2023. The script flipped quickly, though, as he slashed .278/.323/.538 over the remainder of the season with 23 home runs, 72 runs scored, 68 RBI, and eight steals with a dramatically reduced 23.3% strikeout rate. Making that adjustment—which oddly enough came from being intentionally more aggressive—was critical, and hopefully, he can continue to balance his aggression with making contact.
I’m curious about whether they’ll keep Henderson at the top of the order or if they’ll ever let Mullins sneak back into that role, but regardless Henderson should have a prime spot in a lineup that surprised in 2023 and should get even stronger in 2024.
36. Kyle Schwarber (OF, PHI) – Two seasons in Philly, two straight seasons of setting career highs in home runs (46 in 2022, 47 in 2023). It comes with a .200 batting average, unfortunately, but he’s second in home runs, seventh in runs scored, and ninth in RBI in all of baseball since the start of 2022. If you’re intentionally punting batting average or are in an OBP league, you could argue he’s in Tier 4.
37. Bryan Reynolds (OF, PIT) –While I hoped that there’d be a bit more of a ceiling for Reynolds, he’s now put up three straight seasons of 24 or more home runs and has finished 14th, 24th, and 20th in the outfield in those campaigns. Counting stats are tougher to come by for Reynolds than other similar outfielders already on this list due to the fact he plays for the Pirates, but the floor is so high that it’s not too tough for me to squeeze Reynolds into my top 40.
38. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (OF, MIA) – If healthy, Jazz could be a 30-30 type of player and could also give us improved counting stats if the Marlins continue to find good pieces for their lineup. Of course, health has been quite fleeting for the shortstop-turned-outfielder as he’s missed 205 games over the last three seasons. In addition, Jazz has a troubling 29.2% career strikeout rate and hasn’t given us any signs that it will change. The upside is indisputable, but the floor is incredibly low.
39. Mike Trout (OF, LAA) – He’s still Mike Trout, folks. Yes, he’s missed a lot of time over the past three seasons and wasn’t exactly a picture of health before then either, but his 134 wRC+ over 82 games in 2023 was the lowest single-season mark he’s posted in the big leagues since his 40-game campaign in 2011 (his rookie season). Being 34% better than average is bad for Mike Trout. Let that sink in. If I already had steals wrapped up with earlier picks, I might consider moving Trout up over guys like Jazz and Hoerner.
40. Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) – Yelich appears to have figured out his chronic back issues after years of struggling and it led to his best season since 2019 as he hit 19 home runs, scored 106 runs, and swiped 28 bags with a .278 batting average and .370 OBP. The stolen bases might come down just a bit due to the aging curve, but another season with close to 20 home runs and 25 stolen bases is certainly in the cards, and the healthier back should help keep those ratios up a little higher than years past as well.