Tier 18
201. Brice Turang (2B/SS, MIL) – Turang will struggle to reach double-digit home runs due to how often he hits the ball up the middle and to the opposite field combined with his limited power and propensity to focus on line drives, but his 26 stolen bases in 2023 should be at least mostly repeatable in 2024 as he enters the season with the inside track to the second base job in Milwaukee. Turang will probably hurt you in every category but steals, but that’s how it goes for 25 stolen bases at this part of the player pool.
202. Alejandro Kirk (C, TOR) – Being a very bankable 10-home run guy who can hit .270 with a .350 OBP is worth something, and to me, it’s this much. He’s safely inside the top 200 if you’re in an OBP or points league thanks to that one-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio he’s shown over his career.
203. Javier Báez (SS, DET) –Can Javy hit 15 home runs and steal 15 bases in 2024? Sure. Can he at all return to the 31 home runs he hit in 2021 that also came with 18 steals? Probably not. Interestingly, Javy has become much better at controlling strikeouts, posting a career-best 22.9% strikeout rate in 2023. Unfortunately, it came with a .222/.267/.325 line and a 61 wRC+. The reduced strikeouts aren’t a result of increased patience as Javy’s swing rate is still about the same and he’s chasing as much as ever. Instead, the reduced strikeouts are coming from the fact that pitchers just aren’t throwing him any strikes (only about a third of pitches thrown to Javy are in the zone) combined with an improved contact rate in the zone. Unless Javy can also start turning more of that contact into fly balls and line drives, the upside is probably capped at 15-20 home runs with 12-15 steals, but he will play a bunch and that is worth something in some formats.
204. Jake Fraley (OF, CIN) – 15 home runs and 21 steals over 111 games should get me more excited, but between the crowded roster, his extensive injury history, and his team’s complete unwillingness to let him face left-handed pitching, I think 2023 represents Fraley’s realistic ceiling. It has great value over shorter periods, but he’s unlikely to be on rosters for a full season outside of deep formats.
205. Elias Díaz (C, COL) – I’m not sure Díaz can repeat the 141 games played in 2023 that drove him to 14 home runs and 72 RBI (they signed Jacob Stallings in January likely to give Díaz a breather in 30-40 games, if not more), but when he plays at home he’ll be a popular streamer for batting average and a little bit of pop.
206. Masyn Winn (SS, STL) – It was a debut to forget for Winn in 2023, but he should slot in as the starting shortstop for the Cardinals in 2024 and could certainly work his way to 10 home runs and 15 steals if he makes a few adjustments. Until that happens, though, he’ll be stuck at the bottom of the batting order and providing too little of anything to be roster-worthy in standard leagues.
207. Tyler Stephenson (C/1B, CIN) – As with Díaz, I doubt Stephenson gets to play anywhere near 140 games again in 2024 (he’s almost certainly not playing 51 games between 1B and DH like he did last season), but double-digit home runs and 100 combined runs and RBI make him a very serviceable second catcher.
208. Stone Garrett (OF, WSH) – Garrett won’t be ready to go on Opening Day, but his .271/.335/.477 line in 116 career games is worth waiting for in deep leagues as it comes with 17-20 home run upside if he plays in 130 games. He’s struck out a lot (30.7% of the time), but he seemed to get better at making stronger decisions as 2023 progressed.
209. Jesús Sánchez (OF, MIA) – Sanchez has a lot more power than his 14 home runs in 2023 would suggest, as evidenced by his 46.3% hard-hit rate. The issue for Sanchez comes from his decision-making, particularly on pitches outside of the zone. Those bad decisions often lead to bad contact, leaving Sanchez with a ground-ball rate near 50%. Until he can consistently pick the right pitches to swing at (and therefore drive more balls in the air), we won’t get to see the raw 25 home run upside that currently lies dormant in his bat.
210. Michael Conforto (OF, SFG) – I’d like to think that there’s another big power season in Conforto’s bat, but two straight seasons of slugging .384 make it tough to hold out too much hope. Conforto opens the season as the regular DH for the Giants, and his high walk rate and low strikeout rate make the floor pretty safe, especially in OBP leagues. There’s a chance he spikes another 20+ home run season, but don’t get your hopes too high.
211. Charlie Blackmon (OF, COL) – He only played in 96 games last year, but Blackmon still showed the ability to provide solid ratios (.279/.363/.440) with 15 home run pop (8 in just over half a season). There’s nothing too exciting here, and I’m not sure I start him on the road, but Blackmon remains a streamable option in most formats.
212. LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B/OF, SFG) – Wade Jr. was finally mostly healthy for a season, and he returned decent value (good value in OBP leagues) with 17 home runs and 64 runs scored. Wade Jr. should hit near the middle of San Francisco’s lineup, though the quality of that lineup makes it hard to project more than 110-120 combined runs and RBI to go along with 16-18 home run power. The floor is high, but the ceiling is fairly low.
213. Rowdy Tellez (1B, PIT) – In the single season where Rowdy played a full season, he hit 35 home runs. Now there’s a reason Toronto and Milwaukee didn’t want to play him every day (he’s awful against lefties), but the Pirates don’t have a lot of other options (Connor Joe is not what I generally consider an option), so if you want to roll the dice on a 25 home run season with bad ratios, I won’t stop you. Heck, if he starts pulling his fly balls a bit more, he could even hit more than that.
214. Mitch Haniger (OF, SEA) – Haniger has lost two straight seasons to injury (just 114 games played in 2022-2023), but he did hit 39 home runs for Seattle back in 2021. Would it be that weird if Haniger stayed healthy and hit 25 home runs with maybe a .240 batting average? Well, yes, but not that weird.
215. Will Benson (OF, CIN) – Apart from a 31.3% strikeout rate, and a wRC+ of 3 against lefties (not a typo, he was 97% worse than average players against same-side pitching), there was a lot to like about Benson’s 2023 season. The crowded Reds roster makes a full-time role all but impossible to imagine for Benson, but as a platoon player, he can certainly get to 15 home runs and 15 stolen bases. The .275 batting average will almost certainly come down to something more like .230-240 due to his zone contact issues and some normal luck regression, but he’ll be very streamable throughout the season.
216. DJ LeMahieu (1B/2B/3B, NYY) – It was a tough season in the Bronx, but LeMahieu did hit 15 home runs and heads into 2024 as the leadoff man for the Yankees in front of Judge and Soto. A healthy LeMahieu could easily get to 90-100 runs scored along with a decent batting average, and that’s more upside than most at this part of the rankings.
Tier 19
217. Elehuris Montero (1B/3B, COL) – If the young corner infielder could get a handle on his 34.8% strikeout rate, he could be a 20-25 home run hitter with a .250-.260 batting average. Montero had solid strikeout rates in the minors but has not shown he can adapt to major league breakers yet. Until he does, he’s a low-floor dart throw.
218. Brenton Doyle (OF, COL) – 10 home runs and 22 steals in 126 games ain’t too bad, and the Rockies are likely to give Doyle a full season as their center fielder in 2024. He achieved these numbers despite posting a mind-blowing 19 wRC+ in Coors Field last season, which I have to think is some kind of fluke. If Doyle is even close to average at home in 2024, he’ll be a popular streamer in those games.
219. Luke Raley Jr. (1B/OF, SEA) – 19 home runs and 14 steals is nothing to sneeze at, but Raley’s issues with left-handed pitching and strikeouts make it hard to see a path to a consistent role. It also doesn’t help that Raley lost his fire down the stretch, hitting .196/.272/.366 with a 35.2% strikeout rate in his final 36 games. I would guess that he platoons with any number of bench guys near the bottom of Seattle’s lineup, and that’s far less appealing than his previous situation.
220. Harrison Bader (OF, NYM) – You can’t project Bader for more than 110 games, but even in that short amount of time he should hit a couple of home runs (up to 10, I’d guess) and steal 20 bases with bad ratios. That has a certain utility in some formats, and his hot streaks will land him on even some 12-team rosters for a few weeks. He’d be a 15 home run plus 30 stolen base threat if he played anything close to a full season, but he hasn’t done that since 2019.
221. Hunter Goodman (1B/OF, COL) – Goodman has a boatload of power and what appears to be an everyday role in the Colorado outfield, which means that he’ll be interesting whenever the Rockies are at home (which, of course, is 81 times). The ratios on the road will be too much to bear for most managers, but Goodman could very well finish with a .250 batting average and 25 home runs.
222. Seth Brown (1B/OF, OAK) – Brown should hit 25 home runs if he plays a full season, but he’ll do so with minimal counting stats for a full-time player and also will hurt your ratios. That’s useful in deeper formats and his volume will keep him relevant there, but shallow leaguers should look for more upside.
223. Wilyer Abreu (OF, BOS) – Abreu can hit the ball hard and run a bit, as shown by his 24 home runs and 11 steals in 114 games across Triple-A and the majors last season, plus he should be able to hit for a decent average thanks to his elevated line drive rates. Playing time is a bit of a question mark, though, as he may sit out against lefties with Bobby Dalbec and Rob Refsnyder on the roster.
224. Brandon Marsh (OF, PHI) – The ceiling and floor are pretty close together with Marsh, as he’ll likely hit somewhere around .260 with 10-15 home runs and 10-15 stolen bases. I’m a little bit intrigued about the spiked walk rate in 2023 (12.5%, almost double his totals from 2021 and 2022), as it could lead to more stolen bases and make him a viable fifth or sixth outfielder in OBP leagues, but otherwise, there isn’t much to see here besides a strikeout rate that makes him fairly streaky.
225. JJ Bleday (OF, OAK) – I’ll let the charts tell the story, but I am curious about whether Bleday can hold on to this power along with his decision-making to overcome his limited contact ability.
226. Shea Langeliers (C, OAK) – A classic second catcher who can hit 20 home runs and also .210. There are plenty of builds that can benefit from the power boost at catcher, and maybe he finds just a bit better luck (and a less extreme fly ball approach) to get that average closer to .225 or .230.
227. J.D. Davis (1B/3B), SFG) – Davis is one of the best in the league at judging the strike zone and is a plus decision-maker with enough power to be a 20-home run threat, but he’s always struggled mightily at making contact. This skillset leads to a lot of streakiness, so shallow leaguers are better off streaming him while deep league folks can roster him full-time but may need to bench him a week or two per month based on whether he’s hot or cold and the upcoming matchups.
228. Whit Merrifield (2B/OF, FA) – Landing place and role will play a big part in how we rank Merrifield. If he lands somewhere that he will be given the chance to hit near the top of the lineup with a manager who likes to steal bases, Merrifield had a chance to be a top-150 hitter. If he goes somewhere that wants him to hit near the bottom of the lineup with a manager who is conservative on the base paths, then he could fall outside the top 200. I am projecting the latter.
229. Colton Cowser (OF, BAL) – The fantasy community seems to be down on Cowser after a disappointing major league debut last season. While his struggles at the major league level are relevant, fantasy managers should not ignore his 136 wRC+ at Triple-A. This is a talented prospect with plus power and a strong hit tool. Baltimore’s crowded lineup prevents him from ranking higher on this list.
Here is what Martin wrote about Cowser back in November:
“There are so many things to love about Cowser’s future. I think the bat is excellent and I believe in the skills. There are no reasons to think he cannot make adjustments and figure out off-speed pitching at the next level. Once he settles in, we are looking at an All-Star caliber player for many years to come.”
230. Ramón Laureano (OF, CLE) – A healthy Laureano can still hit 15 home runs and steal 15-20 bases, and if healthy the Guardians are all but forced to play the 29-year-old outfielder (I could have sworn he was much older) regularly. The ratios will be ugly, but double-digit power and speed and a clear path to playing time aren’t easy to find down here.
Tier 20
231. Michael Massey (2B, KCR) – There’s enough hit tool and power here for Massey to be a .250 hitter who threatens to hit 20 home runs and swipes a handful of bags, and Massey will get every opportunity to do so in 2024 for a rebuilding Royals team. Baseball Savant thinks Massey was a pretty unlucky hitter last season as he underperformed his expected batting average by 30 points and his expected slugging by 50 points, and our own internal expected stats (which take batted ball direction into account) think he was even more unlucky than that! I’m not sure there’s enough upside here for me to draft Massey in a 12-team league, but those in deeper formats could find some sneaky value.
232. Yan Gomes (C, CHC) – Gomes hit a surprisingly serviceable .267 last season as the Cub’s primary backstop, a role he will carry into 2024. 10 home runs is probably about all the veteran catcher can muster, and recreating his 63 RBI could be difficult given that the lineup around him is not as strong as it looked a year ago, but there should be plenty of consistency here for a back-end second catcher in deep leagues.
233. Anthony Rendon (3B, LAA) – Rendon hasn’t played in more than 58 games since his monstrous 2019 campaign where he hit 34 home runs, and while he continued to look like a solid hitter in 2020, injuries have completely thrown things off the rails since. While the plate discipline remains strong, Rendon is slashing .235/.338/.363 over 148 games since the start of 2021 with just 13 home runs. Sure, there’s a chance that Rendon is finally healthy and has another 20-25 home run season in him with strong ratios, but at this point, I think we’d be happy with 15 home runs and useful ratios.
234. Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) – O’Hearn hits the ball hard against right-handers and that should give him a chance to hit in the heart of the Orioles’ order whenever they face right-handed pitching. He’s likely a pure platoon player at this point unless Baltimore gets hit by a lot of injuries, but DFS players and streamers should keep O’Hearn on speed dial whenever a week of right-handed starters is on the schedule.
235. Patrick Wisdom (1B/3B/OF, CHC) – There’s nothing complicated about what Wisdom brings to the table—he hits the ball really far or strikes out trying. None of the ratios (besides slugging) will be good at all, but his versatility (despite the fact he’s not really a good defender at any position) should help him reach 100 games and 25 home runs. Just don’t look too closely at any of the other stats that come with it.
236. Jon Berti (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIA) – I was stunned that Berti, who finally played over 130 games for the first time in his career, stole just 16 bases despite the new stolen base environment (he stole 41 in 2022). If you want to take a gamble on some steals, then the versatile Berti and his 30 stolen base upside is worth a look at the end of drafts, though he’s likely to be a big drag on your runs and RBI (just 33 RBI in 133 games last season).
237. Willi Castro (2B/3B/SS/OF, MIN) – Castro swiped 33 bags in 2023 with a .257/.339/.411 line, which is much better than I ever remembered him being last season. Castro doesn’t have a starting job in Minnesota even with the departure of Polanco, but with multiple injury risks across the lineup (Lewis, Buxton, and Kirilloff, for example), Castro could find a way to another 120 games and 20 or more steals.
238. Ryan Jeffers (C, MIN) – 14 home runs and a .276 batting average is quite a haul for a late-round catcher, and that’s what Jeffers did last season. I doubt Jeffers can overperform his expected batting average by almost 50 points for a second consecutive season, but 14 home runs with a .240 batting average isn’t that bad either at this stage of the draft. Move him down your board considerably if you’re trying to chase upside, but if you’re looking for a solid floor on a late catcher, Jeffers is here for you.
239. Davis Schneider (2B, TOR) – Schneider is highly unlikely to hit anywhere near the .276/.404/.603 he displayed in 141 plate appearances last season, but his ability to keep the ball off the ground combined with his developing power suggests a 20 home run season and a .340 batting average are each plausible outcomes if Schneider can sneak his way into 120 games. The Blue Jays have a couple of players who can man the keystone at any given time, but I think they’d prefer Schneider to be the guy due to his offensive upside over guys like Biggio or Espinal.
240. Ryan Noda (1B/OF, OAK) – OBP leaguers will love the 15% walk rate and 20 home run power, but playing for Oakland means counting stats are mostly unavailable, and Noda’s high strikeout rate will keep him out of most conversations in batting average leagues.
241. Matt Vierling (3B/OF, DET) – At the time of this writing, Vierling is the everyday third baseman in Detroit and doesn’t have any imminent threat to playing time (as I think Jace Jung will spend the first half of the season in the minors, if not longer). I could see Vierling compiling his way to 10-12 home runs and over 100 combined runs and RBI with a .260 batting average, and that kind of floor is nothing to scoff at in draft-and-hold formats.
242. Hunter Renfroe (1B/OF, KCR) – Kansas City isn’t a great place to hit home runs, and some young hitters might push for playing time that the Royals will be more interested in than Renfroe (such as Pratto and Waters), though for now the veteran outfielder appears to have a shot at another 20 home run season. Renfroe has historically held a solid batting average, though his high infield fly rate and diminishing power suggest the floor is considerably lower than it once was.
243. Jake McCarthy (OF, ARI) – Speed upside is the name of the game, and McCarthy is a near lock for 40 steals if he plays a full season. It’s not at all likely he’ll get that kind of opportunity in 2024, but even 100 games should be enough to hit a few home runs while swiping 25 bags.
Tier 21
244. Joey Gallo (1B/OF, WSH) – Gallo has yet another new home, this time with a fairly clear path to 120 starts as the strong side of a platoon in the outfield with whoever happens to be on the Nats bench at any given moment. That should create a path to 20-25 home runs for Gallo, albeit with his infamous sub-.200 batting average and not-quite-as-awful .310 OBP.
245. Joc Pederson (1B/OF, ARI) – Joc is a classic platoon hitter who, with the right schedule, is streamable in 12-teamers and is serviceable as a back-end outfielder in 15-teamers. It’s actually better for his fantasy value for Pederson to remain in a platoon as he’s almost certainly a negative whenever he faces a southpaw, and he can still get to 20 or more home runs despite sitting against same-side pitching.
246. Joey Ortiz (2B, MIL) – Milwaukee dealt away ace Corbin Burnes and received Joey Ortiz as part of the package in return. Ortiz has posted strong numbers in the minor leagues but did not receive consistent playing time last season in Baltimore. The move to Milwaukee opens the door for an everyday role increasing his value for 2024. His hit tool profiles to be his best attribute at this point and there are concerns over how well his raw power can translate to game power. He is still a name to know for 2024 and should have nice multi-positional versatility giving his fantasy value a boost.
Jack ranked Ortiz as Baltimore’s 10th best prospect which you can check out here.
247. Austin Wells (C, NYY) – The Yankees disappointing 2023 season allowed several top prospects to make their major league debut. Wells was one of them and hit four home runs in just 19 games. Thanks to his power, he has the offensive potential to be a standout fantasy option at catcher. The realistic truth though is that the Yankees will likely limit his playing time behind the dish as he continues to work on his defense in 2024. Splitting his time at catcher pushes him down to 14th on this list.
Here is what Matt wrote on Wells back in November:
“Having seen Wells live a few times, the excitement for him in Yankee Stadium is substantial. The short porch and his pull-side home run power are extremely enticing from a fantasy perspective. He could be a difference-maker in the home run category from the catcher position.”
248. Jake Rogers (C, DET) – Roughly 20 home runs and a very low batting average is a lock in my mind as Rogers displays classic good decision-making with classic poor contact skills that we’ve seen from many catchers with a similar basic profile.
249. Connor Wong (C, BOS) – Wong doesn’t have the pop of some of the low-ratio power guys at the back end of the catching pool, but he makes up for it with his ability to steal six to eight bases and hit better than .230. It ain’t much, but it’s honest work.
250. Carlos Santana (1B, MIN) – Santana was shockingly useful last season, hitting 23 home runs, swiping six bases, and contributing a whopping 164 combined runs and RBI. It’s unlikely Santana gets anywhere close to those counting stat totals again, but he should be able to swat 19-21 home runs with strong plate discipline that makes him rosterable in 14-team and deeper OBP formats.
251. Chris Taylor (3B/SS/OF, LAD) – I’m sure Taylor will finesse his way into 120 games again for the Dodgers somehow, though the strikeout rate stayed over 30% once again which means his batting average is probably stuck below .240 going forward. You’ll probably stream him at some points when he faces a lefty-heavy slate of games, but otherwise, the upside is too low to pay much attention to in 12-team formats.
252. Orelvis Martinez (3B/SS, TOR) – Martinez has the raw power to be a 35-40 home run threat if he can hit enough to stick at the major league level. He made sizeable improvements to his batted ball profile last season which should help provide more stability in his batting average. The Blue Jays have openings at multiple positions in their infield making Martinez a sneaky prospect to target in your redraft leagues.
Here is what Matt concluded for Martinez in our composite article:
“Even with the shift to third base, Martinez’s power should play well from a fantasy perspective. He is especially intriguing in points leagues (even more Ottoneu) where the lack of steals does not hurt as much. The improvements to his hit tool provide fantasy relevance in regular leagues as well and he should get a chance to prove himself at the major league level in 2024.”
253. Harold Ramírez (1B/OF, TBR) – Batting average is rare in the late rounds, but Ramirez has hit .300 or better in each of the last two seasons. He doesn’t hit the ball hard nor does he steal many bags, but batting average and OBP are categories too and Ramirez can help fill them.
254. Dylan Carlson (OF, STL) – The one-time prospect hasn’t been able to recreate his modest success from 2021 when he hit 18 home runs with 79 runs scored and a .266 batting average because, well, he just doesn’t hit the ball very hard. That being said, he does take plenty of walks and should find his way into 100 games or so. That should lead to 12-14 home runs and up to five steals with what ought to be a .250 batting average.
255. Jackson Merrill (SS, SDP) – Late last season, the Padres started to explore moving Merrill to a different position. He started games at second base, first base, and the outfield all in an attempt to increase his versatility. Why? Shortstop is blocked and the Padres are trying to figure out how to get his bat into their lineup. Merrill has excellent contact skills and a solid blend of power and speed. The team has a clear opening in left field and Merrill could fill that early on in 2024. He is still just 20 years old and could continue developing into an offensive force.
Here is what Matt wrote on Merrill back in November:
“Merrill’s strong contact skills are what help make his hit tool the carrying tool. Elsewhere, he is not great at any one thing but good at almost everything. His defensive versatility should help him break through to the major leagues in 2024 and there is potential for even more development. He has an extremely high floor and there is more ceiling here than people realize.”
256. Gary Sánchez (C, FA) – There’s always room somewhere for a catcher who can hit 20 home runs in limited plate appearances, and I imagine that someone will take a look at Sánchez during the spring. Sánchez hit 19 home runs in just 75 games last season, and even though it came with a .217 batting average and .288 OBP, there was enough there to suggest that he’s worth a dice roll.
257. Kyle Isbel (OF, KCR) – Isbel can get to double-digit home runs and steals if given the opportunity, and it seems like that’s what he’ll get as the centerfielder for the Royals 2024. I’m not convinced there’s much more upside than that along with a .240 batting average, but playing every day counts for quite a lot at this stage of the rankings.
258. Garrett Mitchell (OF, MIL) – Mitchell has the pop and speed to hit 15 home runs and steal 15-20 bases, but his hit tool was exposed in a big way in the majors. If he can get that strikeout rate below 30%, Mitchell would have an outside chance at regular playing time, but until he proves he can handle MLB stuff, he’s likely stuck in triple-A.
259. Akil Baddoo (OF, DET) – Baddoo had 11 home runs and 14 steals in 2023, though a deeper outfield threatens to push Baddoo back to the minors to start the season. If the opportunity to start arises, Baddoo could be a 12-15 home run hitter who swipes 20 bases, and that’s more than enough for me to justify keeping Baddoo here in my rankings due to my irrational support and fandom.
260. Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TOR) – His fantastic glove will keep Kiermaier in the lineup when he’s healthy, as infrequent as that may be. While he’s in there, he should also hit around .250 with a bit of pop and speed, but be ready for the inevitable trip to the IL while making another highlight reel diving catch.
261. Travis d’Arnaud (C, ATL) – Atlanta remains surprisingly loyal to d’Arnaud, giving him plenty of run as the second catcher along with occasional DH at-bats. 12 home runs sound about right at this point in his career, and I think he can rebound his ratios to something closer to his career .250/.312/.425.
Tier 22
262.Myles Straw (OF, CLE) – Straw is a mortal lock for 20 stolen bases and 50 runs scored. Sure, he’s one of the worst hitters with a full-time gig, but he’s fast.
263. Ezequiel Duran (3B/SS/OF, TEX) – Duran is too aggressive most of the time with pitches he needs to leave alone, but he made it work in 2023 and put up strong ratios with some pop and speed. I feel pretty strongly that he’s the odd man out in Texas with kids like Carter and Langford on the rise, but if a few guys hit the IL as they did in 2023, then Duran will have some streaming appeal.
264. Freddy Fermin (C, KC) – Fermin was fantastic in his 70-game sample in 2023, hitting .281/.321/.461 with nine home runs. Injury cut his campaign short, though, and being the backup to Salvador Perez doesn’t often create much opportunity for playing time.
265. Brooks Lee (SS, MIN) – With the trade of Jorge Polanco, Lee has one less player to hurdle in order to become a regular in the Twins’ lineup. Since being drafted eighth overall in 2022, Lee has quickly worked his way through Minnesota’s minor league system. His extremely smooth swing produces tons of line drives and he consistently produces hard contact. The two players ahead of him at shortstop and third base (Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa) have a detailed injury history that should allow Lee to get his chance early on in the 2024 season.
Here is what Steve wrote on Lee back in November:
“Lee should get a good look in Spring Training to break camp as an everyday player for the Twins in 2024. With Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa on the left side of the diamond, Lee may have to move to the other side of the field. Either way, this is a good problem for the Twins to have with two young players in Lee and Lewis hoping to make an impact in 2024.”
266. C.J. Cron (1B, FA) – Cron was on a 25 home run pace before injuries ended his 2023 season, and while I don’t expect him to find his way into another starting role, I do think he can find a job and hit 20 home runs somewhere with a .250 batting average.
267. Mickey Moniak (OF, LAA) – Moniak had a nice little hot streak in 2023, but his struggles with making contact in the zone suggested that he was going to be prone to slumps and that’s exactly what we saw in the latter part of the season. The strikeout rate jumped to 36.7% in the second half and he slugged just .387 — a far cry from the .646 he slugged in the first half. That said, Moniak should be useful against righties (132 wRC+ against them last season) even with his aggressive approach and limited contact skills.
268. Tim Anderson (SS, FA) – Everything went wrong for Anderson in 2023 as he hit just a single home run and stole only 13 bases over 123 games for the White Sox. Anderson is currently looking for a new team and I suspect he’ll find someone who needs a middle infielder, and there should still be 10 home runs and 20 steals in him if he plays a full season. He’s more likely to find a 110-120 game role (which may not be the worst thing for him considering his injury history), but there could still be some juice to squeeze in the right situation.
269. Brandon Belt (1B, FA) – A lefty who can hit .250 and slug .490 will always be able to find work.
270. Michael Busch (3B, CHC) – Michael Busch was finally set free from the log jam of depth in Los Angeles. He gets a fresh start in Chicago where he is hoping to turn his impressive minor league numbers into major league success. Busch has struggled with strikeouts throughout his professional career and those struggles were prevalent in his major league debut last season. He has immense power which will need to play up if he lands at first base long term. There is significant risk in his profile despite a clear path to playing time after being traded.
Here is what Matt wrote on Busch back in November:
“The Dodgers rarely waste time letting a prospect work through things at the major league level. That said, Busch has shown all of the skills to be a very useful fantasy asset if he ever gets his chance at the major league level. .275 with 25 home runs is a realistic outcome.”
271. Brett Baty (3B, NYM) – The prospect shine has worn off considerably due to his excessive ground ball rates, but Baty’s power could theoretically shine through if he’s able to get the ball off the ground. His minor league track record suggests this will be a significant hurdle, though, so it’s hard to expect much from him in 2024.
272. Mark Vientos (1B/3B, NYM) – Like his teammate Baty, Vientos also struggled with too many grounders in the majors over the last two seasons, though his minor league track record isn’t quite so groundball heavy (though it does have more strikeout concerns than Baty’s). One of these two should win a starting job in 2024, and this ranking suggests I have no idea which it will be.
273. Victor Robles (OF, WSH) – Robles should be able to steal 20-25 bases in the new speed environment and he managed to steal 8 in just 36 games last season. There’s absolutely no power to speak of here and he’s a career .238 hitter, but darn it, he can steal some bases and that’s not easy to find down here. It helps that he’s likely the starting centerfielder in Washington, too, which means 120-140 games should be available.
274. Heston Kjerstad (UT, BAL) – Kjerstad’s ranking in Tier 24 has nothing to do with his talent. Instead it has to do with the crowdedness of Baltimore’s lineup. Fellow prospect Colton Cowser was already discussed and Kjerstad is in a similar situation. His 2024 playing time is likely dependent on struggles from either Ryan O’Hearn or Ryan Mountcastle next season. If given the chance, Kjerstad has the raw power to be an impactful fantasy asset even if he lands at first base long-term.
Here is what Martin had to say about Kjerstad back in November:
“The story of Kjerstad and overcoming a life-threatening condition is an impressive one. His grit and determination to work his way to the big leagues show his character and motivation. I think Kjerstad starts the season at Triple-A and will be the first guy to get promoted this spring.”
275. René Pinto (C, TBR) – Pinto doesn’t quite have the power of some of the other catchers ranked above him, but he should be able to hit 15 home runs or so in 100 games with poor ratios. That’s acceptable for a catcher you draft this late.
276. Trent Grisham (OF, NYY) – Grisham is no longer an everyday player, which means getting to double-digit home runs and steals could be a little harder than it was in San Diego, but lefties in the Bronx will always be worth keeping at least a small bit of your attention due to the favorable park. If the Yankees decide to take Judge out of center to help preserve his health more, we could see Grisham with a more prominent role, and deep league players might then consider a cheap waiver bid to see what happens.
277. Nick Senzel (2B/3B/OF, WSH) – It appears that Senzel is slated to be the Nationals’ starting third baseman next season, and while he’s got very limited upside—something like 15 home runs and eight steals in a full season—he’s got plenty of position eligibility and won’t completely ruin your batting average (probably).
278. Drew Waters (OF, KCR) – Waters stole 16 bases and hit eight home runs in 98 games last season, and while he’s likely to start the season in the minors, he could certainly put up double-digits in both home runs and steals if he plays 100 games. The strikeout rate remains a big issue (33% in 130 games in the majors), but if he can walk 10% of the time, Waters could be of interest to deep OBP managers.
279. Mike Yastrzemski (OF, SFG) – If 15-17 home runs, a .230 batting average, and 120 or so combined runs and RBI sound useful to you, then here they are. I suppose there’s upside for 20 home runs, but the Giants have a weird and crowded outfield that will make it hard for Yaz to get the plate appearances he needs to get to that number.
280. Colson Montgomery (SS, CWS) – Montgomery has seemed to be on the verge of breaking out for several seasons now but has never been able to post the offensive numbers that generate tons of attention. Still, he ranks as one of the game’s top prospects and has impressive raw power. The lack of talent on the White Sox depth chart gives him a chance to make his Major League debut at shortstop in 2024 despite his long-term home likely being at third base. Montgomery profiles to be a four-category fantasy asset although playing for the White Sox likely limits his 2024 value.
Here is what Steve wrote on Montgomery from our composite article in November:
“Montgomery is a top prospect in all of baseball and could be a cornerstone for the White Sox’s foreseeable future. 2024 spring training could open an opportunity after a stint in the Arizona Fall League for Montgomery to reach his everyday role with the White Sox as soon as possible. “
281. Justyn-Henry Malloy (OF, DET) – The Tigers surprised many by not promoting Justyn-Henry Malloy to the major leagues last season. Malloy has done nothing but hit since being drafted by Atlanta in 2021 and that did not change last season. Malloy’s fantasy value is highest in OBP leagues where his impressive walk rates lead to more value. Outside of that, he has plus raw power and has shown the ability to hit for a solid average throughout his professional career. The lack of a true defensive home could limit his playing time in 2024.
Here is what Steve wrote on Malloy back in November:
“Malloy is a good hitter with a patient approach which gives him a better chance to be successful at the MLB level. Malloy has done all he can at the minor league level so the Tigers should give him a full season to see what he can do in Detroit.”
Tier 23
282. Jo Adell (OF, LAA) – Adell really has nothing left to prove in the minors, and he continues to show upside in the power department (27 home runs in 91 games across Triple-A and MLB), but that 35.4% strikeout rate over 619 MLB plate appearances tells the story, and it’s not a pretty one. If you want to shoot for the moon and see if you can catch 25 home run lightning in a bottle, I won’t stop you.
283. Adalberto Mondesi (SS, FA) – Speaking of lightning in a (very fragile) bottle, Mondesi remains a free agent (likely because he’s appeared in just 50 games since the start of 2021) but if he lands anywhere that has any interest in playing him in 50 or more games, we could see him return to the land of 20 or more stolen bases in very short order. The ratios will be poisonous and the power will be paltry, but if you’ve got a need for speed and a gambler’s risk tolerance, Mondesi could be…something?
284. Adam Duvall (OF, FA) – Assuming Duvall lands somewhere that can give him 110-120 starts, he should hit 22-25 home runs with a low batting average. I’m not sure what the market is for right-handed corner outfielders who strike out a lot, but I’d guess that it’s not all that big. If I knew he’d get the 120 games, he’d probably be up 10-20 spots.
85. Jasson Domínguez (OF, NYY) – Dominguez was another Yankee prospect who got a chance to make his major league debut last season. His major league career started with a bang as Domínguez hit four home runs in his first eight games. Unfortunately, Domínguez tore the UCL in his right elbow and was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. Domínguez is unlikely to return until after the All-Star Break pushing him down this ranking list. For leagues with multiple IL slots, he could be a sneaky draft and stash option.
Here is what Martin wrote about Domínguez last November:
“After undergoing Tommy John surgery, we will not likely see Domínguez back in the major leagues until the middle of 2024. However, the upside he flashed in his first stint is indicative of the kind of potential he has. Domiíguez is an excellent athlete with the power and speed to be a big-time fantasy asset.”
286. Avisaíl García (OF, MIA) – Health has always been a problem for the 6’4 outfielder, but García’s power and playing time provide just enough upside to a possible 17 home run season while hitting .240-.250.
287. Miguel Vargas (1B/2B, LAD) – Vargas is likely relegated to the minors for most of 2024, but if he can just learn to take the bat off his shoulders every once in a while, he could be a threat to hit 20 home runs with strong ratios.
288. Luis Urías ( 2B/3B, SEA) – His versatility in the infield should help him find 100 games or so for the Mariners, and in that time he should take some walks and hit double-digit home runs. His very limited power and batted ball profile will likely keep the batting average too low to be considered in standard formats, but the double-digit walk rate should have him on deep league OBP radar as a fill-in at various times in the season.
289. Geraldo Perdomo (2B/3B/SS, ARI) – Perdomo is mostly just blocking Lawlar from a fantasy perspective, but NL-only players will certainly appreciate his strong plate discipline and ability to steal 15 bases. He can’t really do much else and I doubt he gets more than 50 runs (he had 71 in 2023 due to some fortunate lineup cards), but he’ll at least start the season as an everyday player.
290. Tyler Black (2B/3B, MIL) – Black seemed like he had a good chance to make the Opening Day roster before the Brewers traded for Joey Ortiz. He still has a chance to do so with a strong spring but could see less playing time. Black has big-time speed and hit 18 home runs last season. His batted ball data suggests that his power is more suspect although his speed is the real deal.
Here is what Martin wrote about Black last November:
“Black is an intriguing profile with his stolen base prowess and high OBP. If the power holds, Black should settle into an everyday role despite his defensive faults.”
291. Nolan Schanuel (1B, LAA) – The Angels wasted no time getting Schanuel up to the major leagues. He appeared in just 22 minor league games before joining the Angels. Schanuel’s patient approach at the plate gives his OBP a stable floor. He also has enough raw power to be an offensive force. The issue is that his batted ball profile prioritizes contact over home runs which lowers his fantasy value at first base.
Here is what Steve wrote on Schanuel last November:
“Schanuel has value because his bat and approach are advanced but if he doesn’t hit for much power or steal many bases, he may not be a top first baseman. Schanuel may have the opportunity for a lot of runs as he often hit at the top of the lineup in 2023.”
292. Cavan Biggio (1B/2B/3B/OF, TOR) – His propensity to hit weak fly balls puts a very hard and low cap on his batting average, but the high walk rate and his 10-home run, six stolen base combo might entice deep OBP league managers.
293. Ceddanne Rafaela (OF, BOS) – Following closely behind Black is Ceddanne Rafaela. Rafaela possesses plus speed and profiles as an outfielder at the major league level. He stands at 5’8” which limits his power projection and adds risk to a suspect hit tool. The Red Sox outfield is crowded and Rafaela will need to prove himself offensively to earn consistent playing time.
Here is what Martin wrote about Rafaela last November:
“The Red Sox gave Rafaela a brief look in September last season, and he offered mixed results. He hit .241 with eight extra-base hits but struck out 33% of the time with a 4.8% walk rate. His glove was great, but the bat was concerning. Rafaela needs a strong offensive Spring Training to give the Sox hope for his future.”
294. Michael A. Taylor (OF, FA) – Taylor is coming off a 21 home run, 13 stolen base season that represents the 95th percentile outcome for a guy who really shouldn’t be playing that many games for most teams. Projections have Taylor hitting 15 home runs, stealing about 10 bases, and hitting roughly .220, which in theory would rank him about 50 spots higher (which isn’t that much this late in the game). Those projections likely assume that someone wants his plus glove in center field, and while that may be the case, a part-time Taylor is not rosterable and that’s what I see as the most likely outcome right now.
295. Liover Peguero (2B/SS, PIT) – Peguero likely will start at the keystone in Pittsburgh and has 15 home run and 15 stolen base upside, though Ji Hwan Bae and Nick Gonzalez will likely eat into 30-40 of his potential starts as the Pirates try to figure out what they have so that they can ensure they trade away the good players and trade for the bad players.
296. Curtis Mead (3B, TBR) – Mead still has some prospect shine on him due to the strong hit tool, and hopefully, he doesn’t sit on the bench as often when he’s next called up to the big leagues. I could see Mead as a 17-20 home run guy with a .270 average and a double-digit walk rate at some point, so keep an eye on him in Triple-A.
297. Vidal Bruján (2B/SS/OF, MIA) – His new team doesn’t run as often as his old one, but Bruján should have a slightly easier path to playing time now that he’s out of Tampa Bay. Bruján is unlikely to provide much fantasy juice outside of the speed department, but given 100 games to run in, Bruján could certainly swipe.
298. Darell Hernaiz (SS, OAK) – There’s double-digit power and speed potential for Hernaiz, but unfortunately it’s stuck in Oakland.
299. Brayan Rocchio (3B/SS, CLE) – Rocchio’s glove will create opportunities that his bat would likely not have opened up, and assuming the 31.4% strikeout rate in his first 86 plate appearances was a mirage (which it likely was), he could hit seven to nine home runs and steal 15 bases while hitting .250. That assumes a full season, though, and the more likely reality is that he sticks to around 100 games and falls short of double-digit home runs or steals.
300. Marco Luciano (SS, SFG) – Giants’ ownership says that Luciano will have a chance to be the regular shortstop, and a path to 120 games is more open now than it ever has been for Luciano before. The high strikeout rate and high groundball rates limit the offensive potential significantly, though, so it’s hard to project more than 15 home runs and his batting average is likely to stick around .220.