Better Tuck Next Time
Kyle Tucker (LAD): 1-2, HR, 2 R, RBI, 2 BB, SB.
Let’s relive one of this year’s biggest fantasy agonies. Shall we? C’mon, it’ll be fun. Like watching QVC or playing duck, duck, goose by yourself. In a corner. Quietly.
On January 21st, Kyle Tucker signed a four-year, $240 M deal. The fantasy narrative wrote itself. Sure, he hit just five home runs in the second half of 2025 while hitting .231. But we know this guy is good. He had a career 138 wRC+, and, not for nothing, he still finished 2025 with 22 home runs and 25 steals. That’s pretty good. He’ll be even better with Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts. How could he not? The money talks. He’s King Tuck!
Welp, that nickname has since been artfully reworded. Tucker entered the series finale against the Reds last Wednesday with a scant 12 home runs and 10 stolen bases. His. 221 average was 45 points below his career mark. He accumulated 74 runs and 59 RBI by mere attrition, thanks to a 12.3% BB rate and 17.5% K rate, both near his career marks. The cold spell had lasted so long that anything good he did seemed accidental. And his PLV power metric cratered to 92, about half a standard deviation below league average. Not great!
And then on September ninth at Dodger Stadium it happened. What did? Jose Trevino climbed the mound, you know, the former Yankee backup catcher, and tossed a lollipop that Tucker banged for his 13th home run. He hit a grand slam two nights later in Miami. And then yesterday, he torched a letter-high fastball from Nick Lodolo. And it wasn’t a GABP special either; it would have been gone in the 29 other parks. He finished last night 1-for-2 with the homer, another run, a pair of walks, and a stolen base.
These three home runs are, of course, too little, too late for the majority of the unfortunate fantasy managers who endured a nothing burger from their second-round pick all year. I’m reminded of the Seinfeld episode where George and Jerry visit their high school pizzeria that’s going out of business and buy a slice. Oh great, that’ll save us. But if you survived with him clogging your roster, I salute you. With three more games this week at the GABP (Lowder, Abbott, and Singer) followed by a series at Dodger Stadium against a dead-duck Giants team, he’s poised to at least go out with a bang.
But then again, he’s been a letdown all year. What do you trust more? The back of his baseball card before the season began or this year’s endless supply of bageled box scores? I’d choose the former, but that’s me. At the very least, a recent comment from Dave Roberts about how Tucker has revamped his swing provides optimism that there might be something behind the recent results. Let’s hope so.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Monday:
Corbin Carroll (ARI): 2-5, HR, R, 3 RBI.
Carroll’s .801 OPS isn’t too far from his career mark of .825, but his recent skid has made a start/sit conundrum; he’s hitting just .214 with five home runs since August 1st. Nonetheless, he gave D’Backs fans a momentary reprieve by hooking a splitter from Jack Ralston just inside the foul pole for a walk-off, two-run bomb. Carroll’s 21st home run keeps Arizona in the hunt for a WC berth; they currently trail San Diego by three games in the loss column. In daily leagues, I’d let the SP matchup dictate the decision, which means I’d probably let him fly for the next two (Junk, Gusto) and go from there.
Jordan Lawlar (ARI): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB.
Lawlar also hit a huge home run for the D’Backs last night, cutting the deficit to 7-6 in the eighth against righty reliever Tyler Zuber. The former top prospect has quietly been pretty solid, slashing .267/ .339/ .455 with five home runs and five steals across 113 PAs. Unfortunately, he’s sitting every third game and hitting ninth. Still, we can file him away as a post-hype sleeper for next year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 4-5, 2B, HR, R, 4 RBI, SB.
His 42nd home run tied Hall of Famer Billy Williams for the most by a lefty in a single season in Cubs history. Speaking of lefties, PCA actually has a higher wRC+ against LHP (157) this year than against RHP (152). Go figure. And, yeah, he’s three steals away from becoming the seventh member of the 40-40 club.
Kyle Teel (CHW): 1-4, 2B, R, 2 RBI, BB.
This is the third consecutive game Teel has hit second in front of Vargas; he had previously hit ninth since returning from the IL on the 4th. It’s difficult to assess what Teel has done so far, because he hasn’t played much (105 PAs). I normally wouldn’t hesitate to chase Teel (.785 OPS last year as a rookie), but his immediate matchups don’t line up favorably; he’ll face three left-handers next (Griffin, Messick, and Valdez). However, he could be a play this weekend (Jobe, Melton, Anderson).
Cole Carrigg (COL): 2-5, HR, R, RBI.
Carrigg’s eighth home run against righty reliever Bradgley Rodriguez cut the Padres’ lead to 7-6 in the eighth (424 feet, 100.2 EV). The rookie switch-hitter owns a .775 OPS across 322 PAs with nine SBs. He’s been noticeably weaker as a right-handed hitter (26.1% K rate). But I think we can overlook that temporarily with the Rockies at Coors Field all week.
Javier Sanoja (MIA): 2-4, 3B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, SB.
Sanoja’s ninth home run came on a knee-high, front-door 94 mph sinker from Corbin Burnes with two down in the fourth. And, yes, it would have been gone in the 29 other parks (397 feet, 103.9 EV). Despite last night’s long ball and stolen base, Sanoja’s superpower is avoiding whiffs; his 8% K rate would rank second only behind Arraez (4.2%) among qualified hitters. The 24-year-old is hitting .293, 50 points higher than last year’s mark.
Jakob Marsee (MIA): 3-4, 3B, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Marsee immediately preceded Sanoja’s ninth home run with his tenth, a solo shot on a hanging, knee-high curveball from Corbin Burnes. He has been quietly productive in the second half, hitting .285 with a 136 wRC+. However, he has stolen just three bases since the break. I’d need to see him creep into the top third of the order again before I’d get too excited.
José Caballero (NYY): 2-4, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB.
Volpe started four consecutive games at second base with Chisholm on the shelf. However, it was Cabby’s turn last night, and he made the most of it. His 14th home run broke a scoreless tie with two outs and the bases empty in the third (371 feet, 103.7 EV). He later slapped a game-tying single to center in the eighth against a drawn-in infield. The former Ray owns a .668 OPS across 429 PAs and has 31 SBs on 42 attempts.
Leo Bernal (STL): 3-4, 2B, RBI.
Bernal is long gone in two catcher leagues, but he is starting to tempt fantasy managers elsewhere. The 22-year-old switch-hitter has played every game since September 1st while slashing .327/ .375/ .558 with three home runs in just over 50 PAs. He slashed .278/ .363/ .468 with 16 home runs across 432 PAs with Triple-A Memphis before his promotion.
A.J. Ewing (NYM): 1-3, HR, R, RBI, BB.
Ewing’s tenth home run came golfing a knee-high curveball from Brandon Young (374 feet, 102.2 EV). The 22-year-old had a rough spell in late July to early August that sent him down the Mets’ order; he hit seventh last night. However, he has percolated lately with three home runs over his last nine games. His .703 OPS doesn’t jump off the page, but he has boosted his value with 23 SBs on 31 attempts. He could become a big-time fantasy threat if he can cut his K rate a tick or so. We shall see.
Featured image by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X) and adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on Bluesky)
