Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo & ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
This week’s group of two start pitchers features minimal sure things. Fortunately, there are a host of pitchers who should be viable for at least one start. Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- Some of the best pitchers in baseball are scheduled to take the field multiple times next week. Garrett Crochet, Jacob deGrom, and Cole Ragans are all currently listed as Tier One options in the Pitcher List Rankings, and they can be started against any opponent with confidence. Fortunately, none of these pitchers has to deal with a truly difficult matchup anyway, so there’s no reason to overthink these guys.
- Logan Webb, Shota Imanaga, and Jack Flaherty are all Tier Three arms, so they have also earned the benefit of starting every time they take the bump. There are some tough matchups here—Imanaga vs. the Mets, Webb at the Padres—but these guys are good enough to success even in suboptimal situations.
- Freddy Peralta is the “outlier” in this group as the lone Tier Four starter. He has some blowup potential, which keeps him from being a true ace. That said, the good far outweighs the bad. He has a 2.65 xERA and 26.5% strikeout rate, and he’s been mostly dominant so far this season. The matchup vs. the Cubs is a bit scary, but there’s plenty of upside there as well.
Most Likely
- The pitchers in this tier are much more questionable, but they still should get the nod in weekly leagues. That starts with Tanner Bibee. He has two average matchups against the Twins and Blue Jays, and he has not looked the part so far this season. His xERA is currently over 5.00, while his strikeout metrics are down across the board. Still, he has enough of a track record that there’s no real cause for concern yet. He had a solid start this week vs. the Yankees—six innings, two earned runs, five strikeouts—so it’s too early to pull the plug.
- Reese Olson is tough to get a feel for. His pitch-modeling metrics are far from ideal, but he’s still posted a 3.29 ERA through his first five starts. He’s coming off a gem in his last outing, racking up seven strikeouts across 7.2 innings vs. the Padres. He limited them to just two hits and one walk, and if he can do that vs. the Padres, he deserves to be started vs. the Astros and Angels. Both teams are currently in the bottom 10 in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and the Angels have the second-highest strikeout rate in that split.
- This is definitely an aggressive ranking for Jack Kochanowicz. He still has to prove that he’s an MLB-caliber pitcher, though his 11-start sample from 2024 is slightly encouraging. The big draw here is obviously the schedule. A matchup in Seattle at the most pitcher-friendly venue in baseball is always appealing, as is a date with the Tigers.
- Can Griffin Canning and the rest of the Mets’ starters continue to dominate? Probably not. Nothing about Canning stands out as exceptional, yet he’s piled up three wins and a 3.12 ERA through his first five starts. Matchups vs. the Nationals and Cardinals are not scary enough to expect much regression yet.
- This is also a pretty aggressive ranking for Brady Singer, who is 63rd out of 90 qualified pitchers in Stuff+. However, he’s pitched to a 3.62 ERA and 2.97 xERA, so it’s hard to knock him too much. He’s yet to allow more than three earned runs in an outing, and he has at least six punchouts in all but one. Expect more of the same vs. the Cardinals and Nationals.
- Nick Pivetta is another pitcher who has underwhelmed from a Stuff+ perspective. That said, his location has been immaculate, ranking eighth among qualified starters in Location+, and he’s ridden that to a 1.20 ERA through five starts. He won’t sustain that all season, but his 2.78 xERA is still a fantastic figure. He’s also been above-average from a strikeout standpoint, so there’s no reason to bench him vs. the Giants or Pirates.
Questionable
- Taj Bradley has all the potential in the world, but he has yet to harness it at the major league level. He’s pitched to an ERA above 5.00 this season, though his 3.65 xERA suggests he’s been a bit unlucky. The Yankees roughed him up for six runs in 5.1 innings in a meeting in mid-April, so there’s plenty of risk with him in that outing. However, you can certainly deploy him against the Royals, who are 29th in wRC+ vs. right-handers so far this season.
- Bowden Francis remains one of fantasy baseball’s biggest enigmas. He’s strung together solid results to start the year, despite there being minimal supporting evidence as to why. His 6.27 xERA his nearly three full runs higher than his actual mark, so the wheels could come off at any second. He’s already started to come back to reality after struggling vs. the Astros this week, so he’s far from a must-start vs. the Red Sox or Guardians.
- Luis L. Ortiz doesn’t have particularly impressive season-long metrics, but he’s pitched better after a disastrous start to the year. He had 10 strikeouts vs. the Royals and eight more vs. the Pirates and Yankees, though New York did tag him for four earned runs. There’s at least enough upside here to justify a start, but there’s some downside as well.
- Bailey Ober is living on reputation more than production at this point. He entered this week at No. 42 in the Pitcher List rankings, though it remains to be seen if he’ll maintain that spot moving forward. His ERA and xERA are both above 5.00, and he has some of the worst Statcast data in all of baseball. Still, he put together back-to-back solid campaigns in 2023 and 2024, so it’s possible this is just a blip on the radar. The matchup in Boston is scary, but he could find some success against the Guardians.
- JP Sears and J.T. Ginn are both tentatively scheduled for multiple starts for the Athletics, and it’s hard to get a feel for either pitcher. Ginn looked good in his first start of the year, but he’s yet to make it through five innings in back-to-back outings. That makes him a bit riskier than Sears. Sears has yet to allow more than three earned runs and has gone at least five innings in all but one outing, but he has minimal strikeout upside. Both guys are the definition of “meh,” but both can probably be used against the Marlins.
- David Peterson is probably a more talented pitcher than Canning, but he ends up a tier lower. The big reason? Instead of an early-week matchup vs. the Nationals, Peterson is set to square off with the Diamondbacks. That gives him a significantly tougher schedule. Some of Peterson’s advanced metrics also suggest looming regression, so using him vs. Arizona carries plenty of risk.
- Nick Martinez is another pitcher with questionable stuff, but he’s had elite command to start the year: his 110 Location+ ranks 12th among qualified starters. Don’t expect much in the way of strikeouts against the Nationals and Cardinals— both teams have a sub-20% strikeout rate vs. right-handers—but he shouldn’t get hurt too bad, either.
- It’s hard to understate how good Andrew Heaney has been this season. He’s come seemingly out of nowhere to post a 1.72 ERA and 2.73 xERA through his first five starts. He’s also racked up 31 strikeouts in 31.1 innings. He was absolutely brilliant this week vs. the Angels, pitching six scoreless innings with just one hit, zero walks, and nine strikeouts. It could all turn to dust in a second, especially in tough matchups vs. the Cubs and Padres, but Heaney at least warrants some consideration.
- Eduardo Rodriguez is another pitcher with a long track record who has been surprisingly effective of late. He boasts a 2.86 xERA, and he’s had at least nine strikeouts in two of his past four starts. That said, the matchups against the Mets and Phillies are difficult, so expectations should be low.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
