Welcome back to the 2025 two-start pitcher rankings!
Each week, I’ll break down all the projected two-start starters and group them into four tiers: Set and Forget, Probably Start, Questionable, and Avoid. Set-and-Forget starters are simply that; get them in your lineup and don’t think twice. The Most Likely tier includes players with a mix of skill and matchups that make them almost certainly two-start plays, but not without some elevated risk compared to the top tier. Questionable starters are those best suited for daily lineup leagues, where you can bench them against the tougher of their two opponents; they’re more situation-dependent in weekly leagues. Finally, we have the Avoid tier, which includes two start SPs who should remain on your bench or the wire.
I’ll also be highlighting one Two-Start Streamer of the Week. The criteria for a streamer will be a rostered rate under 50% in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. The Streamer of the Week will be highlighted in green in the tables.
This week’s group of two start pitchers features minimal sure things. Fortunately, there are a host of pitchers who should be viable for at least one start. Let’s dive in.
As a friendly reminder, the projected starters are just that, projections. They are subject to change.
Set-and-Forget
- Tarik Skubal is the lone Tier One starter in the Pitcher List Rankings, and he’s probably the best overall pitcher in baseball. It doesn’t matter who he’s facing or where he’s facing them; make sure he’s in your lineup.
- After Skubal, there’s a pretty big dropoff to the next group. Spencer Strider has the potential to be a Tier One pitcher when healthy, but we haven’t seen it much this season. He’s only made one start—five innings, five strikeouts, two earned runs—but he is tentatively expected to return next week. It’s still yet to be determined which game he’ll start in their series vs. the Nationals, but if he starts on Tuesday, it would set him up to potentially start again Sunday vs. the Padres. Ultimately, the upside with Strider is high enough to justify a start in any matchup.
- Robbie Ray has had an excellent start to his season with the Giants, and he draws two solid matchups next week. The first will come at home against the Royals, where Ray has a 2.32 ERA for the year. The second will be on the road vs. the Nationals, who have been merely average against southpaws. Fire him up with confidence.
- Dylan Cease has not pitched as well as expected this season, though his advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. He still has some of the best strikeout stuff in all of baseball, racking up 58 punchouts in 47 innings. His ERA should improve over a longer sample size, so there’s no reason to panic yet.
- Jesús Luzardo has finally delivered on the immense potential he showcased in his first taste of big league action. He’s put it all together with the Phillies, pitching to a 2.00 ERA and a 26.0% strikeout rate. Most importantly, he’s limited the number of free passes, which plagued him for so many years in Miami. He may not be quite this good all season, but there’s no reason to bench him against the Rockies or Athletics.
Most Likely
- Ryan Pepiot has yet to fully put it together this season, but it hasn’t been due to subpar stuff. His Stuff+ ranks 13th among qualified starters, so there are still reasons to be optimistic about his outlook. He draws two above-average matchups, with both the Astros and Blue Jays ranking in the bottom half of the league in wRC+ vs. right-handers.
- Is Chris Bassitt for real? That remains to be seen, but it’s hard to argue against his production. He’s pitched to a 3.16 ERA and 3.22 xERA, and he’s striking out more than a batter per inning. His command has been his best attribute this season, ranking in the 90th percentile for walk rate and 21st among qualified starters in Location+. The Padres aren’t the best matchup in the world, but the showdown with the Rays is good enough to make up for it.
- Kris Bubic came out of the gates red hot this season, and his ERA for the year is still below 2.00. Some of his advanced metrics suggest looming regression, but he still looks like a really strong pitcher under the hood. His batted-ball data is all above average, as are his strikeout and walk rates. Pitching in San Francisco against the Giants is always a plus, and the Giants and Twins both have top-six strikeout rates against southpaws this season.
- Bailey Ober got rocked in his first start of the season, but he’s settled into a nice groove since then. He’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts, and he’s been at one earned run or fewer in six of them. His strikeouts are down and his WHIP is up compared to last year, but this is still a pretty good pitcher.
- Framber Valdez continues to do Valdez things. He has one of the top ground ball rates in the league, and he’s on pace to allow less than a homer per nine innings for the sixth straight year. He’s also right around a strikeout per inning, and he’s put together back-to-back strong outings vs. the Royals and Brewers. The Rays are a slam-dunk matchup, while he’s got upside vs. the Mariners as well: they have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against southpaws.
- Kodai Senga is one of the toughest pitchers to rank at the moment. Based purely on his results, he deserves to be a tier higher. He has a sparkling 1.02 ERA for the year with solid strikeout metrics. However, his xERA is above 3.00, and he draws two brutal matchups at the Red Sox and vs. the Dodgers. You can make a case for sitting him in either spot, but the good ultimately outweighs the bad.
- The Phillies have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, and Cristopher Sánchez is one of the most undervalued starters. He’s been a stud this season, pitching to a 2.91 ERA and 3.11 xERA while posting elite strikeout and ground ball metrics. Pitching in Coors Field and the Athletics‘ minor-league stadium isn’t fun, but he’s simply too good to bench.
Questionable
- This is the largest tier of the week, with a bunch of pitchers who can conceivably be used for at least one start. That starts with Nick Lodolo. He’s a no-brainer option vs. the Pirates—they’re 25th in wRC+ vs. southpaws—but he’s much shakier against the Cubs. They have the top wRC+ in the league when facing a left-hander on the road, and the Great American Ball Park is one of the most homer-prone stadiums in baseball. Leave him on your bench for that one.
- Brandon Pfaadt is not my cup of tea. He doesn’t do anything particularly well. His xERA is over 5.00, he doesn’t have strong Stuff or Location+ marks, and he allows a ton of loud contact. Still, he has his believers. The matchup vs. the Dodgers is a hard pass, but he could potentially be used against the Cardinals.
- Tomoyuki Sugano has gotten decent results this season, pitching to a 3.08 ERA. That said, his xERA is closer to 4.50, and he provides virtually nothing from a strikeout standpoint. Perhaps he can find success versus the Brewers, but there’s no way you should use him in Fenway Park.
- Walker Buehler has been perfectly average in his first year with the Red Sox. He’s slightly underperformed his 3.87 xERA, and he’s basically league-average from a strikeout perspective. He could be useful in certain spots, but matchups vs. the Mets and Orioles probably don’t qualify.
- It’s a weak week for streamers from a two-start perspective, but Will Warren at least has some upside. The Rangers have been a subpar offensive team this season, while the Rockies are an absolute disaster. Facing them at Coors instead of Yankee Stadium hurts, but it’s not a complete dealbreaker. Warren ranks in the 80th percentile for strikeout rate, so he should be able to provide some Ks at a bare minimum.
- Gavin Williams is similar to Warren. His ERA and xERA aren’t quite as good, but he’s equally capable from a strikeout standpoint. His average fastball velocity puts him in the 90th percentile, and he’s struck out 51 batters in 42 innings. Neither of his matchups is ideal, but they’re not terrible, either.
- José Soriano is a ground ball maestro, posting a gaudy 62.8% mark so far this season. That’s helped him outperform his underlying metrics for the second consecutive season. He’s definitely usable vs. the Marlins, who are 24th in wRC+ vs. right-handers so far this season.
- Patrick Corbin in the year 2025?!? It’s possible. He’s been far better this year than he was in the past couple, and he draws an elite matchup vs. the White Sox to close out the week. Using him in that outing is not the craziest idea in the world.
- Edward Cabrera was once a highly-touted prospect, but he’s yet to put it together at the big-league level. He’s been even worse so far this season, with his ERA (5.52) and strikeout rate (19.8%) both down compared to 2024. Using him against the Cubs is a recipe for disaster, but he’s potentially viable vs. the Angels. They’re 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers, and they have the highest strikeout rate in the league in that split.
- Mitchell Parker has a respectable 3.90 xERA this season, and his 3.8% barrel rate puts him in the 90th percentile. That’s not much, but it’s something. He’s an interesting streamer candidate vs. the Giants, who have a massive 29.6% strikeout rate when facing a left-hander on the road.
- Ben Brown has been a decent source of strikeouts this season, and his xERA is roughly half a run lower than his actual mark. That makes him a positive regression candidate, and he’s a viable target vs. the Marlins.
- Nothing about Quinn Priester is particularly exciting, but the Pirates are the Pirates. They’re 25th in wRC+ and have the third-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season.
- Speaking of the Pirates, they’re expected to have multiple two-start pitchers: Mitch Keller and Bailey Falter. Keller has struggled this season but is coming off his best start of the year in his last outing, racking up eight strikeouts with two earned runs allowed in seven innings vs. the Mets. Falter has also pitched well recently, limiting the Braves and Padres to four total hits and one earned run in 13.0 innings. Both guys are far from must-starts, but they have some potential against an underwhelming Brewers lineup.
Avoid
- There’s very little to get excited about here. Maybe you can find a start for one or two of these guys if you’re desperate, but you’d have to squint really hard to find it. You’re best off just avoiding this tier entirely, with the risk far outweighing the upside.
