Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only, etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.
Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?
PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of the batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.
It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls; however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.
Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!
Today, we’re mixing it up and looking at relievers! I wanted to hold off on this for a while because it takes a set threshold of pitches for PLA to stabilize; however, as we are around the halfway point in the season, we now are getting a better sense of how players are doing.
Today’s pitchers are the top 5 setup guys for this season, per Rick Graham’s incredible top 100 relievers for holds list. Check this list out weekly, as it’s the best insight online into the world of fantasy baseball relievers.
Griffin Jax – 2.13 PLA
Bryan Abreu – 4.08 PLA
From a guy with a bunch of great pitches to a guy who throws two pitches only.
Well, actually, Bryan Abreu has thrown a few changeups and sinkers, but you can count the number of each thrown on one hand, so we treat him like a two-pitch guy.
Abreu’s four-seamer, which he uses 50% of the time, grades out as an average fastball. It has the velocity and attack angle to be great, though the vertical movement and extension are just hovering around average. This would probably be a higher graded pitch if it was located with intent more consistently, though it still gets plenty of whiffs due to its above-average stuff markers.
His slider is a pretty similar pitch in that it grades out at an average level, despite a high whiff rate. This can again be explained by the scatterplot that is all over the place, with plenty of non-competitive sliders being thrown by Abreu, which has led to a pretty high walk rate overall.
While 4.08 is a major drop from Abreu’s real-life ERA, it is important to note that relievers often take a big hit with PLA, due to the stat’s normalization and their inconsistent control. Abreu is a really valuable setup guy, who would probably be a closer on a lot of other teams.
Alex Vesia – 4.48 PLA
Remember what we said about Ryne Nelson a couple of weeks ago? Well think about that description, except with a reliever.
Vesia loves his four-seamer. He uses it almost 60% of the time, and it’s gotten the job done for him. He’s gotten strikes with it, as well as swings and misses. The secret sauce, similar to Nelson, is the vertical movement on the pitch. Vesia has the highest iVB on his four-seamer of any pitcher in the majors, and he locates it high in the zone to get whiffs galore. This pitch grades out exceptionally well by PLV, which makes lots of sense because there really isn’t a fastball like it in MLB.
Vesia rounds out his arsenal with a slider and changeup. The slider is a great pitch, as it grades out well above average and gets lots of whiffs. The changeup is used solely against righties and is definitely the weakest pitch from Vesia, though it still isn’t horrible or anything.
At the end of the day, it’s about the fastball with Vesia. PLA shows that this pitch is so good that you can rely on it to carry Vesia to consistent success for your teams.
Randy Rodríguez – 2.76 PLA
On the topic of fastballs that are one of one, how about Randy Rodríguez?
Rodriguez has an elite heater, which PLV grades out well. Not only is it a high velocity offering with solid extension, but it has great vertical movement and comes in at an exceptionally flat attack angle. If he locates the pitch up in the zone more in the future, he could be even more untouchable.
The heater isn’t the only pitch that Rodriguez has in spades. He throws a slider too, which is one of the best strike-earning breakers among top relievers, with its nasty horizontal movement that is impressive considering the high velocity of the pitch. It’s a slider with a high spinrate, and that leads to plenty of whiffs, especially when located low.
Rodriguez only has two pitches, but it’s about as good of a two-pitch combo you can get from a reliever. This is a guy who can help you in every category in holds leagues.
Adrian Morejon – 3.02 PLA
The NL West is definitely the division for holds guys, as the Padres’ bullpen alone has plenty of other options who could be here.
Adrian Morejon has been amazing this season, keeping the ERA and WHIP down to ridiculously low levels with his trusty sinker, a strike machine that he uses nearly 60% of the time.
Morejon’s slider is arguably his best pitch, as it has a really high whiff and CSW rating to go along with the highest PLV of any of his pitches.
Morejon completes his arsenal with a cutter and four-seamer, which neither grade out too well, which makes sense as he is a sinkerballer. He also has a changeup, though it rarely ever sees the light of day, though when it does, it gets lots of whiffs.
Morejon has been one of the best pitchers for holds this year, and PLA shows that his ERA will still be great even when some regression hits.
