We haven’t had any games this week, but we still have a big second-half/All-Star break update. Lucas Erceg hasn’t exactly looked better since returning from the IL a little over a month ago, with a 2.45 ERA (3.52 SIERA), 1.43 WHIP, and just a 9.7% K-BB rate. Pitching in Kansas City boosts his floor, but the ceiling may not be what we thought it could be. The Phillies desperately need bullpen help as Jordan Romano and Orion Kerkering continue to struggle with Romano holding a 3.97 SIERA (4.72 xFIP), 1.38 WHIP, and 18.5% K rate since the beginning of June, while Kerkering holds a 3.93 SIERA (4.78 xFIP), 1.36 WHIP, and 22% K rate. Nick Mears holds a 3.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his past 22.1 IP, but it comes with just a 23.89 SIERA (4.22 xFIP) and 19% K rate (25.2% CSW). His velocity has been getting better game by game, so perhaps we’ll see an uptick in Ks coming out of the break, but for now, I kind of like Grant Anderson better.
Speaking of Anderson, he has been solid all year, but over his last 14.2 IP, he’s allowed just one earned run and holds a 2.38 SIERA and 30% K rate. Lake Bachar is back up in the 40s again, and he holds an impressive 1.46 ERA (3.00 SIERA), 0.97 WHIP and 27% K rate over his past 24.2 IP. Shaun Armstrong holds a 1.88 ERA (2.91 SIERA) and 0.56 WHIP over his past 14.1 IP with a 34.2% CSW rate and has emerged as one of the Rangers’ most important bullpen arms. Jonathan Loáisiga has struggled this season, but a 3.09 xFIP and 30.3% CSW over his past 20.2 IP (plus a 115 Stuff+) has me optimistic in a big second half for him, especially considering the Yankees’ bullpen is missing a few big pieces at the moment. The Pirates could trade their best two relievers at the deadline, leaving Isaac Mattson as the potential next closer. He holds a 1.89 ERA (3.43 SIERA) and 0.89 WHIP over his 19 IP this season, as well as a 29% K rate.
Notes
- Reid Detmers has completely taken over the top set-up/next-in-line role for the Angels, as he has been their best reliever the past two months. Over his past 22 IP, Detmers holds a 1.23 ERA (2.47 SIERA), 1.05 WHIP, and 34.5% K rate (33% CSW) as his stuff has really been playing up out of the pen (116 Stuff+).
- There’s an argument that Bennett Sousa is still too low on the list, but I do worry all the lefties in that Astros bullpen will ultimately limit each other’s overall upside. Sousa holds a 1.82 ERA (2.11 SIERA), 0.77 WHIP, and 29% K-BB (19.8% SwStr) over his past 24.2 innings of work, but it comes with just four holds (three saves and two wins, though).
- Seranthony Domínguez has been dominant over the past two months and should get the Orioles a nice return this month, as the free agent-to-be is likely to be traded. Over his past 20.1 IP, Domínguez holds a 0.89 ERA (2.38 SIERA), 0.98 WHIP, and 38.8% K rate.
- Braydon Fisher has had a couple of hiccups lately heading into the break, and I’m not sure what the long-term outlook is here, but the breaking ball combo he features is legit. Fisher holds a 0.67 ERA (2.25 SIERA) and 0.78 WHIP over 27 innings as a reliever, with 33.7% K and 35.2% CSW rates.
- I actually considered bumping Jason Adam down even more, but he remains one of the better sources for holds despite his stuff taking a hit this season. Over his past 26.1 IP, Adam holds a 1.71 ERA, but that comes with a 4.05 SIERA (4.37 xFIP), a 1.48 WHIP, and just a 20.7% K rate.
- Aaron Ashby has spent most of the year on the IL, but since being activated in May and added to the Brewers bullpen, he’s been the team’s top left-handed reliever. He’s only thrown 21.2 innings this season but holds a 1.66 ERA (2.30 SIERA), 1.06 WHIP, and 30.2% K rate to this point as his stuff plays up in a relief role (121 Stuff+).
- Dennis Santana holds an impressive 1.59 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over his past 17 innings, but it comes with a 4.48 SIERA (4.65 xFIP) and just a 13.8% K rate (8% SwStr). The Pirates will be listening to offers on him and should be looking to sell high.
- Elvis Alvarado is still raw, but the stuff is electric, and the opportunity for him to see high-leverage innings should be there in an Athletics bullpen that has struggled all season long. The fastball sits at 98.5 MPH with 15.3″ of iHB (probably should be classified as a sinker?), and his upper 80s slider holds a 19.3% SwStr rate so far on the season.
