As we put the finishing touches on another fantasy baseball season, it’s time to look back on the year that was. In this piece, we’re focusing on breakout players, who, for this article’s purposes, will be defined as the players whose on-field production most outpaced their draft season ADP. We’ll look at their surprising success and see if any of it can be attributed to their swing decisions. For the inverse analysis, you can check out last week’s piece on busts here.
To analyze these players, we’ll be using PLV’s Decision Value. If you’re unfamiliar, PLV considers every single pitch’s placement, movement, and other metrics, and assigns it an overall grade. We can then use those grades to determine whether a hitter is making good swing choices and attacking pitches that he can turn into offensive production. We can also break this down further by looking at pitches both in (zDV) and out (oDV) of the strike zone. For a more in-depth explainer, check out the intro to this piece.
Like many metrics, Decision Value is graded on a scale where 100 represents the league average. Every 15 points above or below 100 is one standard deviation.
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George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays – 133 Decision Value
Springer’s long and prosperous career disqualifies him from the traditional definition of a fantasy breakout, but given his ADP being well past pick 200 this spring, he certainly meets our criteria. It hasn’t just been a good season for the veteran outfielder; it’s maybe been his best ever. He’s slashing .306/.395/.552 with 30 home runs and 16 steals. Springer’s 162 wRC+ and .403 wOBA are both career bests.
It’s not just the typical stats that we’re seeing career-best output from the 36-year-old, though. He’s also making the best swing decisions we’ve ever seen from him. We have PLV data for full seasons dating back to 2021, and in every year we have data for, Springer’s only improved. He started by posting a 110 Decision Value during his first campaign as a Blue Jay in 2021, and has moved that mark up annually to 115, 116, 125, and now 133, the second-highest mark in baseball among hitters who’ve seen at least 500 pitches.
Over those five years, Springer has become much more patient at the plate. He’s cut his swing rate from a peak just above 50% to 46% this year. Not coincidentally, he’s also improved his chase rate. Springer’s offering at just 20.4% of the pitches he sees that are out of the strike zone, a rate that falls in the 93rd percentile of hitters.
Springer has had similar success on pitches in the strike zone, particularly on those in the middle of the plate. His 27 Statcast Batting Run Value on pitches in the heart of the zone is nearly double his previous career high. Only Aaron Judge has a higher tally.
I’d love to say that Springer’s return to the ranks of elite hitters is largely due to his impeccable swing choices, but while it certainly plays a role, we can’t give full credit to his top-tier Decision Value. While PLV grades Springer’s swings as getting better and better, his offensive output had actually been following a standard aging curve. His bounce-back season will likely make him one of the toughest players to rank entering 2026 drafts.
Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks – 121 Decision Value
Talk about a breakout! Perdomo went undrafted in pretty much all but the very deepest of fantasy baseball formats, and all he’s done is put up a .291/.391/.461 slash line to go along with 19 home runs, 96 runs, 98 RBI, and 26 stolen bases. Perdomo had accumulated a total of 4.8 fWAR in his first 1,420 MLB plate appearances. This year alone, he’s tallied 6.9 fWAR, the fifth-most among all position players. That’s league-winning production that savvy managers picked up on their waiver wires.
PLV has always viewed Perdomo as a good swing decision maker. He posted Decision Values between 113 and 117 in each of his first three seasons, but has upped that number to 121 in his breakout campaign.
Pitchers have been attacking Perdomo more than ever this season, and he’s made them regret it. While Perdomo’s swing profile has remained nearly unchanged with his newfound success, he’s done one thing better this year: make contact. Both Perdomo’s 88.1% contact rate and 11.9% whiff rate are career bests.
Perdomo’s not just making more contact, it’s better quality too. His 6% barrel rate is the best we’ve seen from him, and that’s translating to an xBA and xwOBA that fall in the 87th and 83rd percentile, respectively. Before 2025, he’d never reached the 25th percentile in those two categories.
Swinging at better pitches is a good way to start making better contact more frequently, and that’s exactly what Perdomo has done. He’s been excellent on pitches out of the zone with a 122 oDV, while he’s hovered around league average on strikes with an unremarkable 98 zDV.
It’s been an odd season in Arizona, and whether they make the postseason field or not, Perdomo’s fourth-year breakout is one thing fans can cling to entering the offseason. I’m a little more inclined to put some trust into Perdomo’s new level of output, given that better swing choices accompany it, but even then, his increase in production has far outpaced the rate of swing choice improvement. There will almost surely be some regression in 2026. Just how much will be the topic of many offseason discussions.
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers – 108 Decision Value
I don’t think Turang threatening 20 homers was on anyone’s 2025 bingo card, yet here we are. The Brewers’ speedy second baseman is posting a career-best season at the plate, slashing .287/.357/.434 with 18 home runs and 24 stolen bases. The lack of steals may be disappointing for managers who were heavily relying on Turang to come close to repeating 2024’s 50-swipe campaign, but I think the power surge is more than enough to make up for it.
After hitting a combined 13 home runs in his first two big league seasons, it’s fair to question the legitimacy of Turang’s previously unseen skillset. From a swing choice angle, Turang’s been better than ever, but not significantly so. His 108 Decision Value is a new high-water mark, but he posted scores of 99 in 2024 and 105 in 2023, so he’s not necessarily in uncharted territory here.
Turang has taken a more patient approach to the plate in his third season. He’s cut his swing rate over three percentage points to 44.6%, a clip that falls in the bottom quartile of big league hitters. Not coincidentally, his chase rate has improved to 23.9%, and PLV loves his out-of-zone approach, awarding him a 109 oDV.
It’s always nice to see an improvement in swing decisions, but Turang hasn’t improved to a degree that suggests it’s a significant factor in his surge. Where he’s really excelled is in power metrics.
Turang is nowhere near the game’s big-time power hitters in these areas, but that’s totally fine for a player with his skillset. No one’s expecting a speedy, slick-fielding middle infielder to all of a sudden launch 30 home runs. Turang’s gone from a guy you thought could maybe max out at 10 homers to someone fantasy managers will be expecting to hit 15-20 in 2026. That’s an unexpected cherry on top of an already great player.
Hunter Goodman, Colorado Rockies – 75 Decision Value
In yet another rough season in Colorado, Goodman’s development has been a silver lining. He was one of the more surprising All-Star selections this summer, but his continued strong play in the second half should open eyes to his legitimately impressive campaign. He’s up to 30 home runs, 88 RBI, and a .279/.324/.521 slash line. His 118 wRC+ ranks fourth among qualified catchers.
Goodman’s success isn’t because of improved swing decisions; it’s actually despite them. The Rockies backstop posted Decision Values of 84 and 86 in his first two MLB seasons, and that number has sunk further in 2025. Goodman has just a 75 Decision Value this season, and it’s not hard to see why. He’s ultra-aggressive at the plate with a 94th percentile swing rate, and he’s not particularly selective, often attacking no matter a pitch’s location. While Goodman doesn’t do a great job of putting the bat on the ball – he only has a 10th percentile contact rate – he’s certainly doing enough damage when he does hit the ball to be a successful big league bat.
Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox – 88 Decision Value
Story’s another veteran bat that doesn’t meet the standard breakout criteria, given his status as one of baseball’s premier shortstops from 2016-2020. We’re a long way removed from Story’s peak on the Rockies, so to see him post a 25 HR/31 SB campaign has to be one of the more shocking developments of the 2025 season.
Health is, without a doubt, the biggest factor in Story’s return to fantasy stardom. He’s on track to reach a new career-high in plate appearances, and this season marks just the second time he’s eclipsed 400 trips to the plate since 2020.
Swing-wise, Story’s not enjoying the same success as he is in box scores. His 88 Decision Value is the lowest score PLV has given him, and it represents another step down from his peak of 105 in 2021. Story goes into attack mode more often than most hitters. His 54.3% swing rate falls in the 90th percentile. PLV likes that aggression on pitches in the zone (107 zDV), but severely knocks him for not curbing that aggression on balls (80 oDV).
Pete Crow-Armstong, Chicago Cubs – 65 Decision Value
Your opinion of PCA’s breakout season largely depends on what type of fantasy league you play in. If you’re in a roto format, you’ll happily take his 29 bombs and 35 stolen bases from a guy you took in the late rounds of your draft. On the other hand, weekly league players enjoyed an incredible first half (.847 OPS, 25 HR, 27 SB), but have suffered through a hard-to-roster second half (.606 OPS, 4 HR, 8 SB).
No matter your thoughts on the Cubs’ All-Star centerfielder, no one expected this kind of offensive showing from the 23-year-old sophomore, especially given his poor swing decisions. Like Goodman, PCA doesn’t have a swing profile that many hitters envy. He’s rather aggressive in the batter’s box, and his 41.6% chase rate is one of the worst in the sport. His 65 Decision Value isn’t much of a surprise – it’s the 10th-worst mark in baseball.
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads, @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)
