We are only part of the way through the college baseball season, and many high school seasons have not kicked off, but that doesn’t mean it is too early for a mock draft! There will be risers and fallers, especially from the prep ranks, but a lot of the college class is taking shape, especially at the top.
Way Too Early 2026 MLB Mock Draft
1. Chicago White Sox – Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
White Sox fans are more entertained by Cholowsky’s junior season at UCLA than they are with the current MLB team. He came into the year as the consensus number 1 overall player and has gradually solidified himself in that position. The batting average has slipped over the last few weeks since my prospect breakdown, but he is still hitting .344/.483/.828 with nine home runs on the young season. The most impressive part of his power output is that he is doing it with an 83% contact rate and an 18% chase rate. That combination of power with bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline will translate well to the next level.
2. Tampa Bay Rays – Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
If there is any player in a position to push Cholowsky for 1st overall, it is Lackey. Coming into the year, he was highly regarded as one of the best athletes in the whole draft who just happened to also be a plus defender behind the plate. He has shown the ability to play multiple positions in the field while also stealing 18 bases last year. The main concern was the power output. With elite bat-to-ball skills, Lackey hit .347/.421/.500 with only six home runs and only 25 walks in 60 games. That aggressive contact-first approach would always limit his potential, but in 2026, something has shifted.
Lackey already has exceeded his home run total from last season without any regression to his bat-to-ball skills. He has nine home runs through 20 games and is showing impressive plate discipline with 20 walks to 10 strikeouts while hitting .479. That success is backed up by the data, where he has an 88.3% contact rate, a 13% chase rate, and an impressive 93.7 mph exit velocity and 62.1% hard-hit rate. From a data and production standpoint, there is starting to be an argument that an elite athletic catcher with those batted-ball profiles is the better selection than Cholowsky. I don’t see it happening as of now, but if Lackey keeps it up, it will shock me to see him get past 2nd overall.
3. Minnesota Twins – Jackson Flora, RHP, UCSB
I wrote about Jackson Flora a couple of weeks back and gradually fell in love with him more and more as I wrote. Not only does the fastball sit in the upper 90s with above-average movement profiles, but he also combines that with a change-up he just added this offseason with a 52% whiff rate. Those two pitches alone could make him a valuable MLB pitcher, but combine that with an above-average slider and plus command, and you have the best pitching prospect in the class. So far this season, he has been dominant with a 1.15 ERA and 39 strikeouts with only eight walks in 31 IP. It will be hard for the Twins to pass up on the opportunity to grab the top pitcher at #3.
4. San Francisco Giants – AJ Gracia, OF, Virginia
The Giants have spent many straight offseasons trying to add impact bats and have largely swung and missed. I anticipate them using their 4th overall selection on finding an impact bat, and Gracia can be just that.
Coming into the season, Gracia was largely regarded as a “data darling,” but for some reason, the production never matched the batted-ball profiles. So far this year, the production has matched the batted-ball profiles. He is currently hitting .377/.532/.783 with eight home runs and 19 walks to just 12 strikeouts. The data backs that up even more with an absurd 87.3% contact rate and a 15.5% chase rate. Now that the power is catching up to the bat-to-ball and plate discipline skills, the Giants should be ecstatic to get this talent at 4th overall.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates – Chris Hacopian, 3B, Texas A&M
If any of the top teams believe Hacopian can stick at SS, he might not fall to 5th overall. The bat is arguably the best in the country, and this year will be a great opportunity to showcase it against the SEC. He missed some time early in the 2026 season but has come out of the gates hot for the Aggies. He is currently hitting .500/.609/.889 while making contact with 82.9% of the pitches he is seeing and only chasing at 12.1%. Combine that with a 96.7 mph average exit velocity and a 62.5% hard-hit rate, and he has all the makings of an elite hitter.
Since the sample is so small in 2026, I feel like it’s important to highlight that those numbers are similar to his 2025 data. In 2025, he averaged 93.2 mph exit velocity with a 56.8% hard-hit rate. Combine that impact with an 84.5% contact rate and a 17.7% chase rate, and you can see a theme with Hacopian. With Skenes’ free agency clock ticking down fast, the Pirates need an MLB-ready impact bat, and Hacopian can be that.
6. Kansas City Royals – Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep (FL)
7. Baltimore Orioles – Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
8. Athletics – Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian (TX)
9. Atlanta Braves – Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
10. Colorado Rockies – Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
When looking at the next five, you have the top two prep players in Jacob Lombard and Grady Emerson. For my money’s worth, both are currently better prospects than the 2025 1st overall selection, Eli Willits, so the Royals and Athletics should be thrilled to get two elite athletes, and both fit the moulds of players they have had success developing in recent years.
The Orioles have gone more high ceiling in the last 2 drafts with the selections of Vance Honeycutt and Wehiwa Aloy, but I see them getting back to their roots in this draft. Burress has a solid combination of above-average power (94.2 mph exit velocity), contact skills (76.4% contact rate), and plate discipline (20.7% chase rate). While the chase and contact skills have regressed so far in 2026 compared to 2025, they are still respectable, and I anticipate improvement before the season’s end.
We also see the next tier of pitchers taken. Coming into the year, Flukey was the top pitcher, but with a recent injury, I anticipate Flora to move ahead just from availability. Flukey feels like a Braves pitcher with a 70-grade fastball from a right-handed frame. As for Peterson, he has been underdeveloped at Florida, but the stuff has the capability to survive in Coors Field. The Rockies have targeted high IVB fastballs, and Peterson has one of the best in the class. The bigger question is, can they develop him? History says no, but time will tell.
11. Washington Nationals – Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi St.
12. Los Angeles Angels – Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
13. St. Louis Cardinals – Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
14. Miami Marlins – Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas (FL)
15. Arizona Diamondbacks – Lucas Moore, OF, Louisville
The Nationals were the hardest team to select for because we do not know what direction the new regime will go in. From the decisions they have made, it feels like they are going to invest heavily in player development, so I went with a player who is polished but still has potential to tap into. In 2026, he showed big-time power with a 94.5 average exit velocity, but an aggressive approach with a 26.1% chase rate. High-chase power hitters struggle in pro ball, but the tools are there.
Next, we have two shortstops that couldn’t be more opposite. The Angels select the high-floor prospect and will probably put him on the MLB roster two weeks after signing. Bell is a solid defender who has above-average contact skills but has not tapped into the raw power consistently yet in-game. Lebron is the complete opposite. He has shown All-Star-level moments, but is what I call a “schoolyard bully,” who beats up on non-conference competition while struggling in SEC play. Many will have Lebron in the Top 5, but I need to see him maintain production against SEC competition.
Lastly, we have two players who just seem like fits for the Marlins and the Diamondbacks. The Marlins selecting a high-ceiling local lefty just feels like an annual tradition. Rojas has a fastball that reaches triple digits, and he dominates when in the zone. As is an annual tradition, the D-backs select a left-handed hitter with elite bat-to-ball skills who can boogey. The only difference is Moore isn’t 5’9″, so there is more power to dream on than in past drafts. Moore has already stolen 15 bases in 19 games this season.
16. Texas Rangers – Sawyer Strosnider, OF, TCU
17. Houston Astros – Caden Sorrell, OF, Texas A&M
18. Cincinnati Reds – Joey Volchko, RHP, Georgia
19. Cleveland Guardians – Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas
20. Boston Red Sox – Gabe Gaeckle, RHP, Arkansas
The Rangers have been one of the harder orgs to nail down in terms of draft style, so I went with a high-ceiling prospect in their backyard. Strosnider has both contact and chase concerns, but the power is big time. He is averaging 94.7 mph exit velocity with a 61.4% hard-hit rate. He is a draft-eligible sophomore, so there is still time to develop even in professional baseball. As we head south, both to College Station and Houston, Caden Sorrell is more of the same as Strosnider. The power is evident with 9 home runs through 17 games to start the season and a 95 mph exit velocity, but that comes with a 66.9% contact rate and a 21.3% chase rate. Those numbers are pre-SEC play. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get worse.
The next three are where it gets fun. I could see it going in any order, but all three organizations are unbelievable at identifying and developing pitchers. Volchko is under the watch of former MLB pitching coach Wes Johnson and has seen a major improvement in production. The Reds have shown an affinity for college righties, and Volchko’s premium stuff could be the next in a long line of draft selections. Dietz is the newcomer, which is why he is perfect for the Guardians. They love to zig while others zag and have no problem with a small sample size. In just 25.1 college IP (23.2 of them this season), Dietz has shown impressive whiff rates and strike-throwing ability. He has struck out 46 hitters and walked only 10. A full healthy season will have him in the 1st round, and the Guardians would maximize his potential.
Lastly, we have fellow Razorback Gabe Gaeckle. The Red Sox in recent years have been nails in developing pitchers, and Gaeckle could fit their mould. His best pitch is a premium fastball that has generated a 31.9% whiff rate (25% is elite for FB). He has an unconventional -3.86 VAA, which has lowered since last year and is allowing him to dominate hitters. There are some strike concerns, but the fastball is outlier enough that I wouldn’t be surprised if many orgs have him in the Top 10, no matter how he performs this season.
21. San Diego Padres – Tyler Spangler, SS, De La Salle (CA)
22. Detroit Tigers – Carson Bolemon, LHP, Southside Christian (SC)
23. Chicago Cubs – Eric Becker, SS, Virginia
24. Seattle Mariners – Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
25. Milwaukee Brewers – Brady Ballinger, 1B, Kansas
This section was the most fun because it is all about fit. The Padres and Tigers are always the last teams I fill out in any mock draft because you can just find the highest-ceiling prep player and fill it in. Typically, in recent years, I would go with a position player for the Tigers and a pitcher for the Padres, but I decided to flip them for this season because they eventually have to, right? Spangler is one of the most well-rounded prospects in the draft with impressive bat-to-ball skills and power to dream on. Bolemon is a physical lefty who has four-plus offerings and above-average command. Had this been a 2010 draft, he probably would have never gotten past 5th overall.
The Cubs, Mariners, and Brewers also have a type. The Cubs love prospects with high contact rates and high exit velocity data and don’t really care about in-game power output or chase rates. This was the mould of Matt Shaw and Cam Smith, and Becker is similar, with a 93 mph exit velocity, an 81.2% contact rate, and a 30.2% chase rate. He also has only hit 2 home runs while featuring those batted-ball metrics.
Kuhns is one of the biggest risers in the class and is the perfect Mariner. He is a low-slot, high-IVB fastball guy, and the pitch has been dominant this year with a 36.2% whiff rate. The Mariners will salivate to add another of those pitchers to their system. Lastly, rounding out the first round, we have Ballinger going to the Brewers. Ballinger came into the season as one of my favorite hitters in the draft. It’s elite power with an elite approach, and in 2025, he showed above-average contact rates with an 80% contact rate. The contact rate has regressed slightly to 75%, but that comes with a 93.4 mph exit velocity and a 20.1% chase rate. If the contact rate returns to 80%, Ballinger’s profile is very similar to Kurtz, and the Brewers have shown an affinity for CIF types with that profile with their recent selections of Andrew Fischer and Blake Burke.
