There’s nothing like playoff baseball… unless you’re one of the four freshly eliminated teams from the field.
The coming weeks will be a time of mourning for those dearly departed from the diamond and their fans. While others celebrate and continue to win, they’ll commiserate and wonder about the what-ifs. They’ll watch as their mind stops entertaining lineup matches and bullpen splits and start obsessing over the rumor mill.
But before any rumors can take root, let’s examine where the National League losers are. Where are the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres headed? Who might they lose, who should they keep, and what thoughts can distract them from the playoff baseball they’ve suddenly been deprived of?
This Philadelphia core made its bones despite the doubts. They upstaged a top-seeded Atlanta team twice — once in 2022 and again in 2023 — en route to a World Series and NLCS. The Fightin’ Phils were feisty, scrappy, underdogs awash in the continual flow of champagne that stained Garrett Stubbs’ Phillies-themed overalls.
But now, Philadelphia finds the shoe and the overalls on the other foot. After a 95-win season, the Phillies were a favorite for a change. Their reward? A 3-1 series loss in the NLDS to a sixth-seeded New York Mets who’ve manifested McDonald’s-powered magic.
It’s a cruel, unexpected outcome for Philadelphia. This was supposed to be the season where they were the bride, not the bridesmaid. Yet here they stand, again holding the bouquet as another walks down the aisle. The City of Brotherly Love is left in the rearview of a limousine with the word “WINNER” painted along the side.
Pain aside, things in Philadelphia aren’t as disastrous as its local talk radio makes it appear. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos are all returning to next year’s team. And they’re not alone. Cristopher Sánchez broke out, and Alec Bohm is coming off a career year, as is Ranger Suárez. This Phillies core isn’t just supremely talented. It’ll stay together for at least all of next season.
There’s also little room to doubt those in charge. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski steered the team to three straight playoff appearances, a first for the franchise since its 2007 to 2011 playoff streak. He’s rebuilt a roster from nothing, allured stars to the city, and maximized the organization’s window.
Everything is there for Philadelphia to succeed in the near and far… Everything except for a few issues.
One of the largest hurdles for Philly is its bullpen. In years past, this was an issue due to a lack of horses in the barn. With high-end relievers like Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman set to hit free agency, Philly’s problem is now keeping its thoroughbreds in the stable.
While Hoffman had a troubled playoff run, posting a 40.50 ERA, keeping him would be a boon for Philly’s bullpen. Over his two seasons in the red pinstripes, Hoffman has a 2.28 ERA across 122 games. He also boasts an 184 ERA+, 2.54 FIP, 0.944 WHIP, 158 strikeouts, and 11 saves.
Those numbers have Hoffman fifth in fWAR among all relievers over the last two seasons. He’s also sixth in FIP, eighth in ERA and FIP, and 11th in strikeout rate. Hoffman is a stud of a reliever and has been nails for the Phillies no matter the metric. Losing him would be a blow the team cannot afford, given their aspirations.
Keeping Estevez isn’t as much of a priority despite his preprimary numbers. While the 31-year-old’s been excellent this season, touting a 2.45 ERA, 171 ERA+, and a career-best 0.909 WHIP, he hasn’t been as dominant as he was with the Angels.
Since debuting with Philly on July 30, Estevez is fourth among its relievers in ERA and WHIP, sixth in FIP, and seventh in xFIP and strikeouts-per-nine-innings. Other worrisome numbers appear with a closer look. For instance, Estevez saw his strikeout rate drop from 25.8% with Los Angeles to 20.5% with Philadelphia. Likewise, his 4.0% walk rate in the City of Angels is double that of his 8.0% mark in the City of Brotherly Love. He just hasn’t been nearly as effective. Nor did he, like Hoffman, impress in the playoffs.
Yet losing Estevez would still be a loss. He’s first among all Phillies relievers in saves since arriving, third in left-on-base rate, and third in BABIP. The Phillies should do what they can to keep both pitchers around. The last thing they need is a repeat of their 2022 bullpen, which ranked 23rd in baseball during the regular season.
Should they fail to retain one, the other, or both, options are available to Dombrowski. Kenley Jansen has long been linked to the team, while Aroldis Chapman, Chris Martin, and Blake Treinen will also be on the market.
Bullpen aside, Dombrowski has to find a fifth starter this offseason. He may not have to search far, thanks to Andrew Painter.
The 21-year-old former first-rounder has earned his draft pedigree and then some. In 2022, Painter worked his way across three leagues and stunned at each level. He ended his season with a 1.56 ERA and a 0.886 WHIP while striking out 155 batters across 22 starts. More impressive, Painter achieved all this as a 19-year-old and made it to Double-A by season’s end. The Phillies deservedly named him their Minor League Player of the Year for his efforts.
The club also invited the youngster to spring training that season. On March 10, however, Painter was sidelined for the next four weeks due to a sprained elbow. That injury eventually led to Tommy John surgery on July 25, costing both Painter his season and his chance of cracking the majors.
Painter hasn’t pitched since and was only recently approved to join the Arizona Fall League this month. When he takes the mound, it’ll be his first action since spring training a year and a half ago.
While Painter remains an unproven commodity, there’s reason to believe the Phillies will give the pitcher a chance to crack the 2024 Opening Day roster. That move feels especially decided due to Taijuan Walker’s 2024 performance. The right-hander was an abject disaster in 2024. The veteran struggled so harshly that Philadelphia tried him as a starter and a reliever to salvage something from him.
Neither role moved the needle. As a starter, Walker posted a 7.18 ERA, 1.689 WHIP, and a 3-7 record in 15 starts. That 7.18 ERA was the worst in baseball among all those that have at least 70 innings pitched. Walker pitched to a similarly subpar score as a reliever, carrying a 6.52 ERA and 1.966 WHIP in just four appearances.
Even with the caveat that Walked faced numerous injuries in 2024, it’s impossible not to admit he was an abject disaster. What’s worse, however, is the hurler is under contract until 2027. How the Phillies will fix or free themselves of Walker is unclear. But, the situation isn’t sustainable, leaving room for Painter or another pitcher to take the fifth spot in 2025’s rotation.
Few other areas of Philadelphia’s roster feel as challenged. Yet that’s not to suggest the club is perfect. An upgrade could be beneficial in center field, for starters. Johan Rojas received most of the playing time and failed to impress. The outfielder hit .243/.279/.322 with three home runs, 32 RBI, and a .601 OPS in 120 games this season. Rojas also failed to contribute during the postseason, going 1-5 in three games.
Moving Brandon Marsh to center field full-time might alleviate Rojas’ offensive limitations. Likewise, increased playing time for outfielder Weston Wilson might provide a boost. The 29-year-old hit .284/.347/.489 with three homers, 10 RBI, and a .836 OPS in 40 games played in 2024. He might provide the extra offensive boost the team needs.
Past that, there’s not much the Phillies should or can do to their roster. Their playoff exit isn’t emblematic of a porous roster. It symbolizes how hard it is to win it all. They were the hot, young team in 2021 and came up short against the Astros. Then, in 2023 with a 3-2 series lead against the Diamondbacks in the NLCS, Nola allowed four runs and didn’t survive the fifth. The D-Backs would then respond again in Game 7, win, and punch their ticket to the World Series. The Phillies aren’t far away. They’re just consistently on the outside looking in.
Maybe Philadelphia needs new doubts they can rage against to take that next step. If that’s the case, the team is in luck. Their fans and talk radio provide plenty.
The San Diego Padres experienced the highest highs and the lowest lows only baseball can bring over 72 hours.
On Tuesday night, the club secured a victory to hand them a 2-1 series advantage over the rivaled Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS. They’d outscored the Dodgers 16-7 over games two and three and looked impervious. Fans and players alike felt on the cusp of something great. Special. All of that excitement was lost by Friday night. The Friars’ offense fizzled out, went scoreless in 24 consecutive innings, lost games four and five to the Dodgers, the series, and now have to wait until spring to step foot on the diamond again.
The Padres woke up Saturday morning knowing they were just one win away. It was in the palm of their hands. Now, it’s scattered in the wind while a long, brutal winter of hypotheticals awaits. This winter won’t just contain what-ifs for the Padres or their front office. It’ll bring questions that need answering and futures that need deciding.
No future is as up-in-the-air as that of super utilityman Jurickson Profar. The 31-year-old is coming off an oddly-timed breakout season. He boasted career-bests in home runs, RBI, OBP, OPS, wRC+, total bases, and runs scored while playing a new high of 158 games. It was a sensational 2024.
Profar hasn’t just been great within the context of his career, however. His 4.3 fWAR by season’s end is third on the team, ahead of potential Hall of Famers Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr./strong>. Within the NL, Profar ranks 13th in fWAR, sixth in wRC+, and 11th in OPS. He’s arguably been a top-ten player in the NL this season. Appreciation for his accomplishments only grows when considering that before 2024, Profar had a .706 OPS in his career. The veteran grew wings that flew him from the realm of average to the land of superstardom.
But how legitimate is Profar’s metamorphosis? And how much will it cost to keep him in San Diego’s brown and gold? Answering the first question comes with difficulties. Players can rewrite their story in baseball with enough time and care. Yet completely remaking oneself, in Profar’s case, at 31 years old after 11 seasons is rare.
What gives hope to Profar’s turnaround is his advanced numbers. Some players who breakout are relying on the art of luck. That is not entirely the case here. Profar’s XBA is .280, his XSLG .448, and his XWOBA is .364. The first is in the top nine percent and gives credence to his renewed contact abilities. The second shows he should be hitting the ball as hard as he is. Like the first, the third puts Profar in the top eight percent of all hitters. In other words, there’s no reason to believe this is a fluke.
Whether or not the Padres can pay the player Profar’s become is a different issue. Given his late-career breakout and the chance this is the veteran’s only chance at a payday, it’s unlikely he’ll seek a team-friendly contract. Nor should he. Yet that’s the worst possible news for the Padres.
The team’s payroll is already challenged by the contracts of Machado, Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and even Jake Cronenworth. And that’s before paying Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Jason Adam what they’re owed in their final year of arbitration. The Padres could also pick up a mutual option on All-Star Ha-Seong Kim’s contract this offseason to further complicate things.
It’s possible, if not likely, that the Padres will be Profar-less in 2025.
The good news is that besides Profar there are very few players the Padres will be without. Their only other marquee position player hitting free agency is catcher Kyle Higashioka. Though Higashioka is enjoying a career year, belting 17 homers and 45 RBI while posting a .739 OPS, he’ll also be a 34-year-old free agent. The catcher is already splitting time with Luis Campusano to boot. Losing Higashioka won’t shatter San Diego.
Even losing All-Star reliever Tanner Scott won’t kill San Diego.
That statement sounds preposterous. Scott has a 1.75 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP. He’s struck out 84 and registered 22 saves in his 72 games. Opposing offenses are hitting just .179/.285/.243 against him with a stunning .528 OPS. Among all relievers, Scott ranks sixth in ERA and 16th in batting average against. Being without him in 2025 should be a blow to any bullpen.
Yet other numbers indicate Scott isn’t as perfect as he seems. Since being traded to San Diego from Miami, Scott has a 2.73 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, and 8.9 hits-per-nine-innings. His 74.4 left-on-base rate is 102nd in all of baseball, and his .252 batting average against is 134th. Even some of Scott’s numbers in Miami call for renewed scrutiny. During his time in South Beach, Scott’s 1.21 ERA ranked fourth among all closers. His 3.21 FIP ranked 61st, however.
Factor in Scott’s performance with San Diego’s plethora of other strong relievers — Jason Adam, Bryan Hoeing, Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, and Yuki Matsui — and the team can survive without Scott.
The team’s rotation is the only area needing support. This counts double after the announcement that Musgrove will miss all of 2025 due to late-season Tommy John surgery. Musgrove hasn’t been perfect, nor has he been healthy these last two seasons. But at Musgrove’s worst, he’s an above-average arm. At his best, he’s one of the best in the NL. His loss will be a hard one to mitigate.
Re-signing starter Martín Pérez, who’s much-improved since coming to San Diego via trade, might be a cost-effective solution. The southpaw racked up a 3.46 ERA with a 1.212 WHIP in his 10 starts with San Diego. Even if the team would welcome him back in 2025, retaining Pérez can’t be the one move San Diego makes.
As stellar as he’s been, Darvish hasn’t started 30 games in two seasons. He’s also just turned 38. Randy Vasquez made 20 starts for the team. In them, he recorded a 4.87 ERA with a 1.510 WHIP and a 4.70 FIP. Another new arm, Matt Waldron, has his warts, posting a 4.91 ERA, 1.261 WHIP, and a 4.26 FIP. With or without Musgrove, the Padres would’ve needed another arm in 2025. With their cash constraints finding one of his caliber will be a challenge.
Other than these issues, San Diego isn’t doomed. This core works. Tatis Jr. is back to his All-Star form. If anything, he’s better. In the team’s two playoff series, the superstar hit .423/.500/.950 with a jaw-dropping, seemingly impossible 1.500 OPS. Tatis still has a superb Machado to try and match him, a now three-time batting champion in Arraez, a staff composed of Cease, King, and Darvish, and a 10,000-megawatt star in Jackson Merrill.
San Diego’s President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller loves making big moves. But Preller shouldn’t be held prisoner by those 72 hours separating him from hope and defeat. This Padres team is good. Very good. And for once, they may not need another headline-grabbing move to get better.
Byron Buxton to the Tigers confirmed.