Dynasty league formats always add a bit of extra planning. Weighing the age and production of players is something that requires a perfect mix. If a team is competing or rebuilding, the strategy varies. But, if your dynasty league is just starting, there are multiple ways to go. Here are some key matchups between prospects and younger players and aging veterans for dynasty players.
CJ Abrams vs Trea Turner:
Speed and power are the calling cards for both Trea Turner and CJ Abrams. Both are consistently in the 20-20+ range for home runs and steals, so the other categories are the game-changers here. Age plays a large factor in this matchup as well. Abrams is newly 24, and Turner will be 32 halfway into 2025. Both players hit at the top of their lineups, with Turner in a much more proven lineup. While it’s likely neither put up high RBI totals, they both have the chance at 100+ runs a year. This matchup comes down to the hit tool and walk rate. Turner is a much better hitter than Abrams, but neither walks at a particularly high rate. Trea Turner is signed through 2033, but the speed is likely to be dialed back as he gets older. For the dynasty format, Abrams is the play if your team isn’t ready to compete. That being said, for the immediate future, Turner should outproduce Abrams for the next one to three seasons depending on games played.
Breaking it down by each category, Turner leads by a decent margin in average, on-base percentage, and run potential. Both Turner and Abrams should be within 10-15 RBI of each other again given games played. Abrams has the advantage in steals as we saw him put up 31 in a “down year”. Meanwhile, Turner managed to steal less than 20 bases for the first time in a full season. Turner may not be stealing 30+ anymore, but he should be around 25-30 in the 2025 season. Both hitters are 20+ home run hitters and should be within 5-7 home runs of each other each season. I’m giving Turner the win here with average, on-base percentage and runs. Speed is trending in the direction of Abrams and power might be after 2025 or 2026. For now, home runs and RBI are both in the same ballpark. Abrams is the longer player in dynasty formats but Turner is still the short-term option here.
Winner: Trea Turner
A 2024 top-10 MLB Draft pick versus a six-year pro coming off his first poor season makes for a fun debate. Wetherholt was talked about as the sure-thing first overall pick prior to the 2024 college baseball season. After a slow start and some injuries, Wetherholt quickly put his name back in contention for the top pick. Drafted seventh overall by the Cardinals, Wetherholt should move quickly to Double-A in 2025 and have an outside shot at a September call-up. He has a bit of every tool in his offensive game. The hit tool is the calling card, as is the patient approach that should lead to a ~.350+ OBP. The profile of the bat can slot him in any of the first three spots of a lineup, but most likely is a two-hole hitter. The contact rate allows him to cut down on the strikeout percentage and patience sees him draw more walks. Speed is the next best tool currently and should translate to 20+ steals per season. The power could be the lowest of his tools, but still should be above 15 home runs per season. If it all comes together, Wetherholt should easily be a .290 hitter with 20 home runs and 20-25 stolen bases per season.
Bo Bichette has been a model of consistency from his debut in 2019 to his 2023 season. Bichette has a plus-hit tool, never hitting below .290 prior to 2024. Tagging along on the hit tool is the above-average power that has seen him hit 20+ home runs from 2021-2023. The speed hasn’t translated to stolen bases outside of 2021, and the walk rate leaves much to be desired. Hitting at the top of the lineup, Bichette is able to put up high run totals. The RBI totals have always been above average as well given that he hits in the two-hole. 2024 was a big concern for Bichette as he played just 81 games and hit .225, with four home runs and five steals. Bichette will be 27 years old for the entire 2025 season, but the concerns are there. The speed has been in decline and the injured/poor performance in 2024 raises some questions. Bichette will look to get back to his near .300 average with 20+ home runs in 2025. This battle is close, but the slight advantage still goes to Bichette here.
Winner: Bo Bichette
Jordan Lawlar vs Ezequiel Tovar:
Jordan Lawlar seems to be a more underrated prospect in the last year due to his lack of games played. Still just 22 years old, Lawlar had a short MLB debut at the end of 2022. The Diamondbacks didn’t commit Lawlar to a starting role due to a playoff push and Geraldo Perdomo playing well. Heading into 2025, that should change. Perdomo didn’t repeat his 2023 success in 2024 and Lawlar has an immensely higher upside. With plus tools across the board, Lawlar often received comparisons to now superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. over his 2022 and 2023 MiLB seasons of 100 and 105 games, where he went 16 HR/39 SB and 20 HR/36 SB, respectively. Speed is the best tool for Lawlar and he should have no issue stealing 30 bags a year. The rest of the game is coming together but the power numbers are sure to be 20+ home runs. The hit tool is what will determine the outcome for Lawlar, but given starter playing time, he could see a three-year incline like Witt. Lawlar is and has been my number one overall prospect given all the raw talent. Even if the hit tool maxes the average at .270, Lawlar is a top shortstop option. 20+ home runs, 30+ stolen bases, and given his spot in the order he could be a plus option for RBI and runs. The Diamondbacks should be slotting Lawlar in as the everyday shortstop in 2025.
Ezequiel Tovar had a tremendous 2024 season in just his second full MLB season. 157 games played, with a 3.7 WAR at 23 years old is tremendous. Currently, his game translates more toward real baseball than fantasy, but Tovar still has value. Tovar hit 26 home runs in 2024, which was a large jump from 15 in 2023. Most impressive was that Tovar led the NL in doubles with 45. The downside is the lack of approach and contact rate. Tovar struck out 200 times and walked just 23 total times in 157 games. Both of those numbers are wildly one-sided and need improvement to increase value. Currently, Tovar is a three-category player due to volume. The home run, run, and RBI totals are all at respectable levels but he did play 157 games. With a sub-.300 OBP and a non-threat on the base paths, Tovar needs to improve the approach. Given the lack of improvement in patient approach from 2023 to 2024, Tovar won’t win this matchup.
Winner: Jordan Lawlar
One of the most anticipated MLB debuts to likely come early in 2025 is Marcelo Mayer. Leading the charge of the top prospects in Boston, Mayer has a chance to be the everyday shortstop by July at the latest. 2023 was a down year for Mayer as he hit just .236 between High-A and his first action at Double-A. With 26, 91, 78, and 77 games played in his first 4 MiLB seasons, Mayer hasn’t seen eye-popping totals. The home runs totals have maxed out at 13 in both 2022 and 2023 and the stolen bases at 17 in 2022. Mayer will be 22 years old for all of 2025 when he likely gets his first crack as the future Red Sox shortstop. Drafted two picks before Jordan Lawlar, Mayer doesn’t have the same athleticism as Lawlar. The hit tool and patient approach are what have allowed Mayer to potentially debut a few months after turning 22. He turned both of those numbers around in 2024 at Double-A, hitting .307 with a .370 OBP. With eight home runs and 13 steals in 77 games, Mayer was on pace for a 20-20 plus year again. An injury cut his time short but Mayer looks to be above average in all five categories. As a potential .280+ hitter, with a .350+ OBP, 20-20+ potential is very realistic for Mayer. Hitting either in front of or behind both Rafael Devers and Triston Casas gives Mayer a great opportunity to excel in RBI or run potential.
Quite possibly the biggest breakout player in 2024 was Zach Neto. Neto tallied 23 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 155 games. The 2024 breakout was similar to Tovar as he also doesn’t hit for a high average or walk much. 30 stolen bases is a high mark for a young shortstop who can also hit 20+ home runs. Given the poor Angels lineup, Neto didn’t excel in either RBI or run totals. An above-average player in two categories, Neto still puts up solid OBP, RBI, and run totals to provide plenty of value. There has been some injury history and Neto is going to miss the start of 2025 with a shoulder injury. A huge jump from his debut in 2022, Neto has proved he’s a shortstop the Angels can count on. It’s a close matchup, but Mayer has too much potential to overlook here.
Winner: Marcelo Mayer
Featured image by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
Minor comment on Neto write-up:
Neto batted in the lower third of order for 75%+ of the year. His RBI/R totals were artificially suppressed by coach’s inexplicable lineup decisions for most the year.