In 2024’s version of this article, we pointed out that ESPN generally favors a simpler, points-based set of rules. While the platform still allows Categories games, a few years ago they made their points system the ‘default’—and while they provide rankings for both, their ‘Live Draft Trends‘ page just includes a single ADP. This can skew things more than a little, so there’s loads of value all over the draft board.
Note that if you are playing an ESPN Rotisserie you are better off consulting this rankings page for a better representation of your draft, and not the ADP.
All that said, let’s get down to it.
A quick primer on ESPN scoring
Whether you’re using custom scoring or ESPN’s default system, head over to this little dissertation on creating your own rankings and points projections. Then you can compare your numbers to ESPN’s and find the real value. For this article, though, we’ll do some of the hard work for you and identify draft targets up and down the board.
Compared to other scoring systems, here’s what to know about ESPN:
- Hitter strikeouts are a hefty penalty at -1 point each
- Pitcher walks and hits allowed can also cost you, both at -1 point (same with runs allowed)
- Steals don’t mean a whole lot, as they net you just 1 point each
- Walks are just as good as steals, though, also worth 1 point
- Saves net you 2 points just as Wins do, but your closers won’t rack up other points
So what kind of players should you target? For hitters, you want the contact-first guys who can get you extra bases – after all, doubles will get you 2 points, triples 3, and home runs are worth 4. As for pitchers, you want starters who can rack up K’s, or at least maintain a decent WHIP.
All that said, when ESPN’s system puts a hitter like Steven Kwan in the top 50, sometimes the ADP can over-correct.
Elly De La Cruz – ESPN ADP 34.6, NFBC ADP 4.4
Elly gets a massive knock from ESPN due to his MLB-leading 218 K’s last year, which would bury any other points-league hitter past an ownable threshold. But he still put up 390 points last season, good for sixth among shortstops.
Still, you can’t be too high on Elly unless you think his approach will change. And first, you have to note there’s some progress being made—as a rookie in 2023, De La Cruz struck out 33.7% of the time. Last year, it improved to 31.3%.
So how’s he looking this Spring?
Well, reports came out in February that he tweaked his stance to be more open, balanced, and upright. And so far in Spring Training he only has seven K’s in 35 plate appearances (compare that to last year’s Cactus League line of 21 K’s in 58 PA’s). Oh, and he has six XBHs (including three home runs), six steals, and is batting .448.
Elly’s ceiling is the best player in baseball, with possibly 100 combined steals and homers. His whiffs are still a significant knock in a points league, but he should be a second-rounder if he continues to improve the contact.
Brent Rooker – ESPN ADP 114.8, NFBC ADP 64.3
Rooker is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy drafts—he can’t get no respect. All he did last season was mash 39 homers and finish in the top 10 in the American League in OBP, Slugging, and RBIs. If you’re knocking in 112 runs for the Oakland Athletics, you’re doing something very right.
Rooker also hit the IL for an early spell in April due to a ribcage injury, so he only reached 145 games. And, he played in a pretty cavernous ballpark in Oakland—Sacramento will play better for his game. A 40-homer season is easily within reach, and 50 could be a real possibility. How many potential 50-homer bats go outside the top 100?
There’s probably too much swing-and-miss in Rooker’s game to hit .293 like he did last year, but he doesn’t have to. He was 96th percentile in xwOBA, 97th percentile in barrel rate, and 89th percentile in exit velocity. Rooker’s a dark-horse MVP candidate so don’t let the K’s keep you down—and in Roto leagues he should be in the top 50.
James Wood – ESPN ADP 141.7, NFBC ADP 51.5
Like Rooker and Elly, Wood is getting dinged massively due to his K-rate (almost identical to Rooker’s at 28.9% last year). But though his history of swing-and-miss goes back to A-ball, Wood also had a 40:42 Walk:K ratio over 52 games in AAA Rochester before getting the call.
Wood’s got less than half a season in the Majors under his belt, so he didn’t qualify for official Statcast metrics. But if he did, there’s so much to like: 90+ percentiles in Average Exit Velocity, Hard-Hit %, and Chase Rate—something you don’t expect in a high-strikeout hitter. He also walks a ton—11.6% last year. Remember, don’t just look at the K’s in an ESPN points league, look at the K’s minus the walk rate. Wood belongs in the top-100 in any format.
Austin Wells – ESPN ADP 233.3, NFBC ADP 189.1
Did you hear there might be a catcher batting leadoff this season? For the Yankees? Yeah, I’d be interested in that.
Where a points league’s number-one rule is volume, there aren’t many catchers who bat in the top three spots in the lineup (and those that do are the first ones off the board). Sure, Wells won’t play every day like Adley Rutschman and William Contreras, but he’ll get truckloads of at-bats if he’s hitting ahead of Aaron Judge four to five times per week.
Wells only hit .229 last year but had an 11.4% walk rate, which is in the 89th percentile and second at his position. His xwOBA is in the 76th percentile—if he can get on base at that kind of clip and gets somewhere close to 500 at-bats, he could lead all catchers in runs scored. He could also top 20 homers. In a points league that would be a top-5 backstop.
Jack Flaherty – ESPN ADP 143.9, NFBC ADP 145.6
ESPN and the NFBC seem to agree on where Flaherty belongs, but they’re both wrong. Flaherty checks the boxes you need to succeed in a points league and should be in the top 100. Why? Well, last year he threw 162 innings and finished 15th among starters in total points, yet ESPN has him as the 37th SP off the board. If he gets to 170-180 IP this year and maintains last season’s 1.07 WHIP and 10.8 K/9, you’re looking at a top-10 pitcher.
Sure, Flaherty’s got some injury risk, but his fastball sits at 92-93 so he likely won’t be blowing his arm out. He’s also had a spotty performance history but that was due to nagging injuries, which last year he was finally able to shed. Flaherty succeeded with a different approach from earlier in his career, by dotting his slider and curve at the bottom corners of the zone (or below it) – his 77-mph curveball hit the zone just 28% of the time, but batters swung at the pitch outside the zone 42% of the time. The result: opposing hitters managed a .164 average against the curve.
Flaherty is an ace. You should draft him like it.
Shane Baz – ESPN ADP 248.4, NFBC ADP 189.8
Baz made 14 MLB starts in 2024. In his first seven, he averaged 8.7 points per start using ESPN’s standard points system. In his last seven, he averaged 17.1 points.
Know another pitcher who averaged 17.1 points per start? Paul Skenes.
Baz might be a different pitcher from his pre-Tommy John days when his rookie stint in the Majors produced a 36.8% K-rate and 2.03 ERA (he made just three starts but they were darned impressive). His first month in 2023 was a little rockier before it was announced he needed surgery. It took some time to find his groove but he had a 0.68 WHIP in September and was getting around a K per inning.
A standard ESPN points league draft will have 17 rounds—if you’re in a 12-teamer that would be 194 players. That means Baz is going undrafted in most leagues, but he’s well worth your last pick or two.