ADP Draft Values: ESPN

A few years back, ESPN changed their default league settings to points leagues instead of categories/rotisserie. Their scoring system is fairly basic and is designed to attract more casual fans. Last year, they adjusted their default settings even further by trimming roster spots and altering their scoring structure again — again, to make things simple. Here’s how their points settings are configured for 2024:

 

Hitter Categories	Point Value	Pitcher Categories	Point Value
Runs	1	Pitcher outs	1
Total Bases	1	Hits allowed	-1
RBI	1	Earned Runs	-2
Walks	1	Walks Issued	-1
Strikeouts	-1	Wins	2
Steals	1	Losses	-2
		Saves	2
		Holds	2

To understand ESPN’s ADP, you need to know a few things about how this points system shakes out.

1. High strikeout rates will kill your hitters – Have a dynamic player like Elly De La Cruz? If he strikes out 175 times in a season, that will be -175 points that your player has to dig out of to be useful.
2. Power over speed – Steals are worth a single point, whereas a solo home run is worth 6 (4 total bases + 1 Run + 1 RBI). Which should you prioritize?
3. A walk is as good as a single – Max Muncy might hit .200 this season, but he also might get 100 walks. That works out just fine here.
4. A good start will help you, but a bad start will destroy you – say your SP gets rocked and leaves the game with this line: 3 IP, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB (and gets the L). You just got -15 points!
5. Closers are essentially worthless – Devin Williams had a brilliant season with a 1.53 ERA, 36 Saves, and 87 K’s in 58.2 IP. He was outscored in points by Bryan Abreu and Taijuan Walker.

Of course, ESPN still supports Rotisserie and H2H Category leagues. Fortunately, they have a separate set of rankings for those. But they report a single ADP across all their league types, which are heavily skewed toward points league drafts. And since ADP is going to be a byproduct of the points league rankings, you have to understand these biases to know where to strike and where to steer clear, depending on the league you’re in.

So let’s dive in and see where you can take advantage.

 

Where ESPN ADP is Lower than the Consensus

Here are a few players where the Worldwide Leader is a wee bit different from the rest of the industry. If you’re playing with their basic points system, a lot of them make sense. But if you’re not, you should put these guys in your queue and take them when the time is right.

 

Hitters inside the top 100

Player	ESPN ADP	Consensus ADP	Difference
Julio Rodríguez	20	2.6	17.4
Bobby Witt Jr	14	4.2	9.8
Austin Riley	33	18.6	14.4
Elly De La Cruz	75	28.0	47
Luis Robert Jr.	71	32.0	39
Adolis García	81	39.4	41.6
Royce Lewis	100	55.2	44.8
CJ Abrams	136	47.8	88.2
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	159	66.2	92.8
Oneil Cruz	170	67.0	103
Josh Lowe	164	77.6	86.4

(Note: ADPs are taken from FantasyPros consensus list as of March 12, 2024)

As you’ll notice, most of these players fit into similar profiles: they steal bases and strike out. But Austin Riley, Adolis García, and Luis Robert Jr. are also harshly discounted, so they should be on your radar. And if you believe Royce Lewis can stay healthy and Oneil Cruz can sustain his lower K-rate, they deserve far better than what ESPN is giving them.

 

Pitchers inside the top 100

Player	ESPN ADP	Consensus ADP	Difference
Devin Williams	57	50.6	6.4
Josh Hader	60	53.4	6.6
Jhoan Duran	78	71.0	7
Bobby Miller	94	78.0	16
Cole Ragans	104	98.8	5.2
David Bednar	103	90.6	12.4

This list largely makes sense as it’s mostly relievers. Again, if you’re in the ESPN default points league, you should ignore closers altogether. A decent holds guy with 80-100 innings and good ratios will be more valuable than your best closer, and they’ll be free in drafts.

What’s most important here is what you don’t see: every single top 20 Starting Pitcher has a higher ADP on ESPN than the consensus. Only Bobby Miller and Cole Ragans have a lower one among all SPs within the top 100 overall players taken.

The reason for this is simple — ESPN’s scoring system is so volatile (and so punishing to bad outcomes) that great pitchers are REALLY great. But more on this in a bit.

Looking beyond the top 100, ESPN’s default settings have shallower rosters than most — 9 hitters, 5 pitchers, and 3 bench slots. So that’s 17 total, and if you’re in a 12-team league that’s 204 players in the draft. If you expand the rosters and/or have additional teams, here are some players of note.

Hitters outside the top 100

Player	ESPN ADP	Consensus ADP	Difference
Spencer Torkelson	140	103	37
Josh Jung	194	111	83
Jordan Walker	192	115	77
Esteury Ruiz	196	124	72
Zack Gelof	201	140	61
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	207	141	66
Riley Greene	202	149	53
Jarren Duran	210	179	31
Christopher Morel	236	187	49
Kerry Carpenter	269	200	69

The pattern continues here, as most of these players either have K-rates at or above 30%, are speed guys, or both. Of these, Jordan Walker and Riley Greene stand out the most as a bargain, whether you’re playing the ESPN default rules or not.

As for pitchers worth noting, we’ll ignore closers and just look at SPs this time. Most of ESPN’s starter ADPs are still above consensus — some WAY above, as you’ll see in the next section — but there are several that are well below:

Pitchers outside the top 100

Player	ESPN ADP	Consensus ADP	Difference
Justin Verlander	171	127	44
Gavin Williams	215	165	50
Bryan Woo	231	191	40
Shota Imanaga	220	200	20
Brandon Pfaadt	258	205	53
Shane Baz	332	222	110
Christopher Sanchez	336	242	94
Taj Bradley	324	249	75
Michael Wacha	333	272	66

There’s a less discernible pattern here, other than ESPN appears to greatly discount hurt players (Verlander, Williams, Baz, and Bradley have all had recent injury news). Most others on this list are young and unproven with the potential for blow-up starts, so drafters are staying away.

Still, a few of these are curious — Michael Wacha can produce exceptional ratios, along with Christopher Sanchez. Justin Verlander has always carried a low WHIP as well, even if past his prime and expected to start on the IL. I would be buying these discounted players way more than not.

 

Where ESPN ADP is Higher than the Consensus

We now have a pretty thorough understanding of what ESPN’s point rankings — and subsequent ADPs — don’t like. But let’s look further into what they favor — in some cases with their twisted scoring they’re not favoring them enough.

 

Hitters inside the top 100

Player	ESPN ADP	Consensus ADP	Difference
Juan Soto	3	8.4	5.4
José Ramírez	9	15.2	6.2
Adley Rutschman	25	44.0	19
Manny Machado	45	52.6	7.6
Paul Goldschmidt	52	56.8	4.8
Alex Bregman	42	71.8	29.8
Nolan Arenado	62	82.2	20.2
William Contreras	65	83.2	18.2

As with pitchers ranked lower than the consensus, there aren’t too many hitters ranked higher, at least not in the top 100. Of the names listed, there is a slight lean towards reliable veterans getting higher bidding than trendy breakout players and new faces. Remember, ESPN caters to a wider fanbase than say FanTrax or Underdog, so you will get more casual players who pick more recognized names.

On the pitching side, there are some big jumps — as I mentioned, every single top-20 starter is higher than consensus, many by a round or 2. Here are the ones that stand out:

 

Pitchers inside the top 100

Player	ESPN ADP	Consensus ADP	Difference
Zack Wheeler	15	27.6	12.6
Kevin Gausman	18	31.0	13
Luis Castillo	17	34.6	17.6
Logan Webb	30	50.2	20.2
Framber Valdez	34	55.4	21.4
Freddy Peralta	43	57.4	14.4
Logan Gilbert	49	68.0	19
Jesús Luzardo	55	82.2	27.2

There are two statistics to look at when drafting a pitcher in an ESPN points league: Innings Pitched and WHIP. Almost nothing else matters. Though strikeouts are nice, they often come at the expense of walks, so keep an eye more on the K/BB ratio (or K% — BB%, whichever you prefer) rather than just the strikeouts by themselves.

A bit surprisingly, there are 2 names not on this list that should be WHIP specialists: Tarik Skubal and Max Fried. Both can be league winners given that they won’t come at much of a discount, even if they should. Apparently, ESPN drafters are a little spooked by their injury histories, a reason Tyler Glasnow stays around the consensus.

If we go deeper down the draft board, you’ll see another pattern emerge on the hitting side.

 

Hitters outside the top 100

Player	ESPN ADP	Consensus ADP	Difference
Ketel Marte	50	105	55
Yandy Díaz	58	118	60
Marcell Ozuna	107	138	31
Luis Arraez	56	142	86
Ian Happ	116	156	40
Masataka Yoshida	109	167	58
Brandon Nimmo	90	183	93
Steven Kwan	75	195	120
Keibert Ruiz	111	209	98
JP Crawford	145	255	100

Just with pitching, points leagues love volume, which is why you see a lot of leadoff hitters here. But notice it’s a certain type of leadoff hitter — if you’re batting at the top of the order and slapping singles around without striking out, you will find your way into an ESPN draft. It’s these high-average (or high-OBP) hitters who have great bat control and decision-making skills that are highly rewarded with spiking ADPs.

 

Pitchers outside the top 100

Player	ESPN ADP	Consensus ADP	Difference
Chris Bassitt	83	122	39
Merrill Kelly	82	134	52
Mitch Keller	101	150	49
Bailey Ober	124	155	31
Cristian Javier	125	165	40
Nick Pivetta	133	185	52
Reid Detmers	169	225	56
Marcus Stroman	198	255	57

For the most part, the trend here is ’safety’. As mentioned in the intro, a bad outing for a pitcher can net you a negative outcome, sometimes in the -15 to -25 range. If your entire team is scoring 300 points a week on average IN TOTAL, that would be devastating. So the bias is clearly on the side of command specialists who don’t walk a lot of people. And truthfully, ESPN’s ADP doesn’t bias these players enough — so lean into players like Bailey Ober and Merrill Kelly, even if they come at a premium.