Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, highlighting three teams among the different tiers of contention. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article, but where’s the fun in that?
In a season where the National League appears to be head and shoulders above the AL, it is important to take a pause and consider what is happening in the junior circuit. All three AL divisions have a division leader that holds no more than a two-game advantage over No. 2, while only six out of their 15 teams have positive run differentials. The lesson is that 2025 may be a mediocre or fun year in terms of playoff races, depending on your point of view.
With this in mind, today we highlight three AL squads that are coming off notable weeks. On both extremes of the spectrum, the Tigers just handed the Orioles a devastating series sweep in which Detroit outscored the visiting Birds 17-5. This was simply a reflection of how both teams are going, with the Tigers becoming a contender in earnest, while Baltimore may end up being one of the most disappointing teams in the league. In the middle part of the fold, the Tampa Bay Rays remain as mysterious, yet interesting, as ever, and they may be on the verge of surprising a few people.
As Justin Timberlake would say, it’s gonna be May, so let’s take a deeper dive into these teams and their outlook for the following month.
Contender
No. 6 – Detroit Tigers (18-10, +42)
When the Tigers made the playoffs in 2024 and came close to the ALCS, they were basically playing with house money. Having been written off for most of the season, they went on a hot streak that coincided with Minnesota’s collapse, using a rag-tag rotation and expert bullpen management from AJ Hinch that signaled that Detroit was on the right track. The follow-up to that came in the form of higher expectations for 2025, as the front office invested accordingly. So far, it has all gone even better than expected.
Hmm I wonder who has the best run differential in Major League Baseball OH LOOK ITS THE DETROIT TIGERS
— Good Dog, M.A.A.D. Kitty (@meanpete.bsky.social) 2025-04-27T23:44:30.300Z
After an opening-season sweep against the Dodgers, the Tigers have put together an impressive 18-7 mark and now stand alone as the best team in the American League. Their +42 run differential is tied with the Yankees as the best in all of baseball, suggesting that this is far beyond any shadow of a fluke. The key for the Tigers has been clearly on the pitching side, as their staff is No. 2 in the league in terms of ERA, with a rotation that is full of stoppers that will give you a chance to win game in and game out.
This past week was almost a perfect blueprint as to how the Tigers are doing it. Facing a challenging homestand against the Padres and Orioles, Detroit took two of three from San Diego and then swept Baltimore, allowing only 11 runs over the six games, including two shutouts to close out both series. Tarik Skubal’s performance on Sunday was the exclamation point, a dominant 11-strikeout outing that lowered his ERA to 2.34. And yet, he is only in second place in terms of run prevention, with Casey Mize at 2.12 while leading the league in wins. Jack Flaherty and Jackson Jobe also boast ERAs below 3. Reese Olson lags behind, but he does have three wins to his name. The bullpen has held its end of the bargain, with Hinch opting for a closer-by-committee approach that has yielded saves for three different relievers.
Even as the offense has been far more modest in terms of flash and flair, they are still above-average in terms of team OPS. Spencer Torkelson and Zach McKinstry have carried the attack in many games, with two of the most impressive slash lines in baseball. The rest of the lineup has ranged from mediocre to serviceable, but that may be more than enough when you consider the state of the pitching for this team. The biggest story, even if it may not make much noise in baseball circles, is that Javier Báez is finally back to being a respectable major leaguer. His contract may be the biggest albatross in the league, but he is finally making adjustments to produce more contact, leading to a positive WAR figure and league-average production at the plate. As much as Skubal & Co. are essential to Detroit’s success, having a rejuvenated Baez could be the X factor.
Outside of the Guardians, the rest of the Central is in flux and does not appear ready to challenge the Tigers, who will enter the season’s second month with a favorable schedule and a chance to really put some ground between them and their foes. While their 90%+ playoff odds appear a tad steep with so many games left to play, it is easy to see why the projections trust Detroit so much. With a season of playoff experience, a tough-as-nails staff, and the resources to add at the deadline, this could become a dangerous contender for anyone in the AL.
The Middle
No. 17 – Tampa Bay Rays (14-14, +14)
In something that should be shocking to no one, the Rays remain one of the most unexciting yet competitive teams in baseball. They will enter the final week in April with a .500 record and a decent run differential, but with plenty of reasons to think they can make some noise in the mighty AL East.
That's five straight wins for @RaysBaseball!
Tampa Bay is following its traditional model of mixing and matching mostly unheralded players to stay afloat, and so far, a few standouts have emerged. Uber-prospect Junior Caminero is still going through a steep learning curve, as evidenced by his high strikeout totals and low OBP, but the power is real, leading the team with five homers. The outfield duo of Jake Mangum and Kameron Misner has come out of nowhere to combine for nearly 2.0 WAR with superb defense and excellent bat-to-ball skills, while Jonathan Aranda has been the club’s top producer, with a .996 OPS. While this mishmash of misfit toys lacks a true star, they can follow a similar model to Detroit’s, as a middling offense could be enough to complement a good pitching staff.
The Rays may no longer have a true ace, and they have handed the ball to Zack Littell for five starts and seen him lose all five games, but it is clear their season will go as well as their rotation dictates. The emergence of Shane Baz as a frontline starter has been the key to anchor this staff, as he has gone 3-0 with 36 strikeouts in 29.1 innings. Baz’s development was hampered due to several injuries from 2021 to 2024, but he looks like the real deal at the tender age of 25. Even as the Rays have struggled sometimes to adapt to their temporary home stadium (their schedule is designed to play many home games before the cruel Tampa summer arrives), the strange circumstances of this season may end up working in their favor as their pitchers become healthier.
Riding a five-game winning streak that included a road sweep of the Padres, it is becoming clear that the Rays could be more dangerous than expected. With the likes of Boston and New York unable to hold long winning streaks and the Blue Jays struggling to score, Tampa Bay may have enough talent to keep it close in the Wild Card race, while having an outside chance to fight for the division. An upcoming nine-game stretch to start May, which includes series against the Yankees, Phillies, and Brewers, will be a good litmus test for this franchise as they try to return to playoff relevance.
Wait ’til 2026
No. 24 – Baltimore Orioles (10-17, -39)
Cedric Mullins is one of the most successful player development stories in recent Orioles history. Drafted in the 13th round of the 2015 draft, Mullins debuted in 2018 and has amassed 16.4 WAR in his career, becoming the longest-tenured Oriole. He will enter the final week of April as the team’s top player, with a 1.2 WAR that is double the team’s second-best producer. While this may be a nice nugget on paper, and Mullins is one of the most respected players in the league, it also means that a lot of things have gone terribly wrong for Baltimore.
Glancing over the team’s roster is an exercise in unfulfilled expectations and futility, as nearly all of the team’s supposed top players have floundered to start 2025. Gunnar Henderson has a .256 OBP. Adley Rutschman has 8 RBI. Jackson Holliday has four extra-base hits in 79 plate appearances. Charlie Morton sports a 10.36 ERA (!!!) with six losses. We could go on and on naming lackluster Orioles, but the point is that nearly all that could have gone wrong for this team has already gone wrong, turning a promising outlook to playoff odds below 10%.
After losing ace Corbin Burnes to free agency, all experts agreed that the front office had done little to form a solid rotation, but it was widely assumed that the Orioles had enough firepower to overcome their lack of pitching. Instead, the aforementioned Mullins and the little-heralded Ramón Urías and Ryan O’Hearn have been the team’s best hitters, while most of their coveted youngsters have stagnated at the plate. The Orioles are now a bottom-10 offense in terms of OPS despite a decent amount of power. The past week served as a reminder of how boom-or-bust this offense has become, unable to string together rallies. Following the demoralizing 24-2 loss to the Reds, Baltimore lost five of six, while scoring only 10 runs and suffering a couple of shutouts.
For anyone who is tired of getting notifications about #Orioles games, I highly recommend following oriole bird watchers instead. I’m not being sarcastic – it really is a lot more enjoyable.
— Stephen Cauldron (@evencauldron.bsky.social) 2025-04-27T22:17:06.026Z
The question for the Orioles becomes how to approach the rest of the season. The glass-half-full view says that the AL East may not be as daunting as usual and lacks a true dominant squad, which would mean that Baltimore is one hot streak away from climbing back to contention. On the other hand, the humbling start to 2025 may provoke a reevaluation of the future of the franchise, especially when it comes to determining whether this core is actually of championship caliber.
In the end, the answer probably resides in the middle. While it is unlikely that the Orioles can fight for a playoff spot while sporting the worst team ERA in baseball, there is also too much talent in the organization to simply blow it all up. Even in a down year for the AL as a whole, the front office should take a pragmatic approach and see 2025 as a blip in the big scheme of things, aiming to retool quickly and find better arms for 2026 and beyond. However, if the Orioles are to make a run, May will provide a chance, with 20 games against sub-.500 teams.
Full Week 5 Power Rankings
