Every week, the Pitcher List team will publish an update to our power rankings, highlighting three teams among the different tiers of contention. As always, the full rankings can be found at the bottom of this article, but where’s the fun in that?
For the second straight week, we have a new number one on these rankings, as the Tigers continue to prove they are no fluke. We have covered Detroit extensively, but it is still important to mention just how well-rounded they appear to be. Despite not having the best run differential in MLB anymore (that distinction falls to the Yankees), the way Detroit is winning deserves everyone’s attention.
Outside of those superlatives, the Twins just saw their 13-game winning streak snapped, but having Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa back on the IL still gives me pause before considering them in the upper tier. For this week, let’s talk about two constant contenders who have tried a new formula in 2025, leading to surprising results. Also, the Pirates are not where they hoped they would be, but that should only be surprising to die-hard Pittsburgh fans and their clueless front office, who are in the process of squandering a true generational talent.
Contender
No. 4 – Philadelphia Phillies (28-18, +24)
The Phillies tend to be many things, but subtle is not usually one of them. With almost a third of the season in the books, the Phils have somehow flown mostly under the radar, only to be where most of us expected – among the top teams in baseball. The path to this tier has not gone as planned, in many ways, which has rendered the current version of the Phillies a bit more muted than what they normally are. But for a team that shares a division with the Mets and Atlanta, being a a half game out of first place despite middling stats across the board speaks volumes about the infrastructure that this organization has established.
The latest example of Phillies stability was evident just this past weekend. The shocking news of seeing closer José Alvarado suspended for 80 games (and barred from the playoffs) could have been a major blow for any team. Instead, Philadelphia’s front office lamented the situation but with a clear plan to fix from within. The same day, 23-year-old Nick Abel made his MLB debut and out-dueled none other than Paul Skenes en route to his first career win. Few franchises around MLB can boast this level of resourcefulness, which is why the Phillies will continue to be a strong bet to be a prime contender despite their flaws.
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Outside of Kyle Schwarber (15 homers) and the resurgent Bryce Harper (.817 OPS), most of the Phillies lineup has struggled to stay above replacement level, leading to a mediocre attack that has struggled to score consistently. In fact, Philadelphia has yet to amass a five-game winning streak, averaging an uninspiring 4.5 runs per game. The usual fireworks have mostly been absent from Citizens Bank Park, as star players like Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos (combined 10 homers in 532 plate appearances) have started to show their age. 2024 stalwart Alec Bohm has been relegated to an afterthought, becoming one of the worst performers across the league (-0.7 WAR). The Alvarado suspension came days after Aaron Nola was placed on the IL, which may be a reprieve, considering that he is leading the league with seven losses.
And yet, despite all these red flags, the team’s superlatives have been enough to get to this point. The last week provided more evidence of this, as Philadelphia was able to post a 4-2 week despite a paltry +1 run differential. Abel’s debut was certainly exciting, but it is small potatoes compared to what the rest of the rotation is doing. Jesús Luzardo and Zack Wheeler have combined for 5.0 WAR in only 19 starts, while Cristopher Sánchez and Taijuan Walker have also posted ERAs below 3. Even with Nola’s subpar season, Philly pitchers lead the league in strikeouts by a wide margin, giving the team a chance to win in virtually every game.
This type of reliability is what could end up deciding the tough East in their favor, even without the Mets’ star power or Atlanta’s versatility. If Aaron Nola manages to come back healthy and in vintage form, it will give the Phillies the best rotation by a mile in the NL, while the offense could be tasked with scoring at a league-average level and still come out on top in most games. Despite the lack of mammoth homers and flair, maybe this understated version of the Phillies could be the one that finally gets over the hump in October. At least, the Phanatic will always provide the necessary fun.
The Middle
No. 18 – Houston Astros (24-22, +20)
If the Phillies have been quiet compared to their usual standards, how can we describe the 2025 Astros? Long considered the class of the AL West, Houston knew this season would probably be different in many ways, as most of their core players from the halcyon days are gone. The change has been evident and abrupt, similar to when Tal’s Hill disappeared, but the Astros have somehow managed to stay afloat and alive as a relevant team in the AL, albeit one that is far from true championship aspirations. Still, there are many reasons to analyze this Houston team and how this season can become a springboard for better days in the near future.
Houston Astros hitters by wRC+ #Astros #MLB
— sohraub (@sohraub.bsky.social) 2025-05-18T21:16:35.345045+00:00
The departure of Kyle Tucker via trade was a major blow this past offseason, leaving Jose Altuve as the de facto leader in the clubhouse, while Yordan Alvarez was pegged to be the offense’s rock. Somehow, both stars have combined for a ghastly -1.2 WAR, with Alvarez battling several injuries that have sapped his power, while Altuve was a disaster in left field and has posted a .648 OPS to boot. Fortunately for the Astros, other bats have picked up the slack, with Jeremy Peña assuming the role of veteran young leader and Isaac Paredes making the Tucker trade a bit more palatable for the Houston faithful.
Houston’s offense is in the bottom third in several key categories, including homers, OPS, and stolen bases, but the team is still fifth-best in the AL in terms of run differential. Manager Joe Espada has been key in navigating this challenging season, with the pitching staff stepping up as well. Just in the past week, the Astros won three one-run games on the strength of clutch pitching and timely hitting, including an impressive 3-run comeback win in the series finale against Texas, which included a solid outing from ace Framber Valdez. The lefty’s recent return to form has coincided with Hunter Brown’s breakout season to give Houston one of the best one-two punches in the American League.
Brown, in particular, has started to leave behind the early surprise tag to become a bona fide Cy Young candidate. Leading the league in WAR and wins is nice and all, but when that also includes the best mark in FIP and home run rate, it is clear that the righty is reaching new heights. Even as Ronel Blanco has been uneven and the return of Lance McCullers Jr. is a work in progress, there is enough upside in this unit to know that the Astros will find a way to stay close to the playoff race throughout the season. With Josh Hader regaining his status as one of the best closers in the sport, there is no shortage of weapons this team can deploy to win close games.
Current projections suggest that the West will stay close and be decided late, especially as the Rangers and Mariners are good-but-flawed teams, just like the Astros and, to a lesser extent, the Athletics. If Houston can sustain this level of pitching and its star players start seeing some positive regression, there are enough reasons to think they could become slight favorites. But for now, seeing them hanging around the middle of these ranking seems fitting, even for a franchise that had become boringly successful almost to a fault.
Wait ’til 2026
No. 29 – Pittsburgh Pirates (15-32, -62)
When the Pirates fired manager Derek Shelton, the team was a putrid 12-26 on the way to a terrible season. Since Don Kelly was appointed as his successor, the team has gone a similarly putrid 3-6 and still headed in the same direction. You could give the reins of this team to anyone from Connie Mack to Ozzie Guillen and not much would change for this Pirates, who are yet again squandering their gorgeous ballpark with a deplorable product on the field – not to mention all the controversy off it.
The firing of Shelton was supposed to represent the front office’s disappointment in a season in which they expected more competitiveness. Of course, this cognitive dissonance almost borders on cynicism when you consider what the field manager has to work with on a daily basis. No Pirates position player has reached 1.0 WAR, their starting infield has combined for seven homers, and the offense as a whole is dead last in OPS and runs scored. Giving franchise icon Andrew McCutchen a chance to play almost every day is nice and all, but it also speaks volumes of how this team has been mismanaged to oblivion.
Lucking into Paul Skenes may be the only saving grace of the current version of the Pirates, but it may end up soon becoming a Félix Hernández-like situation in which baseball fans start to wonder just how good he could be if only he player for a contender. To wit, Skenes has a losing record despite a 2.44 ERA, including a tough 1-0 heartbreaker against the Phillies that saw Pittsburgh being swept to end yet another tough week. The Pirates are now in their sixth separate losing streak of at least three games, as they have now won only four of their past twenty games.
Paul Skenes has allowed only 17 earned runs in 10 starts this year but the Pirates have lost 7 of those games.
— Codify Baseball (@codifybaseball.bsky.social) 2025-05-18T19:40:01.951Z
As it is wont to happen in the Steel City, there doesn’t appear to be any hope or plan from the front office, while fans are reaching their tipping point in what is becoming a hopeless situation. Having Skenes, the nostalgia of McCutchen, and the crazy hope of seeing Oneil Cruz put it all together prevent the Pirates from becoming a Rockies-like situation, but it is still sad to see what this organization has become. With an upcoming west-coast trip, followed by series against the Astros and Phillies, the Pirates could be on a collision course to their first 100-loss season since 2022.
