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AFL Pitcher Recap

Recap of the Arizona Fall League Pitching Performances

The Arizona Fall League is often a place to utilize extra reps for guys with injury shortened seasons. Mostly higher end bats, there are some high profile pitchers year to year. 2023 featured Jackson Jobe and Ricky Tiedemann and 2024 included most notably Andrew Painter and Yu-Min Lin. Fall league stats should be looked at similarly to spring training stats as it’s mostly used for reps. Some players  Below are a few players to watch as 2025 prospect risers or potential MLB debuts.

 

Andrew Painter, PHI: 15.2 IP | 10 H | 4 ER | 4 BB | 18 K

 

The highest rated pitching prospect in the 2024 AFL was Andrew Painter. After missing all of 2023 with Tommy John surgery, Painter was a dark horse to pitch late in the year but the Phillies chose to not push it, instead choosing to get him some reps in Arizona. Back in action and pitching for the first time above Double-A, he looked to be returning to his 2022 form. Painter was dialing the fastball back up to 100 MPH again and the numbers show the success.

Painter made six starts and showed he’s still a top-50 prospect. With the velocity back, Painter just needed to shake off the rust. The command was iffy to start, but four walks in 15.2 innings is an encouraging sign recovering from Tommy John surgery. Painter walked just 25 batters in his 103.2 innings during the 2024 season. While it’s a smaller sample size, the walks are the only slight concern from his AFL performance. Painter lived over the middle of the plate a good amount in the AFL, but his stuff is good enough to do that. This is something to keep an eye on as he continues to climb the later, but the upside is a high as ever.

 

Yu-Min Lin, ARI: 9 IP | 9 H | 3 ER | 3 BB | 9 K

 

The second highest rated pitching prospect in the league is most likely Yu-Min Lin. The Diamondbacks young left-handed pitcher had a great 2022 and 2023 putting himself on the map. The end of 2023 and all of 2024 were spent at the Double-A level where he was hit harder than previous levels. Lin has a deep pitch mix but lacks a powerful fastball. A mid to back end starter, Lin has enough pitches to keep hitters guessing.

Lin is smaller at 5’11” and 160 pounds so he won’t light up the radar gun. The secondary offerings are where Lin will make his mark. The changeup is his best pitch, but a good slider and curve allow him to mix up the portfolio. Lin impressed in the AFL, striking out a batter per inning. Lin also pitched four innings in relief for Chinese Taipei in the championship game. He threw four innings, allowing no runs, and striking out three. Catching up on missed time from 2024 after being hit by a ball in the dugout, Lin looks to be just as consistent. An outside chance to break camp, Lin should be given a true shot in spring training.

 

Josh Stephan, TEX; 20 IP | 15 H | 5 ER | 5 BB | 21 K

 

Josh Stephan threw the most innings of any pitcher in the 2024 AFL, and put up some of the best numbers in three starts over six appearances. Stephan broke out in 2022 and followed it up with a good, but short 2023 season. 2024 was a big of a regression year as it was his first real taste above High-A. Stephan kept his walk rate respectable and strikeout rate up, but surrendered a good amount hits in 2024.

With a 2.25 ERA with the most innings pitched and one more strikeout than innings, Stephan impressed. The command was there, as was the swing and miss. More of a back end of the rotation starter, Stephan knows how to pitch. It remains to be seen how the stuff plays at higher levels, but Stephan has a good chance to be a No. 4/5 starter. Given all the talent in the Rangers rotation, he could be a part of a trade or used as a spot starter. Given the success in the AFL, Stephan should see 2025 begin as a starter opposed to reliever.

 

Marc Church, TEX: 6.2 IP | 5 H | 3 ER | 1 BB | 10 K

 

One of my favorites sleeper picks headed into the 2023 season, Marc Church has yet to put it all together. A reliever throughout his minor league career, Church has a two-pitch mix with some control issues at times but could be a late inning reliever. The Rangers gave him a chance to debut in 2024 and he threw a scoreless inning with one strikeout. He’s still young and will turn 24 in March with a fresh arm. With good size at 6’3″, Church dominated the fall league to help himself break camp with the Rangers in 2025.

Church has an athletic delivery and continues to showcase his electric fastball and slider combination. There is no question Church is a reliever, but this AFL performance shows he could be a high leverage reliever. The slider lives in the upper 80’s and the fastball in the upper 90’s. A two-pitch mix with average command is tough to succeed in a high-leverage role. Church will most likely have to prove he can continue this success before the Rangers hand him a crucial role.

 

Grant Taylor, CHW: 7.2 IP | 15 H | 8 ER | 7 BB | 13 K

 

Seemingly the most popular sleeper pick in the 2024 AFL, but the 2023 MLB Draft as well, Grant Taylor has consistently received buzz since draft day in 2023 as a start with above average stuff. There aren’t many prospectors that aren’t on Taylor but the AFL didn’t quite go as planned. Taylor had a dominant 19.1 inning debut between Rookie ball and Low-A. As a 22-year-old second round pick, that was to be expected. 19.1 innings, with a 2.33 ERA and 32 strikeouts is the start the White Sox expected when they drafted him 51st overall.

Although not a great performance from a numbers standpoint, Taylor still showcased the strikeouts. An AFL invite for Taylor was due to missed time, but seems as though he was working on his pitches. The Arizona Fall League isn’t a result-heavy league, but it’s good to see. Allowing hits and runs don’t raise alarms, but the seven walks in 7.2 innings isn’t ideal. Walks and hits allowed could both be due to trying new pitches, as Taylor walked just two batters in 19.1 innings last season. Taylor is a pitching prospect that most think will catapult himself into top-100 lists. This is directly related to his stuff. The stuff is above average across the board, with a chance to have multiple plus pitches. If he’s healthy, the White Sox could start Taylor in Double or Triple-A to start 2025.

 

Peyton Pallette, CHW: 5.2 IP | 10 H | 8 ER | 2 BB | 6 K

 

Another high profile college arm drafted in the 2nd round by the White Sox, Peyton Pallette has seen some early success. While he may not reach his frontline-starter potential, Pallette could develop into a late-inning reliever. The command improved from 2023 to 2024, but still needs to see another jump. Drafted 62nd overall in 2022, Pallette could see a debut regardless of performance in 2025. Surely the White Sox will give him the 2025 season to try to continue to start as they most likely finish poorly in the standings again.

As a second White Sox prospect with above average stuff that didn’t translate to plus numbers. Pallette was hit hard but limited the walks in his small sample size. Walks were the issue in the regular season so as this continues to decrease, his stock increases. Similar to Taylor, Pallette could start at a higher level out of spring training. Slightly ahead of the timeline for Taylor, Pallette should see an MLB debut in mid-to-late 2025. This could come as a starter or reliever, but he should be given a shot to start on a bad team.

 

Jun-Seok Shim, MIA: 5IP 6H 11ER 12BB 5K

 

One of the top international signings in the 2023 class, Shim was traded mid-season for Bryan De La Cruz in 2024. As a highly touted pitcher, Shim had a promising looking debut in 2023 for the Pirates. With eight innings over four appearances, Shim tallied 13 strikeouts to the tune of a 3.38 ERA. He was shut down with a shoulder injury and missed the entirety of the 2024 season. However Shim has time on his side and an organization that has developed some pitchers well of late.

Shim did not bounce back from his shoulder injury during his AFL stint. 12 walks in a minuscule five innings pitched is problematic. Shim has size, standing 6’4″, backed up with good stuff. The results haven’t been there for Shim, but he’s working back from injury. He’ll most likely start 2025 in Low-A and the Marlins will be cautious with him workload. Injuries to both his shoulder and elbow have caused him to miss time recently. The hype isn’t as high as when he signed, but a solid 2025 could bring the hype back up for Shim.

 

Image Courtesy of Instagram | Designed by Aaron Asbury (@aarongifs on Instagram)

One response to “AFL Pitcher Recap”

  1. Babbo B says:

    Eriq Swan says “hi”

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