The All-Star game is almost upon us, and MLB announced the starting lineups last week. This month, we thought it would be fun to approach our PLV All-Stars differently than we did after April and May and compare the starting lineups for the Midsummer Classic to whom PLV would have given the nod.
Today we’ll cover the American League and follow with the National League in a few days. The voters did a fine job, but a few discrepancies are detailed below. If you need a refresher on PLV, check out the What is PLV? primer before reading further.
Fan Vote Catcher: Jonah Heim
PLV Catcher: Adley Rutschman
Heim was a fine choice by the voters and has put up huge numbers in the Rangers’ high-powered offense. PLV also likes what Heim has done, rating him above average in Strikezone Judgement (SJ), Contact, and Hitter Performance (HP).
The only area Heim is below average is in Decision Value (DV). He’s aggressive at the plate and only takes a walk in 7% of his plate appearances.
Rutschman, on the other hand, has a 15% BB% and a higher OBP than Heim despite a lower batting average. Ironically, his SJ is a tad below average, but he makes up for it with a high Contact rate. The bottom line is both catchers are deserving, and while PLV gives the edge to Rutschman, it’s hard to argue with the people’s choice of Jonah Heim.
Fan Vote & PLV First Baseman: Yandy Díaz
PLV agrees with the voters on Yandy Díaz, who’s having a breakout season. Diaz has always been a good hitter with an excellent eye, but he has added power to his game this year.
He cooled off in that department in June, failing to hit a home run after slugging 12 in the first two months, and his PLV Power rating has dropped to average as a result. It will be interesting to see if Diaz’s power returns in the second half or if the first two months of 2023 were just an anomaly.
Fan Vote & PLV Second Baseman: Marcus Semien
PLV is likewise on board with Semien at second base. Semien is above average in nearly every PLV category, especially SJ, where he’s been as good as it gets. He’s posting a career-low K% and career-high OBP thus far, and though PLV ranks his Power below average, he still has hit 11 HRs and owns a respectable .173 ISO.
Fan Vote & PLV Shortstop: Corey Seager
The third Ranger voted in by the fans is Corey Seager, and PLV couldn’t agree more. The only knock on Seager is that he missed a month of the season due to injury, but when he’s played, he’s been terrific.
Seager is tied for the AL lead in RBI by a shortstop despite missing roughly a third of the season and is one of only three players with an HP of 80. Seager ranks above average in every PLV category and most by a fair amount. Bo Bichette has also been great, but he falls a bit short of Seager’s production.
Fan Vote Third Baseman: Josh Jung
PLV Third Baseman: Alex Bregman
PLV prefers Alex Bregman to Josh Jung, though Jung’s stats are superior. The only area Bregman has him beat is in RBI, and not by much. However, though Jung’s Power is superior, PLV loves Bregman’s SJ, DV, and Contact rates. He’s walked more than he’s struck out this season, and his OBP is one hundred points higher than his BA. Bregman is not the power hitter he was early in his career, but he’s still an excellent hitter.
Jung has cut down on his K% and increased his BB% from last season, but they still sit at 28% and 6.5%, respectively. The youngsters’ power is legit, though, as indicated by his .219 ISO through the first three months of the 2023 season.
Fan Vote & PLV Outfielder: Aaron Judge
The 2022 AL MVP has been every bit as good as he was last year when he’s been on the field. Judge is one of only two players with a PLV of 80 in Power and HP and also ranks high in SJ and DV. He’s not just a slugger; he’s a tremendous hitter who isn’t afraid to take a walk.
The only knock on his is his low Contact rate, likely a by-product of how hard he swings. Unfortunately, Judge won’t likely participate in the All-Star game, but he is more than deserving. We’ll point out who we think should replace him in a bit.
Fan Vote & PLV Outfielder: Mike Trout
Trout’s batting average may be a bit lower than where it usually sits, but PLV agrees with the voters that he deserves to start in the Midsummer Classic. Trout ranks high in every PLV category except for Contact, where he’s slightly below average.
This is not uncommon for a power hitter, which we saw with Judge and will see again with Trout’s teammate. No player has an SJ of 80, and only Trout, Seager, and Semien have a 75 among AL hitters. Trout is still among the best of the best and, fortunately, has stayed on the field all season.
Fan Vote Outfielder: Randy Arozarena
PLV Outfielder: Kyle Tucker
Arozarena got the people’s vote, and PLV has him ranked fourth among AL outfielders, making him a starter in both lineups due to Judge’s absence. That said, PLV likes what Kyle Tucker has done this season a bit more than Arozarena. Tucker sits at or above average in every category and continues to improve as a hitter. He’s only striking out in 13% of his PAs and draws a walk nearly as often. His homers are down from last season, but he’s making up for it with a higher OBP.
Randy Arozarena is also improving, particularly with his selectivity at the plate. He displayed poor SJ and DV in 2022 but has been average or better in those categories this season. His 13% walk rate reflects this, and he deserves credit for the work he’s put into getting better.
Fan Vote & PLV DH: Shohei Ohtani
Technically, Yordan Alvarez has slightly better overall PLV numbers than Ohtani. However, he’s hurt, and Ohtani’s Power and HP are matched only by Judge. Ohtani’s selectivity is average according to PLV, and he struggles a bit with Contact. However, he more than makes up for it with a .364 ISO and 1.070 OPS that lead MLB by a fair margin.
Much like his teammates Tucker and Bregman, Alvarez has an excellent PLV profile, meeting or exceeding the average in every category. Ohtani, though, has been something special yet again this season.
PLV Starting Pitcher: Zach Eflin
The starting pitchers have been announced, but PLV casts its vote for Zach Eflin, who owns the league’s lowest PLA at 2.45. Eflin has put up excellent numbers on the AL’s best team and doesn’t get the credit he deserves. He’s dominated PLV with all four of his offerings, as indicated below.
Shane McClanahan gets the headlines, but Eflin deserves recognition for what he’s done this season.
Check back in a few days for our NL PLV All-Stars.