Predicting the future success of a young player is no easy feat. Millions of factors come into play between a prospect signing with a Major League team and their eventual MLB debut. Injuries and trades have a massive impact on how a player’s career pans out. For some, they live up to the hype and become franchise players for the team that showed faith in them. Others, settle into smaller roles and contribute off of the bench. Some fall out of baseball completely.
However, in rare cases, players whose careers had stagnated rebound and perform above expectations. Jurickson Profar finished in the top-25 among all qualified Major Leaguers with a 4.3 WAR after nine MLB seasons with sub 2.5 seasons (including a -1.6 in 2023). Taylor Ward spent four seasons struggling to assert himself before asserting himself as a big-leaguer with a 136 wRC+ in 2022. Just because a player’s first few seasons do not live up to the hype does not mean they cannot grow into a valuable contributor.
While the early results for these three players have not matched the lofty expectations placed on each of them, they find themselves in good positions to rebound in 2025. None of these players is a sure thing, and they all have issues that need to be addressed before they can become stars. However, they all have the potential to finally take the next step and become valuable fantasy assets next season. By no means are these the only three players who could fall into this category, but they are the three I am most confident in.
Here are three former prospects that fantasy managers should aim to acquire while their value is low.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B – Pittsburgh Pirates
Out of the three prospects profiled in this article, Hayes is by far the safest option of the three. The Pirates signed him to an eight-year, $70 million extension at the beginning of the 2022 season. The two seasons that followed were brilliant for the former #9 prospect in baseball. Hayes put together back-to-back 3+ WAR seasons, providing value primarily with his defense but also contributing a fair amount on offense as well.
The 2023 season was a perfect indication of the player that Hayes became. He hit .271 with a .762 OPS and mashed 15 home runs. According to wRC+, he was exactly at the league average (100) in terms of run creation, but his 21 DRS and 17 OAA made him a key piece of the Pirates’ defense, warranting a spot in the lineup for 124 games.
Once hailed as a possible franchise cornerstone, Hayes regressed mightily in 2024. Nearly every offensive metric took a nosedive.
Yikes. Those numbers won’t fill dynasty managers with confidence in his future performance, and they shouldn’t. However, it is important to note that Hayes has been dealing with a back injury for the past three seasons, and it seemed to finally catch up with him last season. MLB.com reported that Hayes’ back issues have been plaguing his performance since 2022. They affected his 2023 season as well, as he missed time with two stints on the injury list for back-injury-related reasons.
It is impossible to speculate on a player’s future health, and the past doesn’t paint an encouraging picture regarding his future. That said, the same MLB.com article states that Hayes is undertaking a new rehab program during the offseason. Once again, it is impossible to say for sure, but if this program is more successful at mitigating some of the back issues, then Hayes could take a step forward in 2025.
The 27-year-old’s Process+ chart shows that he made significant improvements in his approach at the plate after July 1st. His raw numbers from that date onward are not pretty. A 42 wRC+ and two extra-base hits in 150 plate appearances are not numbers indicative of an impact player. However, there may have been some luck involved. Hayes’ .240 BABIP during that period would have ranked third-worst in Major League Baseball among qualified batters. Over the course of the whole season, his hard-hit% (42.9%) puts him comfortably in the top half among MLB hitters, and he squared the ball up 31.3% of the time he swung (27th in MLB).
A lot of things have to go right for Ke’Bryan Hayes to be a factor in fantasy baseball next season. He will have to return to his 2023 form, or even excel past it, for managers to trust him again (I would know, I drafted him last season). However, the numbers indicate that there is room for growth in Hayes’ game, and he might be in line for a bounce-back season.
He’s under contract with the Pirates until 2029, so unless they find a way to unload the last four years of his deal, he will remain in Pittsburgh. There isn’t a ton to worry about in terms of prospects that could take over for Hayes, so his position should be safe to open the season, giving him a chance to re-establish himself. The third baseman’s value has never been lower, so now is the time to strike if you need a cheap upgrade at third base. If Hayes can find a way to battle through his back injuries and find some of his 2023 magic, he could be a valuable option for fantasy managers.
Mickey Moniak, OF – Los Angeles Angels
The number one overall pick in the 2016 Draft was once hailed as baseball’s next great centerfielder. Moniak hit .476 in 29 high school games during his senior season before signing with the Philadelphia Phillies. MLB.com compared him to Christian Yelich during the pre-draft process, citing his 60-grade fielding and 55-grade power as key elements of his game.
He made his MLB debut in the COVID-shortened 2020 season with the Phillies, hitting .214 in eight games. In parts of five Major League seasons with the Phillies and the Los Angeles Angels, Moniak is hitting .230 with an OBP of just .272. In 275 career games, he has collected a career WAR of 1.0. Moniak received regular playing time for the first time in his career in 2024, hitting 14 home runs and stealing eight bases.
Going into 2025, Moniak is in line to receive regular playing time for the second straight season. The Angels continue to search for a supporting cast for one of the sport’s biggest stars, Mike Trout. Zach Neto, Logan O’Hoppe, and Nolan Schanuel have all grown into valuable assets in the lineup, but the Halos need more offensive firepower if they aim to compete in the AL West.
Moniak showed flashes of being able to step into that role. In August, he was one of the best hitters on the planet. Moniak had a 1.116 OPS with six home runs in 64 plate appearances during that month. However, on the other end of the spectrum, Moniak can fall into cold stretches that limit his value. After his brilliant August performance, he hit just .123 in September.
The main issue plaguing Moniak that limits his potential going forward is his plate discipline. He’s in the 10th percentile among Major League hitters in both chase rate and walk rate. He swings the bat very hard, but rarely makes hard contact, which has led to a 2024 BABIP well below .300. It’s not impossible for plate discipline to improve over the span of a player’s career, and all of these numbers are improvements on his ’23 performance. That said, striking out in over 25% of your at-bats with a whiff rate over 30% does not usually result in a ton of success at the plate.
He is the epitome of a “buy very-low” player. On paper, Moniak brings very little to the table in terms of fantasy impact. The reason he finds himself on this list is the upside his bat carries and the extended run in the Majors he will likely get on a bad Angels roster. Moniak’s bat speed (73.1) puts him among established hitters like Anthony Santander (44 HRs) and Seiya Suzuki (136 wRC+). If he’s able to make another stride toward limiting his strikeout and contact issues, he could transform into a valuable asset, especially in deeper leagues.
With higher contact rates, come more hits, and with more hits comes the possibility of more stolen bases. Moniak, who went 8/12 on steals in ’24, is faster (28.3 mph) than Nico Hoerner, Cedric Mullins, and Jazz Chisholm, who all eclipsed the 30 stolen-base mark last season. If he’s able to increase his batting average and on-base rate in 2025, he could be a player to watch on the basepaths.
Moniak’s combination of power and speed has been limited by his soft contact and whiff issues so far in his Major League career. If he is able to continue improving in these areas, he could break out and become a valuable fantasy asset in 2025.
Forrest Whitley, P – Houston Astros
In my last article discussing AJ Blubaugh’s dynasty outlook, I wrote about how the Astros were in a transitional period as their “old guard” of arms are starting to leave the rotation one by one. Justin Verlander is not the pitcher he was five years ago, and Yusei Kikuchi will hit the open market this offseason. The team’s ace going into 2025, Framber Valdez, will hit the open market after this season and will be due for a massive raise that Houston may deem to be too expensive.
Whitley has been considered one of the organization’s crown jewels since being drafted in 2016. He was among the Astros’ top-five prospects from 2017-2022, and was the team’s #1 prospect for four of those seasons. It’s been a rollercoaster of a career so far for Whitley. He was suspended for 50 games in 2018 for a violation of MLB’s drug prevention and treatment policy. He returned in 2019 with varying levels of success, ending with a 7.99 ERA over four levels. COVID then took away the 2020 season, and Tommy John surgery ended his 2021 season before it could begin. He returned for 13 games the next season, but an ERA of 6.53 did little to inspire confidence in his ability. Whitley struggled to stay healthy in 2023, battling a lat strain and finger inflammation. He finally returned to the mound in 2024, pitching to a 2.12 ERA in 33 appearances at AAA.
You might be saying “Wow! an ERA around two in 33 games? That sounds really good! Why is he valued so low?” Well, it’s because he only started one of those games, and was rarely used after the seventh inning. With Josh Hader under contract, the chances he becomes the next closer in Houston are (to put it nicely) slim to none. The reason I’m suggesting Whitley as a buy-low option for fantasy baseball is based on the (albeit) slim chance he returns to the starting rotation conversation in 2025.
He has the raw tools to make the conversion. The first two pitches of this video demonstrate how filthy his repertoire could be.
That curveball is just plain filthy, and it’s by far Whitley’s best pitch. At 5.34, it’s his best pitch by a wide margin in terms of PLV, and Fangraphs gives it a 135 stuff+ rating. While the sinker needs some work (4.99 PLV, 8% whiff), the velocity should play at the MLB level. He may have a secret weapon in his arsenal too. Whitley only used his cutter 10% of the time at AAA last season, despite the pitch having a 42% strike rate. He locates the cut-fastball primarily in the zone on his glove side, and the movement profile differentiates it from his sinker-curveball combination. If he’s able to integrate that pitch into his repertoire more going forward, that gives him three solid offerings to work with.
It’s no secret that Whitley has an electric arm capable of generating plenty of strikeouts (412 in 301 minor-league innings). However, a 4.66 BB/9 during his time in the minor leagues and a WHIP above 1.3 indicate that he has trouble keeping runners off the basepaths. That issue was a key in Houston’s decision to transition Whitley into the bullpen. In order to reclaim his value, he needs to address the issues with walks, which should keep him in games for longer.
I want to reiterate, that these players should be considered as “buy extremely low” if your league allows you the flexibility to take flyers on guys like Whitley. There are three outcomes that I can foresee happening for Whitley in 2025: 1. He remains a one-inning arm in the middle of the Astros bullpen. 2. The adjustments discussed are made, but there just isn’t room for him in the rotation, therefore he becomes a valuable, multi-inning arm (ideally in a Brant Hurter-esque role). And 3. He finally cracks the Houston rotation and repays the faith the organization has had in him for nine years. If the 27-year-old finds a way back into the starting rotation, he has breakout potential and could evolve into a legitimate option in the back end of fantasy rotations.