Welcome back to the list, and this week’s theme is: oh so close to the deadline, but no cigar! We did have a few trades trickle in, but as of the time of writing this, I still don’t know about some of the big deals that will unfold (and some that should happen but won’t). So I’ll try to limit my speculation and focus mostly on the performances that warrant our attention. Let’s get some popcorn to watch the deadline news roll in, and get on to the list!
BUY
10-team
Andrew Vaughn (1B, Milwaukee Brewers)
Maybe what he needed all along was to be freed from the White Sox despair machine. In his last 50 PA, he has warped into a beast of a hitter, with his .471 xwOBA over that span higher than Vlad Guerrero Jr., and one of the biggest risers, with that xwOBA up .154 points from his previous 50 PA. Take a look at his Statcast sliders. Red, Red, and in Avg. Exit Velo, Barrel% and HardHit%, blood red. And he’s managed all this with a K% that’s actually above league average.
He may have simply been due for some positive regression, as his barrel rate suggested from earlier on that he deserves better, though as we’ve seen with several other examples this year, that doesn’t mean that the luck will change. What we do know is that he’s hit well enough on his new team to be a fixture in the heart of the lineup, and it still may not be too late to buy low or low-ish on him thanks to his still poor-looking .228 AVG and 10 HR on the season. But that window is quickly closing as people are catching on.
Michael Harris II (OF, Atlanta Braves)
He’s back now. This is not a drill. Nearly every year he drives us to the brink and we likely even threw him overboard, but after a week of hitting .500 with 2 homers, you really kinda have to jump back in. Why? Because we’ve seen him when he’s hot, and when he is, he transforms into one of the most potent hitters in the game. I think the fact he’s just struck out once this week also points to that. Just note that the power and speed have been trending down since his rookie year, so his power/speed contributions might be more mild than you may have hoped for.
12-team
Tyler O’Neill (OF, Baltimore Orioles)
Did he create the quantom atom when he hit a homer every day, because it’s become so routine he’s a O’Niels Bohr. Yes, these writeups are mainly excuses to make increasingly obscure puns. But you probably knew by now that O’Neill has homered in 4 straight games, which frankly is SUCH a Tyler O’Neill thing to do. His barrel rate has jumped over that span to the same elite 17% Barrel% as last year, and thus far this year he actually has a much better 24% K%, down 10% from his 2024 mark of 34% K%. If he can marry this elite barrel rate with better contact, he could put together 2 months that look like his breakout 2021 season.
Romy Gonzalez (1B/2B/SS, Boston Red Sox)
People tend to be quite skeptical of a player like this that had such an unexpected run of success, so perhaps that 0-for-18 slump was enough to get most teams to cut losses and move on. If this describes your league, scoop like all heck. His 25% K% does mean he’ll be prone to streaks, but his .286 xBA and .539 xSLG is very supported by his peripherals, especially his 95 mph eV and 17% barrel%. Yes, it’s padded by his insane vs lefty rates, but he’s at least been passable vs righties with a .720 mark.
Matt Wallner (OF, Minnesota Twins)
The Buxton injury means more opportunities for regular playing time for Wallner, who has been a mild disappointment thus far due to merely very good and not obscene barrel rates. It seems this may be due to him trading quality for quantity, as his 30% K% is the best of his career. A power streamer for 12-teamers or a long-term add in 15-teamers.
15-team
Warming Bernabel (3B, Colorado Rockies)
I saw him put a heating pad under a bell and it caused it to get scorched. Yes, I saw Warming burn a bell.
He certainly has been on fire with 2 homers and a .400 average in his first 16 PA. I had read about his plus 12% K% in the minors, but the major complaint was his 84 average exit velocity, which suggested that the power is more an artifact of the very hitter-friendly home park. Then again, he plays in Coors. I’m encouraged to see so far he’s had no issues finding barrels (2 in 16 PA) with an 88 mph average exit velocity and 6% K%. The sample is infinitesimally small, but a rookie hitter doing well is as exciting as a Rockies hitter doing well, and he could if nothing else be a source of strong average and regular playing time, which doesn’t sound so different than a healthy Alec Bohm on a worse team. Get him now because interest in him is: Warming up.
Daylen Lile (OF, Washington Nationals)
Maybe it’s irrational that I’m still on this bandwagon, as most have jumped off given his ho-hum season line of .240/.287/.373 with 2 HR and 4 SB in 150 AB (165 PA). He’s just 2% rostered and 1% started in CBS formats, but I am proud to be among that 2%. For one, his average has been steadily rising from near the Mendoza Line, and his .308 xBA signals that he’s deserved better luck. He has an excellent whiff rate and also a strong chase rate, and that combined with a truly elite LA Sweet Spot% and surprisingly near-average HardHit% make me think he can be a batting average and speed sleeper with potential to be a Sal Frelick type. We like Sal Frelick. Add in 15-team formats, and obviously NL-only formats where he’s still being oft slept on.
Lenyn Sosa (2B/3B, Chicago White Sox)
He doesn’t get enough credit for being a strong summertime hitter, and he’s hitting .281 with 3 homers over the past 21 days but mostly propped up by hitting .444 with no strikeouts in 18 AB this week. Now hitting .274 with 10 HR and 2 SB, you can squint and see Luis Garcia Jr., albeit with a bit less speed.
Deep Leagues
Adrian Del Castillo (C, Arizona Diamondbacks)
He’s come a long way since his days as a hip hop DJ named Del The Funky HomersAdrian. Like some other bat-first catchers before him, his poor glove has kept him in the minors and blocked, but the combination of Moreno’s injury and Naylor’s trade has opened up a spot for him at DH. He still doesn’t have any barrels and his HardHit% is the only good looking thing in his profile, but the whiff and chase rates suggest future K rate improvement and he is still a catcher who seems like he has a bat to be a passable DH, which has deep league value.
Johnny DeLuca (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
It’s not easy to predict what the Rays will do to clear room for him in the OF with Simpson playing well, but it seems like the defensively gifted DeLuca will play and has intriguing speed with a chance for some pulled flyball homers.
Austin Slater (OF/1B, Chicago White Sox)
This may be for leagues so deep it’s hardly relevant for anyone, and of course for DFS. But Slater has, at least against lefties, been quietly quite a force, with a .289 xBA and .570 xSLG backed by a 49% HardHit% and 16% barrel. He has played an almost equal amount and hit much worse against them, but in DFS or super deep leagues in a stretch with multiple lefty starters, he’s an underrated option. I mean, he’s 0% rostered, so very underrated.
Editor’s Note: Austin Slater was traded to the New York Yankees on July 30th.
SELL
10-team
Riley Greene (OF, Detroit Tigers)
He may seem Greene but he’s showing some red flags. It might seem absolutely ridiculous that I’m casting aspersions on a player who is hitting .275 with 26 homers on the year, pacing for 40 jacks on a stacked lineup. Now, he’s not a drop, I’m calling him a sell in the sense that most leagues still haven’t passed their trade deadline. But while he’s managed to hit .233 with 4 homers in the past month, his strikeout rate has been over 40% for over a month now, with 19 Ks in 45 ABs the past two weeks. In fact, although the surface stats haven’t triggered alarms, he’s the biggest decliner in the rolling 100 PA xwOBA in all of baseball, with a .170 point drop to .252 xwOBA over the past 100 PA. For reference, that’s between Josh Rojas and Elias Diaz. Eek.
His season K% is now over 33% on the season after this stretch, and the other shoe may soon drop in terms of strikeout rate. As it mostly hasn’t yet, his trade value is still that of a star, whereas the next two months of production could be less and a drain on the batting average. He has been one of the rare players whose high batted ball quality has shielded him from bad K rates, but last year’s 27% is a different story. Now he’s looking more like Tyler O’Neill (actually has the exact same barrel% and K% as O’Neill from 2024), so sell on the name value for a real haul before the K rate comes to bite him.
Jonathan Aranda (1B, Tampa Bay Rays)
It’s easy to quell any worries about him by looking at the bright red top of his Statcast page, assuming all is well, and going back to bed. It’s true that the average is still excellent, and his expected Stats still more or less support him. But you have to remember how much of his production was front-loaded, and he’s been in a tailslide. Over his last 100 PA, is rolling xwOBA is down .129 points to just .327. Now that’s not terrible, but remember that he is a first baseman and is largely platooned (though his .750 OPS vs lefties isn’t terrible).
12-team
Nick Castellanos (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
Speaking of hitters who seem to always coast by despite problematic K rates… The bearded veteran slugger is losing his mojo, unlike red-hot summers of previous seasons, with a -.088 drop in rolling 100 PA xwOBA to just .283. That’s what we were hoping his batting average was going to be. With middling power, and middling average, he’s really a waste of a spot in 12-teamers, since you can find other hitters on good teams who actually offer upside in one of the power/speed/avg categories instead of being merely average.
Colt Keith (2B, Detroit Tigers)
Colt must be 45 because his bat has turned all malty and it’s been hard to swallow. His rolling xwOBA which had been rising over .400 is now plummeting below .300, and he’s still sitting at .253 with 8 homers. Overall, he still seems like a more complete player than he did last year, with a higher barrel rate, higher HardHit% and similar K% with a better walk rate. But outside of OBP formats, it seems like he’s another year of development away before his bat is able to compensate for his lack of wheels to be viable in 12-team AVG leagues.
Cam Smith (3B/OF, Houston Astros)
The Astros’ loss of Paredes makes it more likely that he’s staying in the majors despite his precipitous decline in xwOBA over his past 100 PA, but it’s hard to see the fantasy upside for redraft. Despite quality bat speed (84th percentile) and sprint speed (93rd percentile), he has a terrible strikeout rate but also below average barrel% and HardHit%, and not enough stolen bases to be a viable speed play.
15-team
Cole Young (2B, Seattle Mariners)
He’s young, he’s clearly very talented, but he’s also feeling the squeeze. He’s hitting just .239 with 2 homers in 158 PA for a Mariners team that has committed to contending with their trade deadline acquisitions. He’s listed by roster resource as the starting 2nd baseman, but Jorge Polanco, who is currently playing more DH, can eat into his playing time, as well as other infielders like Dylan Moore. His xwOBA has been on the rise, but the 22-year-old doesn’t make enough hard contact (31% HardHit%) to make an impact.
Carlos Narvaez (C, Boston Red Sox)
I don’t know why it seems Red Sox catchers in particular seem to always be able to sustain a batting average that is way above what seems possible. Last year it was Connor Wong, a few years earlier it was Christian Vazquez, and before them it Sandy Leon. Narvaez actually did seem to be okay with Statcast back when I last checked in on him as a buy in May, but his expected stats have quietly evaporated. You probably didn’t realize it because of his .257 AVG and .424 SLG% with 9 HR in 321 PA, but he’s actually deserved worse with a .221 xBA and .370 xSLG. He’s still strong defensively, but in a year of good catcher breakthroughs, you can do better in 15-teamers.
