Hello, deep leaguers, and happy All-Star break. As usual, I want to take this time to suggest some additional All-Star activities. The derby is great, but baseballers can do more than hit long balls in batting practice. The thing I most want to see is a classic game of rundown, or pickle. I know we can’t do that due to the injury risks, but it would be a lot of fun. I’d love to see a relay drill where corner outfielders have to hit a cut-off guy, in a designated area, who then has to relay the ball to home. This could feature a runner trying to score from first or second, or just the defenders if we’re trying to save hamstrings. I wanna see pitchers throwing breaking pitches around obstacles to hit targets. A bullpen dodgeball game! Heck, just line up all the players for a big race!
Fallers
Henry Bolte, Outfielder, Athletics – 8% Rostered
Bolte was a riser back in week 13. I really liked what I saw in terms of bat speed, foot speed, and team context. But he’s back here on the wrong side of the ledger because he’s slashed just .152/.222/.242 since the start of July. Bolte has just one hit in his last 22 at-bats (at least it was a homer). He is sporting a BABIP of just .167 in July, but we can’t just chalk this up to some bad batted luck and call it a day.
Back when we first checked on Bolte, he had a 49% hard-hit rate and 91.5 MPH average exit velocity, but just a 3% barrel rate. He also had a 27% K rate and a .460 BABIP. So we expected a regression in batting average, but not the extent we’re seeing over the last couple of weeks. As of today, Bolte’s exit velocity average has dropped to 89.7 MPH, and his hard-hit rate to 47%, but his barrel rate has climbed over 6%. It’s a bit of a mixed bag. His velocity and hard-hit rates are both still in plus territory, and his barrel rate climbing is exactly what we wanted to see.
Bolte’s biggest concern back in week 13 was making consistent contact. His chase rate has come down nicely since then, but he’s whiffing more often. Overall, his K rate has held around 27%, which is bad, but not run-for-the-hills bad. He’s struggled with fastballs so far, but clearly has the bat speed to get around on high velocity. We need to see an increase in his contact rates, though. As you can see in the chart below, he has not improved since the last time we looked. At least he’s mostly bounced back from that late June divot.
I still really like Bolte as a target in keeper and dynasty leagues. He’s showing elite bat speed and sprint speed, and I’m willing to have some patience with his contact ability. His ground ball-heavy profile will curtail his homer output, but he has the speed to beat out grounders and make things happen on the bases. This mini slump might present the perfect buy-low opportunity, although it’s entirely possible he doesn’t improve his contact rate enough to succeed in the Majors.
Braden Montgomery, Outfield, Chicago White Sox – 10% Rostered
Montgomery had a nice start to his MLB career, slashing .239/.316/.418 with a couple of homers and an 18:8 K:BB ratio over his first 19 games in June. He hasn’t been able to keep that momentum going, however, and has hit just .216/.275/.351 with one homer and a 6:2 K:BB ratio in July. He is running a .237 BABIP in July compared to a .292 mark in June, so there may be some bad luck involved.
Not much jumps out from his underlying rates. His 20.7 K rate and 8.6% walk rate are very middle-of-the-road. Monty had a 24% K rate in the minors before his promotion, so it’s great seeing him strike out even less in the pros, but he was also walking more than 13% of the time at AAA. MLB pitchers have much better control, though, so that 8.6% rate isn’t too bad.
Really, we need Montgomery to hit for power. He isn’t going to steal bases, and even when he was batting .315 at AAA, his expected BA was closer to .250. So far, he’s posted an exit velocity of 89.6 MPH, which is just a smidge above average, and a middle-of-the-road 40.7% hard-hit rate. His barrel rate has lagged at just 3.7%, though. He did carry a 53% hard-hit and an exit velocity over 93 MPH in the minors, though, so there is power to tap into.
I also like the team context. This White Sox rebuild is looking a lot better than the last one. Murakami, Vargas, and Antonacci are all very fun players, and I think this is a lineup we’ll be happy investing in over the next few years. He might be tougher to get than Bolte, but I can personally attest to seeing Monty dropped in a 20-teamer last week (don’t worry, I’ve given him a nice home), so it’s not impossible.
Troy Johnston, First Base and Outfield, Colorado Rockies – 9% Rostered
Johnston has been a guy I’ve almost included here half a dozen times this year. He’s basically been a poor man’s TJ Rumfield. Rumfield, of course, is a poor man’s Yandy Diaz. He’s hit just 3 homers and stolen 4 bases on the season. However, he batted over .300 in April, May, and June and carried an OBP north of .360 for each of those months, including a ludicrous .402 OBP in June. He finally lands in DLRF thanks to a slow start to July, in which he’s slashed just .174/.333/.217 with no homers over 30 plate appearances.
Like Rumfield, Johnston has one of the slower bats in the league. He’s still managed a mediocre exit velocity of 89.6 MPH, but his 37% hard-hit rate and miniscule 2.2% barrel rate leave a lot to be desired. Johnston makes his living by hitting soft line drives and getting on base. His line drive rate of 32.6% is way above the league average of 24.6%. His K rate is just barely outside the top quartile, and his walk rate is just a tick above average.
Like most Rockies, he hits better at home (about 100 points of OPS), but he’s batted just .200 against lefties, so you would be wise to sit him in those situations. There isn’t a ton of upside to get excited about here, and Johnston is 29, so there isn’t likely any hidden power surge on the way. But, if you need help with batting average, this is a stable, reliable hitter that can help, and provide some runs and RBI too.
Risers
Jake Mangum, Outfield, Pittsburgh Pirates – 15% Rostered
Jake Mangum has really stepped up, while Oneil Cruz has been shelved. He’s not a power guy, but he’s hitting for average and swiping bags. He batted .329 while going 6 for 10 on the bases in June and has been even hotter in July, batting .375 and going 4 out of 5 on steal attempts so far. He’s been hitting leadoff almost exclusively, and the Pirates ended the first half as the highest scoring team in the Majors.
As I said, there is no power here. Jake is in the bottom 5% of hitters for all the power metrics I ever cite. He only strikes out in about 17% of his at-bats, but he barely walks, so he isn’t really the modern prototypical leadoff hitter. I love what he’s contributed lately, and as a Pirate fan, he’s been a ton of fun to watch. But he is going to have difficulty finding playing time once the Buccos get healthy.
The emergence of Esmerlyn Valdez likely means the Pirates will go with Reynolds, Cruz, and Valdez in their outfield once Cruz is healthy. Horwitz and O’Hearn will cover first base and DH duties. Mangum is clearly more valuable to the team than Marcel Ozuna, but Ozuna has the big contract. In an ideal world, one of these players would magically learn to play the left side of the infield, but this is not an ideal world. Due to the impending playing time crunch, I’m advising you to sell high on Mangum if you can find anyone in need of average and steals who might be less familiar with the Pirates. If they trade Valdez for bullpen help, we riot.
Tommy Edman, Second Base, Third Base, and Outfield, Los Angeles Dodgers – 21% Rostered
Edman can slot in middle, corner, and outfield and plays for the Dodgers. How is he only rostered at a 21% rate? Sure, he was injured to start the year and has only played in 22 games this season, but still, the eligibility and team context are so good. Oh yeah, he’s also slashing .343/.421/.478 with a homer and two steals since his activation. He batted .395 in June!
He’s hit for more power as a Dodger than he ever did as a Cardinal, but he has just about stopped stealing bases, and while he was a batting average asset it St Louis, he hit under .240 in each of his first two seasons in LA. That’s obviously not been the case so far this season, and his underlying rates mostly support his improvement.
Edman never had a strikeout problem, so even though his K rate is up this season, it’s still under 18%. He is, however, walking a lot more this season than he did in his two seasons on the coast. He also suffered some bad luck last year, as his xBA was .274, a full 50 points higher than his real average. His current .333 xBA is just 10 points lower than his real average. He only has two dingers so far, but his exit velocity and barrel rate are both better than they were last season, and his hard hit just barely under his 2025 mark.
There won’t be a ton of power or steals, but there should be 5-10 homers and plenty of runs and RBI with a healthy batting average. It may be possible that whoever has Edman in your league isn’t buying into his small sample. It’s not easy buying into that lineup. If you have the opportunity to do so at a reasonable cost, take it.
Heriberto Hernández, Outfield, Miami Marlins – 6% Rostered
Hernandez is finally getting full-time at-bats, and he’s making the most of it. His OPS has climbed every month of the season so far. From .474 in April to .763 in May, .849 in June, all the way to 1.322 in July. It’s pretty clear from this trend that Heriberto will post a 1.500+ OPS in August on his way to a 40-homer second half.
Okay, maybe not, but he’s been killing the ball lately. He has five homers already this month. Miami has been the hottest team in baseball, and he’s been a big reason. Heriberto has the classic deep-league profile of big power with big strikeouts. We’re talking about an exit velocity just shy of 92 MPH, a barrel rate in the top quartile, and a hard-hit rate just outside the top 10% of hitters.
But we’re also talking about a whiff rate over 32% and a K rate over 23%. On the bright side, Hernandez doesn’t chase outside pitches too often, and walks at a healthy 10% clip. I’m always willing to forgive some Ks if they come with plenty of BBs.
Hernandez showed good power in the minor leagues, with 104 homers over 570 games, and has continued that in the Majors with 23 dingers and a .793 OPS over his first 154 MLB games. The Marlins have been a top 6 offense over the last 30 days, and I expect them and Hernandez to keep hitting well (if not quite this well) for at least the near future. ‘Berto is still available in over 90% of leagues. If that includes your league, get him right now.
That’s it for week 17. Enjoy the few days of not having to worry about setting your lineup. Thanks as always for reading, and good luck out there, deep leaguers!
