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Slate Details
OwnersBox- Main slate (9 games) – starts 7:09 PM EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (9 games) – starts 7:10 PM EDT
Weather Impact
We’re back at Coors for PIT@COL, and the weather is expected to be mild with wind blowing across and slightly out to left. Light wind for TEX@KC – but blowing straight out. UPDATE: PHI@CWS PPD
Pitching
So many big names for Monday including deGrom, Wheeler, Gausman, Burnes, and others. SP1 is fairly easy, but your choice for SP2 may come down to price or relative safety.
Jacob deGrom is the clear #1 choice for the slate. KC has a couple of bats that have woken up lately, but nothing that deGrom shouldn’t be able to handle. Anytime you can get deGrom and he’s not the most expensive pitcher on the slate, just do it.
SP2 likely comes down to who you want most out of Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, or the battle between Kevin Gausman / Cristian Javier. Corbin Burnes feels like the upside choice of the bunch – he had two tough first starts vs the Cubs and the Mets, then had a solid 8-inning performance vs the Dbacks. Seattle has some dangerous bats, but they also strike out more than the White Sox/Blue Jays/Astros vs right-handed pitching. The park is also one of the safer venues of the day.
UPDATE: PHI@CWS PPD If Burnes is 2a, Zack Wheeler is a close 2b. The only knock against him is the wind blowing out to left-center and Wheeler has an equal 42% GB & FB rate vs lefties right now. He has a better 50% GB rate vs righties which could offset the White Sox power righties that they’re using lately (Eloy Jiménez is still getting back to form and Tim Anderson is out).
Kevin Gausman & Cristian Javier both feel like boom/bust plays as the Astros are tough to predict and haven’t been offering the run support they have backed their pitchers with in the past, and the Blue Jays clearly have the weapons to blow up a pitcher on a day where he doesn’t have his stuff … or they could put up a dud after a hard fought series with the Rays. However, it would not be shocking for this game to end 2-1. Maybe just bet the under?
Max Fried should be back for ATL, but could be limited, and the Padres are slightly more dangerous vs lefties, so probably better to wait and see on him. Hayden Wesneski may be tempting vs the As, but his strikeout stuff hasn’t been there lately and the As have been feisty at times.
Batting
With so many solid options for pitching – and the price tags to go with them – and Coors, bats will decide the slate. Value bats will also be important.
Rich Hill is a pitcher to target in general, so to get him at Coors is a bonus. Kris Bryant is going to be popular due to name recognition, but did you know that he has yet to actually hit a HR in Coors? All of his Rockies HRs have come on the road. Yes, it blew my mind too when I heard that. Therefore, I think you can pivot to some cheaper names that all have had recent success vs lefties.
Hill is a FB pitcher vs righties – start with Jurickson Profar up top, and watch for Ezequiel Tovar or Alan Trejo at the bottom for a wraparound stack. Elehuris Montero is also a solid power play. For the Pirates, they have a solid trio at the middle of the lineup that can hit lefties, including Connor Joe – who returns to Coors looking to get revenge on his former team, Carlos Santana, who tends to be a streaky player, but is currently hot vs lefties, and Rodolfo Castro, who has an almost 50% hard contact rate.
UPDATE: PHI@CWS PPD As mentioned above, the wind will be blowing out at Guaranteed Rate Field, and if we get the poor version of Lance Lynn, that means lefties have opportunities to take advantage. Bryson Stott has really done well taking over the lead bat for the Phillies, and his price hasn’t quite matched his opportunity up top yet. Jake Cave is buried deep in the order, but his CSW% vs righties is low, so he’s had plenty of opportunities to either get RBIs or get on base and have the guys up top hit him in. He continues to be priced low with a decent floor.
UPDATE: PHI@CWS PPD Brandon Marsh has been moved up from Cave’s spot and also been steady in getting RBIs, but priced up a bit more. Lastly, by all means, you can consider Kyle Schwarber if you have the $$$ to spare, but pitchers have been pitching around him a bit more lately, so I like the other lefty pivots on a slate like this where you’re paying for pitching. For the White Sox, watch for Gavin Sheets in the lineup, as his FB and hard hit rates is one possible headache for Zack Wheeler.
The Rangers just saw Jordan Lyles last week, and got to him for 8 hits and 4 runs. Unfortunately, they are without Corey Seager now, but there are still some solid options. Nathaniel Lowe had two hits vs Lyles last game, and is currently hitting with a 50%+ FB rate and 40% pull rate. Travis Jankowski is still hitting at the bottom of the lineup, but he still has SB upside at a value price. Josh Jung also had multiple hits vs Lyles in their last meeting.
Lars Nootbaar is back, and he’s been making up for lost time. He had a stolen base with 3 walks in his first game, and a HR yesterday. It remains to be seen whether he takes Burleson’s spot back up at the top of the lineup or not, but he’s worth playing regardless of where he’s batting. Willson Contreras & Nolan Gorman continue to be solid in the middle of the lineup with ample RBI opportunities.
One-offs:
- Nico Hoerner tends to be a steady option vs lefties, and he has SB upside. The Cubs overall aren’t great vs lefties, but it’s the As, so taking Nico as the cheapest option at the top is still a solid play.
- If Max Fried doesn’t have his best stuff right out of the gate, Luis Campusano is worth checking for in the lineup, as he’s usually min-priced and really crushes lefties. Otherwise, Manny Machado is in play, although expensive.
- Sean Murphy is really taking advantage of the temporary loss of Travis d’Arnaud.
- Chris Taylor has HRs in his last two games vs lefties. Max Muncy has also been hitting lefties well lately.
- Corbin Carroll is on a heater. If Jack Flaherty has one of his off games, Carroll will make him pay.