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Thursday’s early slate starts at 12:20 with Atlanta concluding their four-game set against Miami. Note: FanDuel’s early slate doesn’t include STL/SF or the OAK/LAA games.
The five-game main slate begins at 6:40 with the Tigers hosting the Orioles.
The weather looks mostly safe outside of some potential light rain in Atlanta.
Pitching: Early Slate
| Start (ET) | Opponent | CSW % vs LHB | PLV vs LHB | CSW % vs RHB | PLV vs RHB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:20 | Braxton Garrett (L) | at ATL | 27.50% | 5.21 | 32.20% | 5.10 |
| 12:20 | Kyle Wright (R) | vs MIA | 24.40% | 4.53 | 27.40% | 4.94 |
| 12:35 | Julio Urías (L) | at PIT | 28.10% | 5.66 | 30.50% | 5.30 |
| 12:35 | Mitch Keller (R) | vs LAD | 29.70% | 4.79 | 29% | 5.36 |
| 1:05 | George Kirby (R) | at PHI | 26.70% | 5.63 | 32% | 5.49 |
| 1:05 | Matt Strahm (L) | vs SEA | 40% | 5.51 | 31.60% | 5.29 |
| 2:20 | Seth Lugo (R) | at CHC | 29.90% | 5.30 | 27.60% | 5.16 |
| 2:20 | Hayden Wesneski (R) | vs SD | 27.70% | 5.18 | 26.90% | 5.40 |
| 3:45 | Miles Mikolas (R) | at SF | 26.40% | 4.88 | 24% | 5.12 |
| 3:45 | Logan Webb (R) | vs STL | 29.60% | 5.20 | 36.60% | 5.32 |
| 4:07 | JP Sears (L) | at LAA | 23.50% | 5.26 | 32.20% | 5.23 |
| 4:07 | Shohei Ohtani (R) | vs OAK | 29.20% | 5.26 | 31.40% | 5.17 |
Showing 1 to 12 of 12 entries
If you’re playing the early slate on DraftKings or OwnersBox, you don’t need me to tell you that you should probably start everything off with Shohei Ohtani and go from there. It’s hard to draw up a better spot than hosting the A’s.
Kyle Wright’s price is tempting with Atlanta installed as heavy favorites (-190) against the Marlins. But he’s also been very shaky, to say the least, so much so that taking a chance on a Marlins bat in tournaments might be an interesting route to take. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is only $2,900 on FanDuel.
You’ll have to pay a high price for Julio Urías but he offers a high floor against what has been a surprisingly good Pirates offense (.334 team wOBA, eighth).
What do we do with George Kirby? PLV absolutely loves him so far. But the strikeouts haven’t really been there. Despite the less-than-ideal matchup at Philly I’m leaning on the talent and thinking he’s underpriced on all three sites.
On the other side, Matt Strahm is coming off a gem against the Rockies. But I still feel like he’s a reliever trying to be a starter. It can work, but it’s not something I really want to chase after.
Seth Lugo and Logan Webb are interesting options in the mid-tier. Choosing between the two, I’d go with Webb. It’s not an easy lineup against the Cards (same with Lugo against the Cubs who’ve been tough too), but he’ll have the advantage of pitching at home at Oracle Park.
Pitching: Main Slate
A quick note on the PLV metric listed above: If you’re curious as to its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A too-brief summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
The White Sox have gotten off to a dreadful start and have a .294 team wOBA (27th). That probably changes. They aren’t that bad, right? Either way, they should be easy pickings for Shane McClanahan who, you know, just diced them up in his last start earning a ridiculous 48.9% CSW. And he needed just 80 pitches to get through six innings while striking out 10. This time, it’s at Guaranteed Rate Field, not as nice of a pitcher’s park as the Trop but it’s still pretty chilly in Chicago with temps in the mid-50s, a boost for pitching.
Choosing between Gerrit Cole and McClanahan is going to be one of the tough calls in tonight’s short slate. The Yankee ace has been fantastic: His PLA of 2.13 ranks third among all SP (300 pitches minimum). Working against him is a surprisingly strong Texas offense that has a .345 wOBA, good for fourth best despite having missed Corey Seager for a while. I’d give the slight edge to McClanahan, given Chicago’s struggles and I do like that he’s also a little cheaper on all three sites.
On the other side, don’t overlook Andrew Heaney. The Yankees just scored a dozen against the Twins, but Kenta Maeda got hurt early and it turned into one of those games. This is a very susceptible Yankee lineup. As of 4/25, only the Royals have a worse OPS from the bottom five spots of their order combined.
Kyle Gibson is a pitcher I ignore more often than not but he struck out 11 against this same Tigers lineup in his latest start. And I have to give him credit, he’s been very good this year with a PLA of 2.87. He’s a strong road favorite (-150) and very affordable on DraftKings ($7,400) where he should make for a popular SP2.
The Tigers have the worst team wOBA in baseball at .271. The Nationals are four spots ahead at .298 which should make Joey Lucchesi popular after his impressive season debut against the Giants. He’s just $6,400 on DraftKings. Conversely, if you’re looking for leverage in tournaments, it might not be a bad idea to take a chance on a Nationals bat or two.
Tyler Mahle has dealt with fluctuating velocity which is always a cause for concern. In his last start against the Nats, his fastball was hovering around 91-92. That is not what we want to see. But he gets a good matchup against the Royals who have the second-lowest team wOBA, just a few points ahead of the Tigers.
Figuring out what happens with Dylan Cease could very well end up being the key to the slate. We know he has as much strikeout upside as anyone, but his struggles with walks can sometimes lead to blowup outings. He struggled a bit in his last start at the Trop needing 101 pitches to get through four innings. So far the Rays have the top offense in baseball with a .378 team wOBA. This is a great spot to target for tournaments, either with Rays bats or taking a chance on Cease.
Bats: Main Slate
The main slate is a little tough for bats. The Twins against Zack Greinke looks like an easy call given their implied run total of just under five runs. But then there’s PLV telling us that Greinke hasn’t been bad this year judging by his 2.82 PLA. Still, the Twins are cheap at least including Jose Miranda who got on the board yesterday with a pair of home runs.
I feel a little better about the Mets who have the top implied total of the slate at just over five runs. They’ll face Trevor Williams who owns a career 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Brett Baty is very cheap, has shown plenty of power in the minors, and will have the platoon split in his favor.
The other shaky pitcher on the slate is Joey Wentz, so the Orioles could do some damage. Their only drawback is that Comerica Park can be a tough place for power especially early in the season with low temperatures suppressing offense.