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Slate Details
OwnersBox- Main slate (9 games) – starts at 1:34 p.m. EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (9 games) – starts 1:35 p.m. EDT
FD – Main Slate (8 games) – starts 1:35 p.m. EDT
Weather Impact
There is some rain coming in HOU@CHW and PHI@COL, but not sure if there will actually be a delay or PPD so approach with caution.
Pitching (Main Slate)
Ain’t nuthin’ but a G thang baby! There is a bit of a theme to what we are recommending today, see if you can pick up on it.
After an amazing month of April, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been historically bad offensively. Like worst in 115 years bad. Over the last two weeks, the Bucs have been by far the worst in baseball with a 52 wRC+ and 28.2 K% and we are back to starting every pitcher against them. Kyle Gibson has been a bit up and down in 2023, but he was pretty effective in his last start against Tampa Bay, holding baseball’s best team to two ERs in six innings. In August 2022, Gibson was dominant against Pittsburgh, tossing seven shutout innings with nine Ks. I’m thinking his line will be something similar today.
Surprisingly, the Houston Astros have also been struggling at the plate lately with just a 72 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Lucas Giolito has turned it on lately, allowing two ER or fewer in five of his last six starts and totalling 41 Ks in 38.2 innings. In his first start of the season, Giolito was solid in five innings against the Astros in Houston and I think he will expand on that outing today in Chicago. It will be a little cold and rainy on the South Side which should help keep the bats in check, so take a chance on a low-rostered Giolito on Sunday.
We have been waiting for Logan Gilbert to fully figure it out and I think he may have found it. He was electric over 6.2 innings against a dangerous Rangers lineup, allowing just two ERs with 10 strikeouts. He was almost as impressive in his previous start in Oakland and I like the way he is trending. The Detroit Tigers were diced up by Marco Gonzales and Bryce Miller in the first two games of this series and they have actually been shut out in two of the last four games after a brief offensive outburst. If you believe in Gilbert’s breakthrough over the last two games, run him out in your lineups today because he could be in for a big one.
On the other hand, Braxton Garrett has been fighting it lately and the numbers are probably a bit worse than his actual performance. Also, those performances came against a pair of hot-hitting lineups in Arizona and Atlanta. Now he is pitching at home against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that has some pop to it but is also vulnerable. Despite putting up some solid numbers in the first two games of this series, the Reds have a rough 5.7 BB% and 25.7 K% over their last two weeks. Cincy also has an 84 wRC+ against LHP this season which also will play to Garrett’s advantage. Prior to his last two starts, Garrett was pitching to a 2.70 FIP and 3.12 xFIP compared to a 9.08 FIP and 5.31 xFIP since. I think we will see Garrett revert to his form from earlier in the season and pitch well today in Miami at a very discounted price.
There ya go that’s one, two, three, and to the four!
Pitcher Pricing 5-14-2023
Hitting (Main Slate)
Despite a few struggles against good pitching to start this series, the Royals’ bats have been heating up over the last couple of weeks, good for fourth in baseball with a 127 wRC+. Colin Rea has been very underwhelming as a starter and has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three starts. Veteran catcher Salvador Perez has been leading the charge for Kansas City with five HRs in that span and Nick Pratto has also been hitting the ball very well of late. Rising stars Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and MJ Melendez all have the potential to put up big double-digit point days and round out a nice stack that probably won’t be too popular among DFS players.
Lefty Joey Wentz has been clobbered by RHH so far this season for the Tigers, allowing seven HRs in just 25.2 innings. The Mariners welcomed fellow Tigers LHP Matthew Boyd with five ERs in just 1.1 innings on Friday so I am looking to stack Seattle righties on Sunday. That means a heavy dose of Julio Rodríguez and Ty France regardless of their price, especially Rodriguez, who could be in for a monster day. Eugenio Suárez and Teoscar Hernández are always threats to go deep and if you want to go real deep into the stack, Tom Murphy provides good value at catcher and I can’t imagine too many people will be playing AJ Pollock, providing good leverage.
Other hitters to consider:
- While I’m not as stoked on the Milwaukee lineup as Kansas City’s, I’m always down to play some guys against Jordan Lyles and his 0-6 record. Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker are a nice 1-2 at the top of the lineup and I am very confident in Rowdy Tellez going yard today, as Lyles has allowed at least two HRs in five consecutive starts.
- While I don’t love the game as a whole for hitting, there are some bats in the Toronto/Atlanta game that intrigue me. Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy are going to be tough outs for Yusei Kikuchi. Kevin Kiermaier has been hitting very well lately and Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Daulton Varsho have been supplying the power for the Blue Jays.
Hitter Pricing 5-14-23