Slate Details
DK/FD – Main slate (11 games) – starts at 7:05 p.m. EDT
Weather Impact
Clear skies everywhere except in TOR@CHW, where there is rain forecasted for almost the entire night. Personally, I would stay away from this game but at the very least make sure to monitor it leading up to game time.
Pitching
I’ll admit, it is odd to see the Boston Red Sox mired at the bottom of the AL East, but that’s what happens when your offense is putting up a putrid 68 wRC+ and 29.1 K% over the last two weeks. Jon Gray hasn’t had his best stuff over his last few starts, but those have come against some of the better offenses in baseball. Against Boston I think at worst a quality start is in order and I wouldn’t be surprised if he approaches a game like he put up against St. Louis a month ago, when he allowed 1 ER in a complete game with 12 Ks.
I don’t think many people consider Pablo López to be an outstanding strikeout pitcher, but over his last four starts he has put up 34 Ks in just 23.2 innings. On Wednesday he faces a Royals lineup that has the third-highest K rate in baseball over the last two weeks. In the first two games of this series, Joe Ryan amassed 9 K’s in 6 innings and Kenta Maeda matched him with 9 in 7 innings. Look for Pablo to do the same and maybe even reach double digits.
Only the Rockies have been worse against LHP than the Milwaukee Brewers this season and unfortunately for them they face one of the best in the game today. Justin Steele has formed a nice 1-2 punch atop the Cubs rotation with Marcus Stroman and he has been especially good in his last two starts, combining for just 1 ER in 12.1 innings with 14 Ks. All the way back on April 1st he threw 6 shutout innings with 8 Ks against Milwaukee and I think that is right in line with what we should expect from him this evening.
The Pirates were able to touch up Emmett Sheehan and the Dodgers bullpen on Tuesday, but that doesn’t erase the atrocious month of June their offense had. Bobby Miller has had an up and down rookie season, but this could be an opportunity for him to bounce back from some rough recent outings. I think a number of people will be scared off by his recent form and the number of quality options on the slate, so you could get him for cheap and at low ownership.
Hitting
The clear top stacking option tonight, and any night really, is the Atlanta Braves against Cal Quantrill and the Cleveland Guardians. Since June 12th, Atlanta has scored fewer than 4 runs just once and they have scored in double digits a whopping five times.
Over the last two weeks the Braves have hit 35 HRs and stolen 17 bases along with a 149 wRC+. Find a way to get as many of them in your lineup as possible, but focus on Ronald Acuña Jr. (obviously) and Matt Olson if you have the dough and Marcell Ozuna and Michael Harris II if you’re looking to save a little bit.
The San Diego Padres are starting to hit their stride offensively and it has resulted in 18 runs over the first two games of their series with the Angels. On Wednesday they face LHP Patrick Sandoval who was bashed around for 7 ERs over 5 innings against the White Sox in his last start.
Of course you have the quartet of superstars in Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, but really Ha-Seong Kim is the one driving the offense right now. He has 5 HRs over the last couple weeks and is an excellent option from the leadoff spot. Gary Sánchez feels like a great option for a HR out of the catcher spot and Trent Grisham has also started to turn things around of late.
Other bats worth mentioning:
- The New York Mets have scored 8 runs in each of their last two games in large part thanks to the long ball, as they’ve hit 5 in that span. They battered LHP Alex Wood on Sunday Night Baseball and they get lefty Tommy Henry on Wednesday, who has allowed a HR in each of his last 5 starts. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha have always tormented lefties and Starling Marte and Pete Alonso have each homered in the last two days. Francisco Alvarez is also a great HR option as a catcher.
- Royals starter Alec Marsh had a harsh introduction to the Majors when he gave up 5 ERs in his debut against the Dodgers. Things won’t get easier against a Twins lineup that scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. I particularly like the mini-stack of Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff and Max Kepler in the middle of the lineup.
Hitter Pricing 6-28-23