Slate Details
DraftKings – Main slate (11 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Night slate (4 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.
FanDuel – Early Only slate (4 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Main slate (7 games) – starts 4:05 PM EDT; Late Night slate (4 games) – starts 7:15 PM EDT.
This article will focus mainly on the 1/4 PM slates; full 7 PM slate thoughts will be available in the afternoon in the Pitcher List Discord channel #dfs-and-bets for those interested.
Weather Impact
Rain is expected for TOR@DET, KC@CLE, & TEX@WAS – possibly significant enough to cause delays. Check forecasts close to game time or watch for updates in our #dfs-and-bets Discord channel.
1/4 PM slates:
CHC@NYY is the top game for HRs (wind out to left).
KC@CLE is a close second, with solid opportunities for both HRs & XBH (winds out to left-center).
TEX@WAS is also hit friendly, with hot temps and winds shifting from right-to-left during the game, but with plenty of carry.
STL@CHW also has HR upside (wind mostly left-to-right across field).
PHI@MIA is the most pitcher-friendly game of the slate.
7 PM slate:
Winds blowing out to right-center for LAA@LAD.
NYM@SD is the most pitcher-friendly game of the slate.
Pitching (1/4 PM)
As of this writing, nobody seems to have a clue what ARI is doing for pitching vs PIT- assuming a bullpen game since they’ve used almost everybody on the roster in recent games. It’s only mildly important in terms of hitting as Chase Field can be a hitter-friendly park, but using PIT bats would likely be a GPP-only play anyway.
If you’re playing the 1PM Early Only slate on FanDuel, just use Gerrit Cole with the $1k savings from Kevin Gausman – the rain may end up affecting Gausman’s innings if there is a delay.
For DraftKings, it’s a big 11-game slate, so there should be plenty of value bats available to pay up for pitching. Again, rain may be a factor impacting Gausman’s value as the top priced SP1, but if the weather holds up, he’s a solid play. Otherwise, Gerrit Cole or James Paxton are solid SP1s.
If rain doesn’t interfere with KC@CLE, Gavin Williams would be the ideal SP2 for DK – he pitched a seven inning, one-hitter vs KC about 10 days ago, and KC hasn’t shown many signs of improvement since then.
BAL really struggled vs the Twins (at home!) last week, so does Sonny Gray manage to hold them in check again? BAL has a slightly different feel now than before – Colton Cowser is on the roster now, they’re on a three-game road win streak, and they’re hitting better as a team. Both Gray & Bailey Ober had great starts vs BAL last week, and although Ober was still good yesterday, he had less Ks and more ERs than last time. Some regression may be in store for Gray here too.
Considering Gray’s priced up more than Tyler Wells, Wells may be the better play here – his weakness tends to be reverse split R-on-R contact, and although the Twins tend to roll out a balanced lineup of L/R, Edouard Julien is their best bat vs Rs. If Wells limits him as he has most Ls this season, he likely has the better day and could be a decent SP2 play in what should still be a pitchers duel.
Despite the large slate, there’s a large drop off in talent from the main aces – and the great matchup for Gavin – so the best pitching plays are the four primary plays. The optimal play is Cole + Gavin if the weather doesn’t interfere with KC@CLE. Likewise, if rain doesn’t interfere with TOR@DET, a large field tournament play would be Cole + Gausman and target value bats with upside at low rostership. The safer alternative would be Cole + Paxton, and that could be the likely cash duo if Gavin ends up too risky. Wells – and to a lesser extent, Gray – are slightly cheaper rostership pivots that probably have lower ceilings.
Batting (1/4 PM)
Given the differences in slates between sites, analysis will be game-by-game, in order of best matchup.
CHC@NYY – DK: Main; FD: Early Only
Stacking Yankees might be the way to go on FD for upside on a small slate – yes, the Yankees are not great right now, and that may be the best reason to go overweight on them on a four-game slate. Anthony Volpe hits Ls really well, as well as Jose Trevino. He’s mainly a one trick pony, but when Josh Donaldson makes contact, the ball usually leaves the yard – a HR at his price makes him an upside play. He also has solid hit history vs Drew Smyly if you’re into that sort of thing. Giancarlo Stanton likely ends up a popular play, but if you’re playing a stack, Harrison Bader at around the same price tends to hit Smyly’s pitch combo of Curve/Sinker better than Stanton at lower rostership.
KC@CLE – DK/FD: Main (Rain Risk)
Assuming this game plays, there are a number of CLE bats worth playing vs Brady Singer. Andrés Giménez has a hot streak going vs R pitching, and José Ramírez & Josh Naylor both hit Singer’s Sinker + Slider at .333 or better. Will Brennan is also worth playing if you prefer a value bat from this game.
TEX@WAS – DK/FD: Main (Rain Risk)
Adolis García & Corey Seager led the way yesterday with six total bases apiece vs WAS Rs, and they should do the same vs Jake Irvin today. Travis Jankowski is also a decent value play. On the other side, Lane Thomas is always in play vs Ls, Stone Garrett hits almost .500 vs Ls who throw primarily fastballs (like Andrew Heaney), and Riley Adams – if he’s in the lineup – is a cheap play that typically finds a way to get on base vs Ls.
STL@CHW – DK: Main; FD: Early Only
Especially if you’re playing Early Only on FD, STL L bats vs Touki Toussaint are quality plays for the slate. Lars Nootbaar & Nolan Gorman both hit Toussaint’s trio of primary pitches well and out to deep right, which is where the wind will be blowing. Brendan Donovan is also worth adding into a stack, as those guys will likely be hitting him home. Eloy Jiménez is the main bat to consider if you want to bring it back vs Miles Mikolas.
COL@SF – DK/FD: Main
These days there’s not much to get excited about either of these teams, but Blake Sabol had three HRs and seven RBI in two games vs Rs prior to the Gilbert CGSO, and Connor Seabold has allowed eight HRs in his last three starts.
OAK@BOS – DK/FD: Main
Yes, we’re back to picking on OAK pitching, and BOS plays really well in Fenway, so start things off with Jarren Duran who should steal a base or two to go along with quality hitting. Alex Verdugo & Connor Wong also match up well vs Paul Blackburn.
TOR@DET – DK: Main; FD: Early Only (Rain Risk)
Matt Manning has only had two starts since coming off the IL and a fractured foot, and has given up at least two ERs in each one. Prior to going on IL, he faced TOR in April, and it wasn’t pretty. George Springer, Matt Chapman, & Kevin Kiermaier all hit HRs off him in that game, and since returning from IL, he is now primarily a FB reverse splits pitcher – which should result in solid games again for Springer + Chapman. MLB All Star favorite Whit Merrifield and Danny Jansen – who smashes righty fastballs – should also benefit from the reverse split benefits of Manning.
CIN@MIL – DK/FD: Main
Games involving these two teams just seem to result in back and forth scoring, so it’s worth noting a few bats vs average pitchers on both sides – Christian Yelich continues to carry the team on his shoulders, and Joey Votto is doing the same for CIN on this road trip. Tyler Stephenson is also hitting well vs Rs and looks like a solid play vs Colin Rea.
PHI@MIA – DK/FD: Main
PHI is currently riding a 13-game road win streak, and they’re going for a franchise record if they get another win here. Both Ranger Suárez & Braxton Garrett have been solid L pitchers up until their last starts, so do they return to form, or continue to regress? This is a game that could easily either end 2-1 or 8-7. It’s a solid game to stack in tournaments, as both pitchers are priced up, but both teams are under the radar in terms of hitting Ls. For PHI, Alec Bohm & Nick Castellanos – who is 7/7 hitting sliders by lefty pitchers with five doubles & two HRs – are the two main bats to target, but a full stack can include Josh Harrison or Cristian Pache & Trea Turner. For MIA, you can build a cheap stack around Garrett Cooper, Nick Fortes, Dane Myers, and Jorge Soler, who all hit lefty sinkers + sliders with an almost .500 average.