This article will only feature plays on the main slate.
DraftKings & FanDuel – Main slate (11 games) – starts 7:10 PM EDT.
There are 8 teams still in the mix for 5 postseason spots. MIA, TOR & ARI are in the best control of their fates, as a win locks in a wild card spot for any of them. CIN, CHC & SEA need to win out and get help with losses from other teams. HOU & TEX need one more win in their last two games to lock up a spot.
No rain expected for today’s games.
Wind blowing out to center for MIN@COL and almost 80 degrees at first pitch.
Winds out to left- and hot- for NYY@KC – the park limits HRs but should allow for plenty of XBH.
Winds blowing in for SD@CWS & CHC@MIL, but the humidity + park design allows for HRs if hit well enough.
Chase Field (HOU@ARI) always has the potential for XBH.
CIN@STL, LAD@SF & TEX@SEA all slightly favor the pitcher with winds blowing in or HR-limited hitting environments.
|7:10 PM||Clarke Schmidt (R)||NYY||KC||30.00%||5.32||31.60%||4.9|
|7:10 PM||Alec Marsh (R)*||KC||NYY||29.40%||4.49||33.20%||5.27|
|7:10 PM||Jordan Wicks (L)||CHC||MIL||23.20%||4.83||24.10%||4.76|
|7:10 PM||Eric Lauer (L)||MIL||CHC||28.60%||4.88||24.00%||4.8|
|7:10 PM||Michael Wacha (R)||SD||CWS||28.10%||5.07||30.50%||5.22|
|7:10 PM||Mike Clevinger (R)||CWS||SD||32.80%||5.25||31.30%||5.13|
|7:15 PM||Andrew Heaney (L)||TEX||SEA||31.30%||5.25||31.60%||5.16|
|7:15 PM||Luis Castillo (R)||SEA||TEX||28.10%||5.01||32.30%||5.04|
|7:15 PM||Kutter Crawford (R)||BOS||BAL||23.50%||4.94||31.00%||5.21|
|7:15 PM||Kyle Gibson (R)||BAL||BOS||22.70%||4.95||29.20%||4.98|
|7:15 PM||Connor Phillips (R)||CIN||STL||30.10%||5.06||25.90%||5.1|
|7:15 PM||Drew Rom (L)||STL||CIN||28.80%||4.68||26.40%||4.9|
|7:20 PM||Joan Adon (R)||WAS||ATL||26.60%||4.72||23.20%||4.45|
|7:20 PM||Spencer Strider (R)||ATL||WAS||31.60%||5.43||34.30%||5.24|
|8:10 PM||Justin Verlander (R)||HOU||ARI||29.90%||5.18||30.40%||5.01|
|8:10 PM||Merrill Kelly (R)||ARI||HOU||25.70%||4.88||30.40%||5.09|
|9:05 PM||Clayton Kershaw (L)||LAD||SF||20.90%||4.82||29.80%||4.71|
|9:05 PM||Tristan Beck (R)||SF||LAD||26.80%||4.53||27.00%||5.42|
|9:07 PM||Joe Boyle (R)||OAK||LAA||24.50%||5.04||31.30%||5.1|
|9:07 PM||Kenny Rosenberg (L)||LAA||OAK||22.20%||5.09||24.80%||4.75|
*Marsh is likely to be today’s bulk reliever
The slate contains two marquee names in Spencer Strider & Clayton Kershaw, but it’s possible they pitch far less than their usual amount in meaningless games. Strider could be going for his 20th win making him more viable, but he’s the most expensive pitcher by far.
Even though they were eliminated from postseason contention yesterday, Michael Wacha has been really good, and the White Sox had 8 Ks vs Martinez yesterday, so he’s a solid SP1 option if you would prefer to play it a little safer. Connor Phillips is pitching in a must win game for the Reds vs a STL team that just wants this season over. The Reds won’t know the result of the MIA game until late in their own game, so they should put up a solid effort like yesterday.
Lastly, there are two solid arms in critical games that need to pitch to wins, but given the games have huge postseason implications, they should be considered risky matchups. Luis Castillo has thrown a solid 8 Ks in his last 4 outings – 3 vs AL West opponents – but he’s also given up 2 ER or more in his last 3 starts. After getting blanked yesterday, expect the Rangers to put up a more solid effort tonight. Justin Verlander gets the D-backs in ARI, and his K rates are up while his FB contact is down, but the D-backs K rate as a team vs Rs is < 20% in the last week.
Given the uncertainty of the slate and the volatility of the lineups, the best duo for DK is likely Wacha + Phillips, and if you’re playing FD, Wacha is probably the safest choice.
Since there are only a few pivotal games on this slate, those bats will be featured first as they are the most likely to get a normal amount of meaningful ABs.
HOU@ARI A win for either team locks postseason spot
Merrill Kelly’s K rates are down while hard contact rates are up. He really needs the Ks to limit the damage allowed, and he’s given up a HR in each of his last 3 starts. Recent D-backs batting suggests that Verlander should be able to pitch around this lineup, but Corbin Carroll really crushes sliders, which is worth considering in tournament lineups.
CHC@MIL Cubs must win to keep postseason hopes alive
Eric Lauer has not been good in his limited starts this season, with 7 HRs allowed in his last 3 starts (although he hasn’t seen action since May). The Cubs really need this game after letting yesterday’s game get away from them late, but their hopes of the postseason are the slimmest of the remaining teams. Do they go out with a bang or a whimper?
CIN@STL Reds must win to keep postseason hopes alive
CIN took care of business yesterday mainly vs Rs, and now will be tested again vs L Drew Rom. Rom’s main weakness is LD & hard contact from Rs, which lines up well with some of their recent power Rs. There is nice stack opportunity from 2-5 in the lineup.
Stack/GPP plays: Nick Senzel (CIN)
TEX@SEA Mariners must win to keep postseason hopes alive
Andrew Heaney has been better recently in limited use as a reliever, but it’s unknown how deep the plan is for him to pitch here. Martín Pérez could be a relief option as well, meaning it’s highly likely TEX takes their chances with Ls vs SEA. The Rangers were shut out yesterday, and now their hold on the AL West is in jeopardy, so they should try and get to Luis Castillo in any way possible. Castillo has been more susceptible to FB contact vs Ls lately but Semien has had success vs Castillo in the past.
This is looking like a bullpen game for both teams, and MIN may be more likely to go with an ever-changing platoon lineup after Polanco left to injury yesterday. The Rockies – with nothing to play for other than pride – may be better plays as they should undergo less changes to the lineup.
Now that the Padres have been eliminated, do they try and finish strong? They’ve been a tough team to trust throughout the season when they were supposed to compete, so it’s even harder to trust them now.
Base plays: None
Joan Adon gives up a fair amount of barrel contact to both sides of the plate, but ATL’s spot in the postseason is locked in. After losing yesterday, they might just try and stay sharp with some plays here to win, but they’re still priced up and their stars likely won’t see a full amount of ABs – use only if you have salary to burn.
Base plays: Eddie Rosario (ATL)
Similar to ATL, Tristan Beck has one of the worst PLV ratings vs Ls, but the Dodgers likely look to stay healthy and rested – although getting their 100th team win could be desired as well.
Base plays: James Outman (LAD)
Stack/GPP plays: Kolten Wong (LAD)