The Dynasty Baseball Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.
The Minor League portion of the pitcher performance reports has been updated for the month of July. Dynasty value changes rapidly amongst Minor Leaguers. Managers are faced with the task of making sure to not drop players struggling too early while also not missing the boat on some of the fastest risers. Below I look at four Minor League pitchers who are seeing their dynasty value trend up and four who are trending in the wrong direction.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out the rest of the performance reports as well as plenty of other content from the dynasty team.
Recapping Last Month’s Risers and Fallers:
Brandon Sproat– Sproat has pitched well since his promotion to Double-A. Through eight starts, Sproat owns a 2.05 ERA and is fresh off a strong Future’s Game appearance. His dynasty value has continued to rise.
Justin Wrobleski– Wrobleski earned a promotion to the Major Leagues pushing his dynasty value further up. Through two starts, home runs have been an issue but the Dodgers seem to be taking a patient approach with the young left hander.
Mick Abel– Things have continued to be tough sledding for Abel who just cannot seem to find a groove this year. He surrendered five earned runs with seven walks in his last start pushing his dynasty value further and further down. At this point it is fair to wonder if a change of scenery would do Abel some good.
Robby Snelling– While Snelling has not done much during official game action, he did have a scoreless appearance in the Future’s Game which is sure to generate some positive buzz. Hopefully, dynasty managers see the strikeouts return in the second half.
Pitchers with Rising Dynasty Value
Joey Cantillo– CLE
The Guardians are one of those teams who always have a pitching prospect ready to come up. Shane Bieber, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber, and Mike Clevinger all became staples during the past decade. More recently, the team has promoted pitchers like Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee to the Major Leagues showing off their endless supply. Lo-and-behold, Cleveland has another pitching prospect knocking on the door of a promotion. Joey Cantillo is the latest pitching prospect to see his name creep up prospect lists and garner more attention in dynasty circles. The former 16th-round pick is turning into one of the gems of the 2017 draft and could make his Major League debut later this summer.
Pitching in Triple-A, the road to the upper levels of the Minor Leagues has not come without adversity. After being drafted by San Diego, Cantillo made his way to High-A prior to the pandemic. Then, like most prospects, Cantillo lost a year of true development due to the cancellation of the Minor League season. He was then traded to Cleveland but struggled to stay healthy after that. In his first season with Cleveland, Cantillo pitched just 13 innings thanks to shoulder and oblique injuries. 2022 was a little bit better but Cantillo still lasted just 60.2 innings.
Nobody would have blamed Cleveland if they looked to turn Cantillo into a reliever at this point. Instead, they stuck with the young left-hander and he is making it count. After pitching a career-high 119.1 innings last season, the injury bug crept back into the picture to start 2024. Cantillo was a forgotten prospect in dynasty circles, but that is all changing now. With health comes dynasty value. That is especially true when prospects are performing on the diamond. Cantillo returned to the mound on May 30 and surrendered seven earned runs in his first two starts. In the six starts since, Cantillo has allowed just six runs total. His strikeout rate has jumped over 30% during that period and he looks in full command.
His health and strong string of performances are encouraging, but his arsenal is also worth paying attention to. Cantillo’s velocity is nothing to write home about, but Cantillo is effective in other ways. Coming from the left side, Cantillo gets over seven inches of extension allowing his four-seam to play faster than his velocity suggests. His extension helps to add two miles per hour to this pitch. This extension also helps his changeup which is by far his best offering. Cantillo relies on this pitch nearly 30% of the time and opponents are whiffing over 55% of the time so far this season. Overall, opposing batters are batting .167 with a .222 slug off the pitch, but it has been especially effective against lefties. Lefties are batting just .125 with a .125 slug against Cantillo’s changeup. This has a chance to be one of the premier changeups in all of baseball.
Guardians LHP prospect Joey Cantillo enjoyed a nice bounce back start tonight for Triple-A Columbus.
5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB 8 K
Fastball was up to 97 mph. Had a feel for all four pitches tonight, especially the changeup.
📹: @indyindians pic.twitter.com/mfyCIeet2Q
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) June 25, 2023
With the Guardians looking to solidify their rotation for the second half, they could call upon Cantillo to help provide a boost. This is not to say Cantillo is a perfect prospect. He lacks consistent feel for his breaking pitches and struggles to limit the walks at times. However, there is no denying his dynasty value has been trending straight up over the past month. Finally healthy, he could continue to take big strides in his development this season.
Jacob Misiorowski– MIL
Right around this time last year, Jacob Misiorowski saw his dynasty value skyrocket. Sure, Misiorowski was a popular pitching prospect even before then, but his performance in the Futures Game put the entire dynasty world on notice. His showed off his elite fastball velocity blowing it right past some of the game’s best hitters. The former 2nd round pick entered 2024 as one of the game’s top pitching prospects. Many hoped that he would make his Major League debut this season. For those who have followed my work, my skepticism of Misiorowski has been consistent. However, in the past month there is no debating his dynasty value is back on the rise.
The skepticism around Misiorwski boils down to one thing: his control. There is no denying that Misiorowski has front-of-the-line stuff. His fastball consistently sits in the upper 90s and he touches triple-digits with ease. His unique arm angle creates even more deception and gives the pitch a sense of rise at the top of the zone. He pairs this with a slider which takes more of a gyro shape and is effective against both lefties and righties. Both pitches are plus-plus offerings and he mixes in a curveball as well to keep batters off balance. The issue for him throughout his Major League career has been walks. Entering the 2024 season, Misiorowski owned a career walk rate of 14.9%. These high walk rates have prevented Misiorowski from working deep into games thus limiting his total innings. Last season, Misiorowski only made it through five innings in four of 20 starts. While the pure stuff is top of the line, there is unquestionable relief risk in Misiorowski’s profile.
Early on in 2024, the story was more of the same. Misiorowski had no issues striking batters out. Through his first seven starts, Misiorowski’s strikeout rate actually increased up to 36.7%. The issue is that his walk rate also spiked up over 17%. He lasted five innings in only one of those starts. Five more starts in and Misiorowski’s ERA still sat at a respectable 3.88, but he was averaging under four innings per start. Relief risk.
After allowing six earned runs in his start on June 12, everything seemed to finally click for Misiorowski. In his last five starts, he has been nothing short of dominant. After pitching six innings just one time in his career, Misiorowski has pitched six innings in three of his last five outings. He has allowed one earned run or less in four of those five starts. Of course, Misiorowski’s strikeout rate has jumped even higher and sits at 38% over this period. This is all great, but what really has Misiorowski’s dynasty value jumping is the improved control he is showing off. Across these five starts, Misiorowski is walking less than eight percent of the batters he is facing.
If these control and command gains stick, Misiorowski will be on the fast track to Milwaukee. Even more, Misiorowski will quickly become the best pitching prospect in baseball. For the last year or so, his profile has been one filled with volatility. High risk, high reward. The relief risk has been exceedingly apparent for the past year, but if he can put it all together he has the stuff to be a fantasy ace. This past month could be the first sign of his potential coming to fruition. He could find his dynasty value rising even as the season progresses.
Honorable Mentions:
Jarlin Susana– WAS
The Juan Soto trade looks like a massive win for the Washington front office. CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore are solidified starters, James Wood is the top prospect in baseball, and now Jarlin Susana is seeing his value trend higher. Dynasty managers have been in on Susana since before the trade but now the hype is becoming real. Susana’s four-seam fastball has always garnered attention thanks to its ability to sit in the triple digits. Control has been the biggest issue, but over his last seven starts, Susana’s walk rate sits below 10% with a strikeout rate of over 40%. His ERA over that period is a miniscule 1.03 which earned him a promotion to High-A. At just 20 years old, there is plenty of time for Susana to continue developing. The sky is the limit here and his dynasty price tag continues to grow more expensive with each start.
What A Debut!
Jarlin Susana earned a win in his High-A debut last night, striking out five in 5.0 innings (2 R). Susana has not allowed more than four hits in a game since May 24, putting up these numbers over that 7 G span: .145 opp AVG, 54 K, 35.0 IP pic.twitter.com/lc1MZ2pEHm
— Nationals Player Development (@Nats_PlayerDev) July 10, 2024
Julian Aguiar– CIN
Some pitchers like Susana are flashy. High volatility often offers more upside, but that also creates value on pitchers who are more consistent. Julian Aguiar fits that build and may offer more upside than meets the eye. Aguiar has excellent control and a deep arsenal of pitches. He commands his 94 mph sinker well throwing it for strikes and generating plenty of weak contact. His slider is the true money pitch and is generating a whiff rate north of 40% through four Triple-A starts. He also mixes in a curveball and changeup to keep opposing batters off balance. Over his past 12 starts, Aguiar owns a 2.82 ERA and a walk rate less than six percent. He is unlikely to ever post eye-popping strikeout rates but his dynasty value is certainly trending up. A few more starts like his last few and he will find himself pitching in Cincinnati before the season is over.
Pitchers with Falling Dynasty Value:
Blade Tidwell– NYM
Injuries during his sophomore season pushed Tidwell into the second round of the 2022 draft where the Mets were more than happy to take him. Since joining the organization, Tidwell has quickly worked his way through the Minor League system. The glaring yellow flag in his first full professional season was a high walk rate. Between High-A and Double-A, Tidwell walked 12.9% of the batters he faced leading to inconsistent results. He was hardly on dynasty managers’ radars entering 2024, but that is when things started to change.
The Mets sent Tidwell back to Double-A to start the season and he looked like a different pitcher. In seven appearances, Tidwell was dominant on the mound. He allowed one earned run or less in five of seven appearances with at least nine strikeouts three separate times. Equally encouraging was Tidwell’s ability to work deep into games. Tidwell pitched at least five innings five times while at Double-A. The Mets had seen enough to push him to Triple-A and dynasty managers were catching on too. Managers rushed to pick Tidwell up off of waivers as he turned into one of the fastest rising prospects in dynasty.
After two strong starts to begin his Triple-A tenure, things have taken a turn for the worse. Tidwell has allowed at least three runs in all five starts since with a 7.23 ERA during that span. Tidwell’s strikeout rate is down noticeably from 29.9% in Double-A all the way to 15.8% in Triple-A. Even more concerning is his walk rate. After seeming to solve his control issues early this season, his walk rate has grown to worse than ever before. Since being promoted to Triple-A, Tidwell is walking over 17% of the batters he has faced. Yikes.
The part of Tidwell’s profile that got dynasty managers so excited was the potential for high strikeout rates and low walk rates. With his walk rate ballooning, Tidwell’s long-term value hinges on his ability to generate swings-and-misses. So far in Triple-A, his arsenal has been extremely underwhelming. Tidwell relies heavily on his four-seam/cutter combination struggling to find consistent feel for his breaking pitches. His slider is the breaking pitch he feels most comfortable with, but only generates a whiff 19% of the time. Looking at his PLV data, it paints an even more concerning picture. His four-seam grades out as just a 4.63 and his xZone rate is 50.5%. In comparison, Carson Whisenhunt who has his own issue with walks, has an xZone rate on his fastball of 54.9%. The PLV on his slider grades out as just a 4.83. Tidwell is not throwing enough strikes to get chases and has seen his walk and strikeout rates suffer as a result.
After being one of dynasty’s biggest risers throughout the first month of the season, Tidwell’s dynasty value has certainly come back down to earth. Triple-A has been a wake-up call that progression is not always linear. Just because Tidwell was dominant at Double-A does not mean he is automatically on the fast track to the Major Leagues. Hopefully better things are ahead for Tidwell in the second half.
Dylan Lesko– SDP
The Padres selected Dylan Lesko 15th overall in the 2022 draft. At the time, Lesko was viewed as one of the top high school arms in the draft and the fit in San Diego seemed perfect. From a talent perspective, Lesko was a near lock to go in the top 10. However, Tommy John surgery interrupted his final high school season leading to his slight fall down draft boards. The rehab process kept Lesko sidelined until June of last season when he finally made his professional debut. He wound up pitching across three levels last season firing 33 innings in total. Still just 20 years old, many in the dynasty community were excited to see what Lesko had in store for 2024.
While the back-of-the-baseball-card numbers were underwhelming last season, Lesko’s return to the mound inspired plenty of confidence. Most notably, his fastball velocity did not suffer at all in his return to the mound. His four-seam sat comfortably in the mid-90s and his changeup looked as good as ever. He finished the season with a strikeout rate of over 35% speaking to the upside in his profile. The only concern was his walk rate. Lesko walked over 15% of the batters he faced last season. While concerning, it is important to remember that he was making his professional debut. Not only was it his debut, but it was his first time touching the mound in over a year. Rust was inevitable and the upside was clear as day.
Unfortunately, things have not materialized in 2024. Lesko’s control issues are looking more like a true weakness than rust. Instead of improving, Lesko’s walk rate has gotten even worse this year. Through 15 starts at High-A, Lesko is walking 16.3% of the batters he has faced. He has walked at least two batters in every start this season including walking 4+ five different times. The biggest issue has been Lesko’s inability to get chases on his secondary offerings. Even when Lesko is able to get ahead, batters are laying off of his curveball forcing him to come in the zone. Once Lesko gives in, they are punishing his pitches. Lesko has surrendered nine home runs on the year and his ERA currently sits over six.
The story for Lesko is not all doom and gloom. Lesko does not turn 21 until September and has plenty of time to continue developing. With less than 100 professional innings under his belt, there remains room for optimism. Lesko has struck out nine batters twice in the past month and still has plus stuff. The issue for dynasty managers is that Lesko is looking less and less like a sure thing. Concerns over the effectiveness of his secondary pitches combined with his suspect control have his dynasty value heading in the wrong direction. Lesko still has the upside to warrant being rostered, but is no longer a top 100 prospect in my books.
Honorable Mentions:
Ricky Tiedemann– TOR
Another month, another injury for Ricky Tiedemann who seems unable to stay healthy. The Blue Jays top pitching prospect has as much upside as anybody in baseball. Talent is one thing, but for a starting pitcher to be able to withstand the wear of a full professional season is a different story. This is the area where Tiedemann has struggled and the relief risk in his profile continues to grow larger. Tiedemann returned to the mound on June 14 after spending nearly two months on the IL. In his first start back at the Triple-A level, Tiedemann was removed with forearm tightness. The injuries are piling up and his dynasty value continues to drop. Even when Tiedemann has been on the mound, he has seemed unable to find any sort of consistency. There is a chance the Blue Jays could move him into a relief role once he is healthy again.
Tink Hence– STL
Tink Hence has a captivating mound presence. With the high-stirrups and plus stuff, it is easy to dream about him anchoring a spot in the Cardinals’ future rotation. The biggest question throughout Hence’s professional career has been whether or not he can make it as a starting pitcher. His smaller stature has led to concerns over his durability and that is playing a factor once again in 2024. Hence posted a 3.14 ERA through his first 10 starts before leaving his start on June 5 after just two innings. Hence quickly returned to the mound on June 23 but lasted just one inning before being removed again. Although this injury (which is being reported as cramping) does not seem serious, it adds fuel to the fire for those concerned over his future durability. With health risks becoming more of a factor, Hence’s future outlook has more questions than answers. This is negatively impacting his dynasty value. Hopefully, we see Hence return to the mound healthy in the coming weeks.
Feature Image by Michael Packard(@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by Ric Tapia / Icon Sportswire