The Dynasty Baseball Performance Report is a regular series, highlighting each position and providing insight into the risers and fallers of both the major leagues and prospects.
The minor league portion of the pitcher performance reports is updated for August. While the regular season is winding down, there is no slowing down in dynasty. Dynasty value changes rapidly amongst minor leaguers. Below I look at four minor league pitchers who are seeing their dynasty value trend up and four who are trending in the wrong direction.
Be sure to head over to the Pitcher List dynasty page to check out the rest of the performance reports as well as plenty of other content from the dynasty team.
Recapping Last Month’s Risers and Fallers:
Joey Cantillo – Shortly after last month’s article, Cantillo was promoted to make his major league debut. Cantillo made three starts posting a 6.23 ERA. The results were disappointing, his control was spotty, and the stuff seemed average at best. His dynasty value has taken a hit over the past month and he is now back in Triple-A.
Jacob Misiorowski – After a string of strong performances, the Brewers decided to move Misiorowski to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. The Brewers are in the hunt for a World Series and shifting Misiorowski to the pen could give them another lockdown option for October. This has not done much to change his dynasty value. Relief risk has always been present in his profile but the team has done this with Freddy Peralta and Corbin Burnes before. Worked out pretty well for them those times.
Blade Tidwell – Things have not gotten any better for Tidwell in Triple-A. He continues to struggle on the mound and has been inconsistent since his promotion. His dynasty value continues to fall.
Dylan Lesko – Just after publishing this article, Lesko was part of a trade that sent him to Tampa Bay. Joining the Rays organization instantly boosted his dynasty value although he is still struggling on the mound. In three appearances with the Rays, control continues to be an issue as Lesko is walking over 20% of the batters he has faced.
Pitchers with Rising Dynasty Value
Bubba Chandler – PIT
The initial belief was that Bubba Chandler could become a two-way player at the major league level. The Pirates drafted, and then signed, Chandler to a well-above-slot-value deal after selecting him in the third round of the 2021 draft. He made his professional debut at the plate in 2021 and then on the mound in 2022. The results in both facets of his game were inconsistent, to say the least. At the dish, Chandler was hitting home runs at a high rate, but also striking out nearly 40% of the time. On the mound, he was striking batters out with ease, but also allowing far too many free passes. The Pirates continued this two-way experiment through the 2022 season before transitioning Chandler to the mound full-time in 2023. Since then, his dynasty value has taken off.
Pitching is an art. While a player may have all of the arm talent in the world, learning how to control pitches, deceive hitters, and sequence your offerings is a different skill set entirely. Chandler played both football and baseball in high school and was recruited to do both in college at Clemson. After signing with the Pirates, he was focusing on developing both his offensive skills and his pitching ability. Not until 2023 did Chandler, for the first time in his life, focus solely on pitching.
While the arm talent has always been apparent, Chandler took significant steps forward last season in his development as a true pitcher. During the back half of last season, it was easy to see Chandler’s transformation from a thrower to a pitcher. Through his first 11 starts last season, Chandler owned a 6.91 ERA with a walk rate of 15.8%. Across his final 14 starts, his ERA dropped to 3.12 and his walk rate lowered all the way to 6.8%.
Chandler has carried this momentum from 2023 over into 2024. After a few rough starts to begin the season, Chandler has been lights out as of late. From May 29 forward, Chandler owns a 2.23 ERA with a 2.60 FIP. His strikeout rate over that period sits at 31% with an impressive 4.2% walk rate. After turning Jared Jones into a top-end dynasty asset, the Pirates’ pitching development team seems to be right back at it again with Chandler. The team liked what they saw so much that they decided Chandler was ready for Triple-A. This has sent his dynasty value skyrocketing.
The promotion to Triple-A can do one of two things to a player’s dynasty value. Not only does the competition increase, but Statcast data is also available. Some players have their stuff exposed as mediocre after cruising through lower levels of the minor leagues. In the case of Chandler, his stuff did just the opposite. Through two starts, Chandler’s stuff has gotten incredible reviews from models and scouts. For starters, his four-seamer has averaged over 97 mph on the gun with 16.3″ of induced vertical break (iVB). He is consistently locating this pitch at the top of the zone and it has graded out as a 5.42 on the PLV scale. For reference, Gerrit Cole’s four-seamer last year only graded out as a 5.28. Chandler is also generating a whiff rate of 39.3% on his slider and 33.3% on his changeup.
13 scoreless innings at Triple-A has sent Chandler’s dynasty value through the roof. The back of the baseball card stats look good but even more important are the underlying metrics that make Chandler so exciting. He has an excellent fastball, plus secondary offerings, and his control continues to improve as he focuses solely on pitching. There is a chance we could see him in Pittsburgh before the end of the season.
Kumar Rocker – TEX
The Rangers shocked the world when they selected Kumar Rocker at third overall in the 2022 draft. This was just one season after the Mets drafted Rocker at 10th overall before backing out due to concerns over his physical. While Rocker’s draft stock remained high, not many in the industry expected the Rangers to use the third overall pick on him. Rocker lit up the radar gun at the AFL in 2022 leading many to buy in the dynasty community to buy into the hype. The hype was short-lived though as Rocker lasted just six starts in 2023 before undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Early on in 2024, Rocker was a forgotten prospect. Sure, everybody in dynasty circles knows the name Kumar Rocker, but nobody was particularly enamored with his dynasty value. The majority of opinions landed somewhere in the camp of: “He has a nice fastball and slider combination, but one team passed on him in the draft due to injury concerns and then he underwent Tommy John surgery one year later.” While that still may be the case, Rocker’s recent run of success is doing wonders for his dynasty value. Since returning from the IL on July 5th, Rocker has been absolutely dominant on the mound. His ERA sits down at 2.45 with 29 strikeouts in 21 innings. He has allowed just one earned run across his last four starts.
There are still plenty of unknowns with Rocker’s profile. Will his arm hold up across a full season? That is still to be determined, but so much of dynasty value can be gained or lost based on groupthink. Rocker’s name has been one of the most popular across X in recent weeks. While I could go into detail about what makes Rocker’s arsenal so intriguing, I think Lance Brozdowski does an excellent job of summing it up in the video below:
One minute on each of my top 20 pitching prospects.
In that minute, I'll hit on a) what makes them distinct and b) what's their biggest risk.
Easy way to get up to speed on a bunch of future aces.
Here's a tease on #Rangers Kumar Rocker, full vid linked below! pic.twitter.com/W1BQO59cs0
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) August 15, 2024
The more innings that Rocker throws, the higher his dynasty value seems to rise. Now could be the last chance for managers to get in at a reasonable price for the Rangers’ new top pitching prospect.
Honorable Mentions:
JR Ritchie – ATL
JR Ritchie was one of the biggest breakout pitchers early on in the 2023 season. He made four starts in Low-A showing off increased velocity and plus stuff before Tommy John surgery ended his season prematurely. Ritchie returned to a professional mound on June 17 and returned to Low-A after three starts at the Complex League. Since returning to Low-A, all of the buzz around Ritchie has been overwhelmingly positive. He owns a 2.36 ERA through five starts and has struck out 36 batters in just 26.2 innings. Ritchie has shown plus command of his fastball and curveball while showing off an improved changeup. Ritchie just turned 21 in June and is once again returning to the prospect spotlight.
Eiberson Castellano – PHI
A deep-cut name catching some dynasty attention is Eiberson Castellano. Castellano signed with the Phillies out of Venezuela back in 2018 but had his professional debut delayed until the 2021 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Now 23 years old, Castellano is becoming a prospect that dynasty managers should certainly know. After starting the year in High-A, Castellano has been absolutely dominant through five Double-A starts. He has thrown at least five innings in each outing including a ten-strikeout performance this past weekend. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90s, his changeup is filthy, and his curveball has good movement. This is certainly a prospect for those in deep dynasty leagues to know.
Pitchers with Falling Dynasty Value:
Chase Petty – CIN
Chase Petty was the return the Reds got back in return for Sonny Gray prior to the 2022 season. The young right-handed pitcher had just been drafted in the first round of the 2021 draft and was viewed as a pitcher with front-end potential. Coming out of high school, Petty was already hitting impressive marks with his four-seam velocity leading many to dream of his potential at the major league level. Despite hitting 102 mph prior to the draft, Petty’s velocity dipped when faced with the duration of holding up for a full professional season. Following the 2023 season, the bar had been lowered to a back-end starter with plus control and mediocre stuff. His dynasty value was not viewed with the same optimism it once was, but that changed this past spring.
After arm injuries shortened Petty’s 2023 season, Petty went to work all off-season. Petty trained with a performance center all off-season recapturing some of the charisma that made him such a special prospect. Videos were swirling on Twitter about Petty’s rediscovered velocity. He was sitting 98 mph on the gun comfortably and even seemed to hit triple digits for the first time in years. Combining this velocity with his impressive walk rates from the last few seasons returned Petty to “dynasty darling” status. A steady drumbeat of positivity all off-season sent Petty flying up dynasty ranks and landed him as one of my three breakout prospect picks for the 2024 season.
Unfortunately, things have not worked out quite as well as many hoped. This is not to say Petty has been bad in 2024. Pitching in Double-A, Petty is 9-3 through 22 starts this season. His ERA sits at 4.65 with a 3.82 xFIP. Petty has been perfectly fine. However, after the expectations were raised throughout the off-season his dynasty value has clearly taken a hit.
The dream was for a spike in Petty’s strikeout rate. Throughout his professional career, he limited walks but his strikeout rates always left dynasty managers wanting more. With more velocity, the expectation was that this number would rise, but it has stayed in line with his career numbers. His strikeout rate on the year is 22.1% which is two percent lower than last year. The velocity gains he showed this off-season have shown up in flashes but he has not proven the ability to maintain his velocity consistently. To make matters worse, Petty’s control has dropped off a bit. After posting walk rates of 7.7% and 5.5% across the last two seasons, Petty’s walk rate has jumped up to 10.7% this year. With mediocre strikeout rates, Petty’s ability to limit free passes was the only thing keeping him relevant in most dynasty leagues. Without that, his value drops off significantly.
Petty shows up in this month’s edition of the article due to shine wearing off. Back in March, Petty was one of the most sought-after pitching prospects in dynasty. Despite a slow start, his name was still carrying significant weight in the dynasty community around June. At this point though, the shine is wearing off and dreams of Petty reaching his full potential are dwindling. His performances on the mound have been solid over the past month. Across his last five starts, he owns a 2.96 ERA with a 26.2% strikeout rate. This is much better than what we saw earlier this season but his walk rate is still up at 11.2%. Dynasty value is about more than just on-field performance. Petty’s value has dropped slowly all season and has continued to fall over the past month.
Ricky Tiedemann – TOR
Ricky Tiedemann was featured in the honorable mentions section of last month’s fallers and yet again has seen his dynasty value take a hit. If you flash back to two seasons ago, Tiedemann was considered to be one of the few “can’t miss” pitching prospects in baseball. Tiedemann, Andrew Painter, Grayson Rodriguez, and Eury Pérez were often grouped together in prospect rankings. Side Note: Somebody please please please protect Rodriguez as injuries have plagued the other three pitchers. The truth is how could you blame anybody for ranking Tiedemann that highly? At just 19 years old, Tiedemann dominated three different levels of the minor leagues looking virtually unhittable. His fastball sat in the mid to upper 90s and his control was excellent. Unfortunately, it has been all downhill ever since.
Injuries have derailed Tiedemann’s career. Shoulder issues have led to arm issues, and Tiedemann underwent Tommy John surgery at the end of July that could keep him sidelined through the 2025 season. Since his dominant 2022 season, Tiedemann has only pitched 61.1 innings in total. Even once Tiedemann returns to the mound, the Blue Jays will have to exercise caution to avoid arm injuries. Dynasty managers are unlikely to see Tiedemann handle a full-season’s workload until 2027 at which point he will be 25. For a while, it looked like Tiedemann could become a fantasy star before his 21st birthday. His dynasty value was through the roof but as they say, “there is no such thing as a safe pitching prospect”.
Tommy John surgery last month certainly sent Tiedemann’s dynasty value falling further down but the concerns run deeper than that. Even when Tiedemann has been on the mound, it has been a struggle. While the high strikeout rates and pure stuff have remained prevalent, he has lost the control that made him such a high-upside player. In the small sample sizes from the past two seasons, Tiedemann’s walk rate has ballooned opening up additional relief risk. Tiedemann has all of the arm talent in the world but is more likely to end up in the bullpen than the starting rotation. This possibility has grown into a reality as the 2024 season has moved along diminishing Tiedemann’s dynasty value.
Honorable Mentions:
Brock Porter – TEX
Brock Porter was viewed by many as one of the biggest steals of the 2022 draft. Texas was able to lure him away from college signing the righty to a $3.7 million deal despite drafting him in the fourth round. The hype surrounding Porter was especially significant in the dynasty community. As mentioned in a previous edition of this article, Porter’s 2024 season got off to a disastrous start. The start was so poor that the team sent him down to their developmental camp to work through his mechanics and reassigned him to the complex league on June 28. There he made four starts pitching to a 7.36 ERA with more walks than strikeouts leading to the Rangers shutting him down once again. Success in baseball can be as much mental as physical and Porter’s confidence is clearly shaken. He is no longer a sought-after prospect in dynasty circles.
Chase Hampton – NYY
Things were finally trending in the right direction for the Yankees’ top pitching prospect. Chase Hampton missed the first several months of the season with a shoulder injury but returned to the mound on July 1st and was back in Double-A on August 2nd. After 18.2 innings, Hampton is back on the IL; this time with a groin injury. Expectations were high for Hampton after he posted a 3.63 ERA in 2023. Instead, 2024 is looking more and more like a lost season for the young righty. Hampton is now 23 years old and will likely be under tight inning restrictions in 2025. The best-case scenario for dynasty managers is that Hampton is unleashed by 2026 which has his value trending in the wrong direction.
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photo by Richard Rodríguez / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)