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Evaluating Batted Ball Distribution for Prospects

Evaluating how batted ball data impacts future performance of prospects

Last June, I dove deep looking at how batted ball data can impact a player’s performance. The goal of that article was to extrapolate batted ball data and see if you can make assumptions about a player’s future performance based on their batted ball distribution. In particular, the goal was to look at how ground ball rates can impact offensive production. This article is a continuation of that same idea. While it is easy to get caught up in name value and minor league production, dynasty managers should be wary of prospects who run high ground-ball percentages as they have a higher chance of struggling at the major league level.

 

Recapping and Expanding the Data

 

The first edition of this article was a lot of math. This one does not dive quite as deep but still provides some additional research to the previous idea. First though, here is a quick recap of what the findings were. Batters were broken up into two separate sections: an “ideal” swing path and a “not ideal” swing path. The findings revealed that batters who posted a line drive rate of at least 22% and a ground-ball percentage of less than 45% had a statistically higher wRC+ than batters with a ground ball rate of over 50%.

Some of the minor league hitters who fit that category at this time last season were Adael Amador, Brooks Lee, Jackson Holliday, Nelson Rada, Brady House, and Justin Crawford. Amador, Lee, and Holliday have all spent time in the major leagues this season and they all posted a wRC+ below 65 in their small sample sizes of debuts. Again, the article emphasized that not all hitters who run high ground-ball rates are destined to struggle at the major league level. There is just a statistically higher chance that they do.

With the off-season upon us and a bit more time on my hands, I decided to dive further. How have minor league batters with “not ideal” swing paths fared upon their promotion to the major leagues? Using FanGraphs, I pulled a list of minor league batters with 120+ at-bats and who posted a ground ball rate above 50% in the minors. The date range for this research spanned 2015-2023. Next, data was pulled from all major league hitters from 2015-2024. 58 batters from the minor league data set also had major league data. Their average wRC+ was 91. 76% of those batters had a wRC+ below 100. In comparison, there were 97 batters with ideal swings. Their average wRC+ was 98. Only 69% of those batters had a wRC+ below 100.

Statistical significance tests were not performed on this, but this supports the initial findings that batters with ground ball rates of over 50% struggle more offensively at the major league level.

The key now for dynasty managers is to use this data. Target players with ideal swing paths and sell high on prospects that run concerningly high ground ball rates. The rest of this article highlights a few big-name prospects with concerning swing paths and also a few underrated prospects who have ideal swing paths.

 

Prospects with Concerning Swing Paths

 

Justin Crawford – PHI

 

Justin Crawford is the poster boy for a not-ideal swing path. This is why, despite being a Phillies fan, Crawford was highlighted in this article last year, and was mentioned in my 2024 prospect bust predictions. On the surface, Crawford has been excellent in his short professional career. After slashing .332/.392/.467 in his first professional season, Crawford continued his strong play this year. At 20 years old, Crawford split time between High-A and Double-A where he slashed an impressive .313/.360/.444. Dynasty managers are enamored by his elite speed (42 stolen bases) and high batting averages. The name value that comes with being Carl Crawford’s son alone is enough to get the attention of the dynasty community. His athleticism, production, and potential are all undeniable.

Despite this, dynasty managers should still proceed with caution. After running a ground ball rate of over 70% in 2023, Crawford did improve upon this number in 2024. Unfortunately, his ground ball rate was still up over 60% which is one of the highest in all of minor league baseball. His speed undoubtedly helps Crawford run higher BABIPs on his ground balls, but a BABIP north of .370 is completely unsustainable. As Crawford faces better defenders, his BABIP is going to come down. A high ground-all rate also limits the game power Crawford can tap into. He hit just nine home runs this season and does not project to hit more than 15 with his current batted ball distribution.

 

Henry Bolte – OAK

 

Sometimes, reevaluation of prospects is necessary. Henry Bolte was one of my favorite prospects entering the 2024 season. He was clearly not a top-10 prospect, but he felt like a perfect breakout pick. Bolte has all the athleticism in the world with power and speed that could turn him into a 30/30 threat at the major league level. He was coming off a fantastic second half which saw his strikeout rate drop significantly. Power/speed combinations are what dynasty managers fall in love with, and Bolte profiled to be the next big thing. In all fairness, Bolte did have a very strong season. Between High-A and Double-A, Bolte hit 15 homers, stole 46 bases, and posted a 136 wRC+. On the surface, it would be easy to take the win here and mark this breakout pick as a success.

However, easy victory laps are not why we are here. Bolte’s 2024 season was actually more concerning than encouraging. After making strides in the strikeout department in 2023, Bolte continued to struggle in this area in 2024. His strikeout rate on the season was 34.7% and this profiles to be an issue that will plague Bolte throughout his career. On top of that, Bolte did not get the ball in the air more in 2024. Part of Bolte’s appeal is the 30+ homer potential. However, Bolte fails to get the ball in the air consistently which is why the 15 he hit this year was a career high. Bolte’s ground ball rate remained up above 54% this season landing him in the “not ideal” swing path bucket. Strikeouts and a poor swing path make Bolte a difficult prospect to advocate for.

 

Welbyn Francisca – CLE

 

Welbyn Francisca does not come with quite the prospect pedigree as the first two names on this list. Francisca is an 18-year-old shortstop in Cleveland’s organization who is starting to gain more notoriety in the dynasty community. After dominating the DSL last season, Francisca continued his success in full-season ball this year. Splitting time between the Complex League and Low-A, Francisca slashed an impressive .326/.411/.474. He hit seven homers and stole 19 bases in just 71 games. Production like that makes Francisca an attractive deep-league target for many dynasty managers across the community.

However, Francisca is yet another player falling into the “not ideal” swing bucket. Francisca’s ground ball rate spiked this past season after posting excellent line drive and batted ball data in the DSL. While the batting average looks great, his .379 BABIP is an unsustainable mark for him to repeat. What makes Francisca an even more concerning prospect than the first two listed is his lack of physical projection. While Crawford and Bolte each have swing path concerns, they stand at 6’2″ and 6’3″ respectively. Both have the power potential to become elite fantasy assets if they can develop in their respective organizations. Francisca stands at 5’8″ and does not come with the same ceiling as the other two. Lacking a high ceiling and possessing more risk than many realize, Francisca is a prospect to avoid buying in on.

 

Underrated Prospects with Ideal Swing Paths

 

Jimmy Crooks III– STL

 

The Cardinals have had a few catching prospects over the years that have excited dynasty managers. First, it was Carson Kelly, and now more recently, Iván Herrera but neither one has been unable to fulfill expectations. Here we are again with another catching prospect in Jimmy Crooks III. However, unlike Kelly and Herrera, Crooks is flying completely under the radar. Crooks was drafted in the fourth round back in 2022 and put together a solid first season in 2023. He hit .271 with 12 homers and a 122 wRC+. Not eye-popping numbers, but certainly solid for a catching prospect. Crooks built off that solid first season and exploded in 2024. His batting average jumped to .321 and he hit 11 home runs despite playing in just 90 games.

A large reason for Crooks’ success is his incredible ability to hit line drives. His line drive rate of 20.2% was solid in 2023, but pails in comparison to the 31.8% rate he posted in 2024. Crooks just has a knack for hitting. He drives the ball to all fields and profiles to be a doubles machine. He has strong plate discipline that allows him to be selective and has no trouble punishing mistakes pitchers make. Crooks is unlikely to ever land inside a top-100 list due to his age, position, and lack of draft pedigree. However, he could easily be a .280 and 15-homer hitter at the major league level. Crooks could be the catcher of the future in St. Louis, and fantasy managers could see him in the major leagues as early as 2025.

 

Kyle Karros – COL

 

Nobody talking about Kyle Karros‘ debut season should be criminal. The 2023 fifth-round pick was nothing short of spectacular in his first season with Colorado’s organization. In 123 games at High-A, Karros slashed .311/.390/.485 with 15 home runs and 12 stolen bases. The son of former Dodger Eric Karros, and brother of Dodgers’ farm hand Jarred Karros, Kyle wasted no time acclimating himself to professional baseball. He took home Northwest League MVP honors, yet is going virtually unnoticed in dynasty communities—time for this to change.

Karros stands at 6’5″, with impressive raw power. His current swing focuses more on driving balls into the gaps than on driving them out of the ballpark. Karros utilizes a closed stance and sprays the ball all over the field. However, when he gets ahold of one, his power is effortless. With just a small toe tap, Karros can drive the ball out to all parts of the park and could turn into a 25-30 home run bat with some tweaks to his approach. For now though, Karros falls into the ideal swing group. His high line drive rate should lead to excellent batting averages and help him sustain success in the upper levels of the minor leagues. A future home ballpark of Coors Field makes it even easier to dream of Karros’ potential. He is underrated and undervalued across the dynasty community, but that should change in 2025.

 

Matt Lugo – LAA

 

The Angels have a negative connotation surrounding them. As the organization has struggled for much of the past decade, this can create some value for their up-and-coming prospects. Zach Neto put together a strong 2024 and Nolan Schanuel has potential to become a reliable fantasy asset. The acquisition of Matt Lugo at the 2024 trade deadline creates another opportunity to buy low on an Angels prospect who is being widely overlooked. Flashing back to 2022, Lugo put up an excellent season for Boston in High-A. He hit 18 homers, stole 20 bases, and hit .288 across 114 games. His success did not continue in 2023, but Lugo has bounced back in a big way this season. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Lugo hit 17 home runs with 16 stolen bases. Lugo also walked over 10% of the time while batting .287.

Lugo’s offensive production stems from his excellent batted ball data. For starters, and the reason he finds himself in this article, Lugo’s line drive rate skyrocketed in 2024. Lugo posted a line drive rate of over 30% this season which propelled his .337 BABIP. While a line drive rate of 30% likely unsustainable, his BABIP is nothing out of the ordinary and could be considered a bit low considering that line drive rate. The other part of Lugo’s game is his natural feel for pulling the ball. Lugo pulled the ball nearly 50% of the time this past season helping his power to play up. This is the primary reason Lugo saw his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio take a significant jump this season. The changes Lugo made this year seem to be legit and he is an excellent sleeper prospect as identified by Martin Sekulski.

 

Photo by https://www.mlb.com/milb | Adapted by Carlos Leano

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