Wells Bells

Austin Wells (NYY): 2-4, 2 HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.

Austin Wells, who the Yankees drafted 28th overall out of Arizona State four years ago, continues to build an impressive rookie campaign. His .343 wOBA and 124 wRC+ would rank third and second among catchers if he qualified. He’s also done a terrific job defensively, an area that scouts considered a weakness in his early days. According to Baseball Savant, his 10 catcher framing runs trail only Patrick Bailey’s 14; Cal Raleigh is also tied with Wells at 10.

Last night, the left-handed hitting backstop went yard on a changeup from Erick Fedde, breaking a 2-2 tie in the third. He completed his first multi-homer game by victimizing righty reliever Riley O’Brien in the eighth with a two-run shot to almost the same spot in right, although a bit deeper at 412 feet (104.1 EV).

Wells’ success as a rookie is perhaps a touch understated given that he’s hitting .256 with 12 home runs across 326 PA. Good, but not necessarily the type of totals that would grab the eyeballs of most fantasy managers. Still, he’s right up among the best rookies of the year. His 3.4 fWAR ranks third among rookies behind Jackson Merrill (4.1), Colton Cowser (3.5), and Masyn Winn (3.5). Wells’ recent insertion as the cleanup hitter has given the Yankees some much-needed punch after their big two hitters, with his 124 wRC+ ranking third on the team if you ignore Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s 175 during his brief tenure as a Yankee. His PLV profile checks out, too with above-average scores in power (105) and decision value (104).

The only real blemish is his splits against left-handers. In short, they’re bad and it is partly why he’s lost some playing time to light-hitting Jose Trevino, who is a defensive whiz. While I’d be willing to wager his true splits aren’t as bad as the results indicate since he’s had all of 57 PAs against lefties, it remains something you’d like to see improve. Regardless, Wells should have plenty of RBI opportunities hitting behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto and looks poised to be a difference-maker at a thin position in the season’s final weeks.

Let’s see how the other hitters did Friday:

Garrett Mitchell (MIL): 2-4, 3B, HR, 3 R, RBI, BB, SB.

This was Mitchell’s line from Game 2 of the doubleheader. Carson Spiers entered in the sixth inning and was greeted rudely by Mr. Mitchell who blasted his very first pitch, a hanging sweeper, 398 feet to straightaway central (106 EV). A fractured left index finger cost Mitchell about two months, but he’s played well with a .328 wOBA and 110 wRC+ across 141 PAs. Mitchell’s two home runs over his past two games aren’t a fluke as he has the requisite bat speed for big power. However, he’s capped in the department due to a 99th-percentile ground ball rate. His 31% K rate (81 contact ability via PLV; 100 is average) presents another stick in the mud. Still, he’s shown a pretty sharp eye at the plate with a 99th percentile chase rate. And, yes, he can fly. Mitchell might lose a few at-bats against lefties, but he should get a lot of at-bats with Christian Yelich down for the year. There’s plenty here worth chasing.

Dylan Crews (WSN): 1-5, HR, R, RBI.

Speaking of young upside players, here’s another. About one year after being drafted second overall out of LSU, he’s doing things in the bigs. Not too bad. His second dinger came courtesy of a 91 mph heater at the letters from Shota Imanaga and sailed 404 feet to left-center (106.9 EV). The righty-hitting Crews posted a .352 wOBA and 105 wRC+ with ten stolen bases and eight home runs across 238 PAs with Triple-A Rochester before getting called up.

Sean Murphy (ATL): 1-2, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB.

Boy, did Murphy need this or what? Hitting eighth, the former A’s backstop went back-to-back with Orlando Arcia in the third, who later went yard again for his first multi-homer game in four years. The shot came against a 3-2 heater, Ranger Suárez. Murphy faded badly down the stretch last year and has had a rotten year thus far, but as someone with a career .333 wOBA and 115 wRC+, it might not be surprising to see better results the rest of the way. Still, Travis d’Arnaud isn’t going away, and shouldn’t either given his .332 wOBA on the year.

Ramón Laureano went 0-for-4 but continues to play every day, and has produced enough to be an alternative in deep leagues. He hit fifth last night ahead of Michael Harris II. 

Freddie Freeman (LAD): 1-5, HR, R, 3 RBI.

Freeman did his damage in the first inning, taking a fastball from Zac Gallen just over a leaping Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and over the Chase Field sign in left-center for his 18th of the season. Freeman’s over-the-fence power might be relatively underwhelming compared to other top sluggers, but he remains one of the game’s best overall hitters. His .367 wOBA ranks 15th among qualified hitters. The home run last night was especially good to see in his first game back after sustaining a hairline fracture in his right middle finger. And, hey, guess who had another jack and a bag? Yep, Shohei Ohtani is up to 43 home runs and 43 stolen bases. Wow.

Julio Rodríguez (SEA): 1-2, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB.

J-Rod’s 13th of the year came at the expense of 22-year-old rookie left-hander Samuel Aldegheri, baseball’s first Italian-born player, against whom the Mariners tagged for seven runs, two of them earned. On the eve of the final month, Rodríguez’s .302 wOBA is a little hard to believe compared to his lofty expectations. He has all the talent in the world. But he’s gonna one of the more fascinating players to reconcile after a down year. He’s gonna go on a rampage in September, isn’t he?

Corbin Carroll (ARI): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB, SB.

Speaking of first-round quandaries, Corbin Carroll’s recent surge will make him an enigma next year. Regardless, that recent surge has been spectacular. He’s hitting .278 with 10 home runs in August, good for a 1.026 OPS. If you’re a fan of the PLV apps, you’ll want to check out his rolling charts. In short, his recent power surge is backed by good batted ball metrics. Last night’s dinger came at the expense of Public Enemy Number One, that being a hanging curveball from Clayton Kershaw, who left shortly thereafter with a toe injury. All the recent home runs aside, he’s only swiped two bases this month, so there’s that.

Manny Machado (SDP): 3-5, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.

The Padres torched Taj Bradley at the Trop for eight earned runs on eight hits in just 2.1 innings. With the Padres already up 4-0, Machado blasted his 23rd to right-center on a high heater from Bradley (415 feet, 105.3 EV). It feels like we haven’t talked much about Machado this year. Maybe he just hasn’t had big games on Fridays this year. Either way, he’s compiled a .335 wOBA over his last two seasons combined, a little lower than his career pace of .355, which might suggest he’s on the backslope at 32, or at the very least, no longer in baseball’s upper echelon. Still, his batted ball metrics remain strong (108 power via PLV), so you can’t rule out a big finish.

JJ Bleday (OAK): 2-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, 4 RBI.

So much for the A’s being a total pushover. OK, sure, maybe their pitching is rough, but their .307 team wOBA isn’t all that bad, and firmly in the middle of the pack at 17th in the major leagues. Lawrence Butler has been making a ton of noise lately. But so too has this man. Bleday’s 20th homer came on a hanging slider from Jon Gray that he yanked just over the right field fence (369 feet, 99.7 EV). Bleday’s batted ball metrics don’t jump off the page (62nd percentile xwOBACON, 99 power via PLV), but he’s been playing every day and producing. Brent Rooker also went yard twice in the A’s 9-2 blowout over the Rangers and is eighth among qualified players with a .941 OPS.

Jhonkensy Noel (CLE): 1-5, HR, R, 2 RBI.

This line sums up the Jhonkensy Noel experience: home runs or bust. He swings and misses often (31.2% K rate) and makes questionable swing decisions (58 DV via PLV) but when he does make contact, look out. Last night, Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski found that the hard way, and saw Noel park his 96 mph heater into the left-field beaches for a go-ahead, two-run shot in the fifth. The poor baseball traveled 450 feet with an EV of 111.2. Andrés Giménez doubled Mlodzinksi’s pain by following Noel’s dinger with his sixth homer of the year and later swiped his 25th base in a 10-8 barnburner over the Pirates.

 

Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X)