For the purposes of this article, a “Sleeper” to me is anyone who provides positive value at their current ADP, with this group of six representing the best value this fantasy season. That’s why there’s a range from Devin Williams to Robert Garcia. On the flip side, a “Bust” is someone I don’t see providing positive value at their current ADP. The closers who I don’t see living up to their current price/ADP. So again, there’s a wide range here from someone like Andrés Muñoz, who’s one of the first four relievers off the board, to someone like Will Vest, who is going near pick 300. And I’m not completely out on any of the busts. If I’m in a save-only draft where Carlos Estévez falls near pick 200, I’d strongly consider him, but that scenario is highly unlikely to happen, hence the term “Bust” (or “Fade”). I’ve ranked them in order, not by ADP, but by how much I value them compared to the market, or on the flip side, how much the market values them more than I do. The blurbs are from my Top 300 Reliever Ranks post last month, but there are updates that pertain to their individual closer situations as well.
Sleepers (Targets)
Griffin Jax, Tampa Bay Rays (226 ADP)
Jax is coming off a crazy unlucky 2025 campaign, which saw him post the worst ratios of his reliever career, but there were still plenty of numbers that give us hope for a 2026 bounce back (2.21 xFIP, 27.6% K-BB, 36% CSW, 5.42 PLV to name a few). The sweeper is still amazing, coming in at 88 MPH with over 3000 rpm spin rates. His 92 MPH changeup is elite as well, generating a 27% swinging strike rate. He threw the four-seamer less last year as it was getting torched often (.426 xwOBA, .620 xSLG), and while it can be a plus pitch (97 MPH, 1.5 HAVAA), Jax struggled to command it up in the zone (45% hiLoc), leading to a lot of hard contact against. That will be something to watch for this season, but either way, Jax will certainly factor into a high-leverage role, perhaps as the 1A closer option, and should be a (the?) popular bounce-back candidate.
As we enter March, Jax is in the driver’s seat to see the bulk of the save chances in Tampa Bay. Edwin Uceta is dealing with a cranky shoulder, Garrett Cleavinger is the only lefty in this bullpen (and a potential trade candidate?), leaving just Jax and perhaps Bryan Baker as the favorites for saves here. I’m a big fan of Baker’s, don’t get me wrong, but Jax has a legitimate chance at finishing as a top-10 reliever in standard leagues this year… and don’t think he needs 30 saves to do so.
Pete Fairbanks, Miami Marlins (147 ADP)
Fairbanks looked fairly mediocre in the first half of 2025 but finished the year strong with a 2.56 SIERA and 27% strikeout-minus-walk rate over the second half. Most importantly, he made it through the year healthy, finally. The reason for that second-half resurgence comes from the introduction of a new cutter that he started throwing about 13% of the time. The metrics aren’t exactly off the charts on the pitch, and it may be because hitters just weren’t aware he had the pitch in his bag, but the pitch dominated down the stretch (66.7% O-Swing, 26.2% SwStr, 11.1% ICR, 0 hits allowed). It’s obviously a really small sample (just 42 pitches thrown), but it’s at least a promising development for a reliever that was trending the wrong way earlier in the season. The changeup has been another pleasant addition, and the slider is still great. IF he can get some velocity back and/or keep that four-seam at the top of the zone more than 50% of the time (he did improve this by 15% last year), we may be back in elite closer territory.
There may be some concern that the Marlins will similarly deploy their bullpen as they did last year, with no reliever having a set role. There’s already been some talk of Fairbanks potentially pitching in the 8th or 7th innings of games as well, but two things to remember here. The Marlins didn’t have a Pete Fairbanks in their bullpen last year; they had no “strictly one-inning reliever who ALSO had closer history and stuff.” Fairbanks is the only reliever in this bullpen who is limited to one inning of work at a time and who also has more than 22 saves in their career (he had 27 last season).
Robert Garcia, Texas Rangers (273 ADP)
Garcia put together a respectable 2025 (3.92 xFIP, 32.2% CSW) with his new team, but was never able to lock down the closer role as the team used multiple relievers in the ninth over the course of the year. He finished with nine saves, though, and as of now is the only returning reliever with any “closer experience”. The four-seamer isn’t great, but he’s made it work the past two seasons regardless. The changeup is still solid, and he upped his slider usage with his new team, which makes sense as it might be his best pitch (5.31 PLV), and he was able to find the zone more often with it.
The early news out of Rangers camp is that Garcia and Chris Martin are the favorites to win the closer role, but the early edge should go to Garcia. Martin is great, but he’s had trouble staying healthy at his old age, and he’s also never had 5+ saves in a single season. Last year the team preferred Garcia, Phil Maton, and Shawn Armstrong over Martin in the ninth inning, and now two of them are gone.
Devin Williams, New York Mets (92 ADP)
Williams had a few bad stretches in what was mostly a good season. In fact, he finished with a 3.58 ERA (2.09 SIERA), 0.93 WHIP, 38.3% K, 20.7% SwStr, and 117 Stuff+ over his final 50.1 innings from May 5th onward. The ERA is still high there, but it’s a result of some really bad luck, and nothing to do with Williams stuff declining or anything to worry about for this season. Everything under the hood matches what Williams was doing the previous five seasons, so as long as he doesn’t remain incredibly unlucky, he should be back to his normal self in 2026. I also love the fact that he signed in New York after all the discussion about him not being able to handle the pressure there. It seems like he’s motivated to prove the haters wrong and go back to being one of the top five closers in baseball again.
We are already seeing Williams ADP climb as he is unquestionably the Mets’ closer entering the season. He’s working on a cutter and slider to pair with his changeup and fastball as well.
Daniel Palencia, Chicago Cubs (159 ADP)
Palencia was finally able to turn his nasty stuff into results last season (3.06 SIERA, 20.9% K-BB, 116 Stuff+) and eventually took over the closer role, tallying 22 saves. The biggest change for Palencia last year was just his ability to find the zone more often, with a 50.3% Zone rate as well as a 50.7% True First Strike rate (TF-Str%). That should help keep his walk rate under 10%, and the pure stuff is good enough to dominate from there. His four-seamer averaged 99.6 MPH last year with a -4 VAA, so Palencia sat at the top of the zone over 60% of the time with the pitch. He did allow five home runs on the pitch, four of which were in the lower half of the zone, though (the fifth was middle high to Cal Raleigh). He was also able to throw the slider consistently for strikes, although I wonder if it may have been just a little too much in the zone? The slider should be more of a chase/whiff-getter for Palencia.
I’m a little confused as to why Palencia is going as low as he is. Craig Counsell has already come out and said he is the closer, and he looks like himself early on this spring. For an up-and-coming reliever, with the type of upside Palencia possesses, AND who is locked into a closer role on a relatively good team…you’d think he’d be higher than the 18th closer off the board.
Ryan Walker, San Francisco Giants (205 ADP)
It was not the follow-up season Walker had hoped for after his 2024 breakout, but despite the down year, Walker is still the favorite to open the year as the team’s closer…as things stand now. Despite the down year, he still did a solid job missing bats (30.6% CSW) and producing weak groundballs (87 MPH average exit velocity with a 50% ground ball rate), which is kind of his thing. I’d rather see him in a setup role, but his ADP should be fairly low, so he could be an intriguing mid to late-round pick this year if the team doesn’t add any bullpen help before opening day.
Look, I don’t love Walker as a closer, but there just are no other options in this bullpen at the moment. The Giants didn’t add anyone who is a threat to Walker, and he seems determined to take that role back this year and run with it. I don’t love it, but if you need a second reliever after pick 200 and Walker is still there, he’s worth a shot.
Busts (Fades)
Carlos Estévez, Kansas City Royals (114 ADP)
Estévez led the league in saves with 42 and finished with a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He also ranked 142nd in xFIP, 135th in SIERA, 120th in strikeout rate, 136th in swinging-strike rate, and 142nd in CSW amongst 147 qualified relievers. I talk about the bad in Estévez’s profile all the time, so let’s focus on the positives here. Estévez still managed a 1.06 WHIP, which is impressive no matter how much luck we factor in. His HardHit rate at 38.1% is on the above average side, and while he never gets ground balls, his outfield defense should be fine as long as Kyle Isbel remains in centerfield. His 53.7% Z-O% in the second half also wasn’t the worst; it’s actually close to league average. Estévez actually has a pretty OK fastball too; he can sit 96 MPH, and it has solid shape, but he just has trouble locating it at the top of the zone. The slider is OK as well, an average secondary is better and more useful than a poor secondary, right? The changeup ain’t great, but it’s just a third offering anyway. It’s not impossible for Estévez to find the same luck again this season, but that being said, I can’t endorse this (especially with Kauffman’s new dimensions), so draft at your own risk.
The news this spring has not been great for Estévez, as he has just been sitting at 89 MPH with his fastball, which, even for someone who is a slow starter like himself, has to be a bit concerning. It’s just another reason to fade Estévez in drafts this year.
Raisel Iglesias, Atlanta Braves (111 ADP)
Iglesias had a rough first half in 2025 but bounced back nicely in the second half to finish with 29 saves and an overall great season (21.4% K-BB, 33.6% CSW). Iglesias made a big pitch mix change in the second half, throwing his fourseam 16.4% more, and honestly, it’s weird to me that this worked because it’s a fairly average fastball at best. It did hold a 33.6% CSW for the year, as I guess most hitters were just sitting offspeed against him. In fact, Iglesias gave up 9 hits, 6 of which were home runs, on just 95 sliders thrown last year, while the changeup was a little better, allowing 14 hits on 271 pitches, but 9 of those hits went for extra bases. Between his fastball and sinker (thrown 598 times), Iglesias allowed only 19 total hits, with just 5 being extra base hits.
Even the sinker held a ridiculous 39.6% CSW, mostly due to a 34.6% called strike rate. Again, it’s not a crazy moving sinker or one that he even locates at an elite level, but hitters just didn’t want to swing at it for some reason (everyone was just waiting on hanging sliders?). The changeup does remain his best pitch (26.2% SwStr, 52.6 O-Swing, 5.08 PLV), but it did get hit around last year, so I have to wonder “what happens if hitters just start being aggressive against his fastballs (which he threw 68.9% of the time in the second half) instead of waiting on his offspeed stuff?” Will Iglesias be able to adjust back?
His closer experience in Atlanta may give him the first shot at saves, but if Iglesias gets off to a rocky start again (it happened not only in 2025, but also in the first two months of 2024 as well), the team could quickly move to Suarez in the closer role. Keep in mind, even after bringing back Iglesias, Atlanta made an aggressive offer to sign Edwin Diaz (offering 5 years), who would be the closer right now had he chosen more years (Atlanta) over a higher AAV (Dodgers). While the team considers Iglesias their closer right now, they clearly don’t have the most faith in him to lock down the role, and neither do I.
Kenley Jansen / Will Vest, Detroit Tigers (155 / 272 ADP)
Jansen still proved he could hang in this league as a closer (114 Stuff+), and he enters 2026 needing just 3 saves to surpass Lee Smith as third all-time and is just 24 saves away from 500. Just like it did for Mariano Rivera, Jansen’s cutter has carried him in the later stages of his career, and while the strikeout rates have declined over the past nine years (from 42.2% in 2017 to 24.4% in 2025), Jansen is still capable of giving you average or better ratio help and has had at least 25 saves every year since 2012 (excluding 2020). For someone who allows a ton of hard contact, especially in the air, the fit in Detroit is ideal for Jansen, and the only question that remains is what exactly his role will be?
Vest was the Tigers’ most consistent reliever throughout the entirety of last season, finishing with a 3.03 xFIP and 18.7% strikeout-minus-walk rate, as well as a surprising 59% ground-ball rate as he featured his sinker more. Despite a four-seamer (still his primary despite the sinker usage increase) that could play up at the top of the zone, Vest only had a 43% high location on the pitch, which could be the reason behind the hard hit metrics being so high on the pitch. A.J. Hinch likes flexibility in his bullpen, so it’s possible Vest can still break double-digit saves, but I’d only be comfortable drafting in holds leagues for the time being.
I know Jansen is likely to get the majority of save chances here, but there are other concerns with him (health, age, stuff decline) that also factor in. 155 is just too rich for me. Will Vest going about 75 picks earlier than Kyle Finnegan is also an interesting trend, as Finnegan to me is the next in line here. Finnegan is getting paid like a low-end closer, and Vest is much more versatile in that bullpen as someone with plenty of experience working multiple innings. I still like Vest a lot in holds leagues, but I can’t see him cracking double-digit saves unless both Jansen and Finnegan miss significant time.
Trevor Megill / Abner Uribe, Milwaukee Brewers (135 / 200 ADP)
Megill was able to crack 30 saves without breaking 50 innings on the season, and was dominant in doing so (31.3% K, 33.7% CSW, 128 Stuff+, 5.48 PLV), but we’ve yet to see him stay healthy for a full season. Even with the unconventional postseason usage, I think Megill should be given the first chance at closing out games this year, but Uribe will be there to push him or take over if he misses time (or is traded). His fastball/curveball combo is one of the best in baseball (the best if you ask PLV), but I’d like to see Megill locate his fastball a bit better (42% hiLoc) to fully take advantage of his electric stuff.
Uribe posted very similar numbers to Megill (30.2% K, 33.5% CSW, 117 Stuff+) and can also touch triple digits, but the big reason for his 2025 breakout was the command. Getting under 10% with his walk rate was a huge deal, and he finished with almost 30 more innings than Megill, which led to a better season, counting stat-wise. The slider in particular took a step forward, as Uribe has been able to improve the pitches zone rate by 11% each season since debuting in 2023. Uribe topped 80 innings last year, which is way more than his previous high of 53.2 innings in 2023. He only managed 23 innings in 2024, and before 2023, he totaled just 65 innings between 2018 and 2022, so let’s hope there are no ill effects of this year’s big workload this season for Uribe.
At their current price, I am likely out on both Megill and Uribe. In holds leagues, they are easily top 10-12 options, but the uncertainty of how things will play out in this bullpen if Pat Murphy gets his way has me concerned. I’d consider Megill if his price gets below 150, and Uribe if his price dipped closer to 230, but the matchup-based bullpen makes it hard to rely on either one as your top reliever.
Andrés Muñoz, Seattle Mariners (55 ADP)
Muñoz had a dominant 2025 (32.1% K, 34.3% CSW), although things began to slide in the second half as his velocity declined. Is the decline something to legitimately worry about, though?
- First Half: 99.1 FS (35%), 98.3 SI (13%), 87.2 SL (49.4%)…22.5% K-BB, 16.5% SwStr, 2.84 SIERA
- Second Half: 97.8 FS (36%), 97.1 SI (10%), 84.7 SL (51.8%)…20.5% K-BB, 15.6% SwStr, 3.16 SIERA
- Postseason: 97.4 FS (21.4%), 96.4 SI (6%), 83.9 SL (72.6%)…11.1% K-BB, 14.2% SwStr, 4.37 SIERA
The good news is that the slider remains highly effective, and he can still find success sitting at 97 MPH. The slider isn’t the most dominant pitch from a metric standpoint (average break, velocity, and only a 37.4% Zone rate), so if the velocity doesn’t return and hitters start adjusting to the high slider usage (a pitch not thrown for strikes), this could become an issue. I’m not completely out on Muñoz, but given his early ADP, I’d probably let someone else draft him and take my chances with one of the other top seven or eight closers.
Muñoz fastball has looked good this spring, averaging 98.3 MPH so far, so that is certainly promising. I still think his ADP is too high given the names going after him, but I am not as worried as I was previously.
