Dynasty managers are always trying to find the next… fill-in-the-blank. Every dynasty manager wants to find the next Juan Soto or Ronald Acuña Jr. The kind of prospect that can come up and take your dynasty team to the next level. We often get so caught up in the upside certain prospects possess that we fail to recognize the risk in this profile. The purpose of this upcoming article series is to help dynasty managers dive into what their prospects could become and how that translates to fantasy value. Looking at historical seasons, floor and ceiling comps were identified as to what five of the biggest name first-base prospects could become in the coming years.
First Base Dynasty Comps
Nick Kurtz – ATH
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2018 George Springer
.265 AVG | .346 OBP | .434 SLG | 22 HR | 6 SB | 19.7 K% | 10.3 BB%
Nick Kurtz is not guaranteed to become a superstar. However, Kurtz is a near-lock to become a productive major league player. Kurtz has great discipline at the plate and should post strong walk rates. Despite his size being the first thing many notice, Kurtz stands out with his hit tool. This provides Kurtz with a stable floor. Kurtz’s size gives him plenty of projectability, but the development of his game power is a question. Kurtz drives the ball with tons of line drives and focuses on contact instead of selling out for power. The home run totals might be a bit lower than what you would expect from a 6’5″ first baseman.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2018 Paul Goldschmidt
.290 AVG | .389 OBP | .533 SLG | 33 HR | 7 SB | 24.3 K% | 11.4 BB%
A lofty comparison to prime Paul Goldschmidt is exactly what a prospect of Nick Kurtz’s caliber deserves. There is not a more polished first-base prospect than Kurtz in all of baseball. Kurtz utilizes a patient approach at the plate and is more than willing to take his walks. He has excellent barrel control and contact skills providing him with a stable floor in his batting average. With his contact skills and batted ball distribution, Kurtz could finish toward the top of baseball in batting average. His power is excellent and although he may not have 40+ home run upside, he profiles as a great all-around player for fantasy managers to rely on. Goldschmidt finished as the 20th-best hitter in baseball that year. Safe to say that is a fun projection to deploy when discussing the future Athletics’ first baseman.
True Projection:
Even with Kurtz going to the Arizona Fall League, the professional sample size is still extremely small. Despite this, dynasty managers should have confidence in his future value. Kurtz’s polish is something that cannot be taught. He has the physical tools to become a great power hitter and the baseball instincts to post strong batting averages. The only thing fantasy managers probably will not get is many stolen bases. Even with a relatively high floor, Kurtz still projects closer to his ceiling. .275 with 25 homers and a strong walk rate already feels like a safe projection.
Jac Caglianone – KCR
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2024 Bryan De La Cruz
.233 AVG | .271 OBP | .384 SLG | 21 HR | 5 SB | 27.3 K% | 4.7 BB%
The comp of Bryan De La Cruz is obviously not exact as I do not envision Jac Caglianone roaming the outfield for the Royals. However, from a fantasy perspective, this is the perfect comp. Caglianone has hit tool concerns. His strikeout rate could easily sit in the upper-20s or low-30s putting a cap on his batting average. The home runs are going to come, just as De La Cruz hit 21 last year, but his hit tool could prevent him from getting more. Even at his floor, Caglianone still profiles to be a fringe fantasy asset although this is far from what dynasty managers are expecting.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2015 Todd Frazier
.255 AVG | .309 OBP | .488 SLG | 35 HR | 13 SB | 20.2 K% | 6.5 BB%
The Royals selected Caglianone sixth overall for a reason. He is never going to hit .300, but he has significant raw power. If he can limit the strikeouts, Caglianone should post respectable batting averages while also stealing a handful of bases. He is a great athlete and could finish toward the top of the league in home runs even while playing his home games at Kauffman Stadium. According to FanGraphs Auction Calculator, Todd Frazier’s 2015 season was good enough to land him as the 33rd most valuable hitter in fantasy. That is the kind of upside a player like Caglianone possesses.
True Projection:
The professional sample size on Caglianone is still relatively small. Even with some struggles, dynasty managers should certainly project production closer to his ceiling than his floor. This is a first-round pick who put up incredible numbers at the University of Florida while serving as a two-way player. Yes, his hit tool is still raw. However, the new ability to focus only on hitting should help him further develop his contact skills. He has game-changing raw power and could easily hit 30+ home runs in a season.
Bryce Eldridge – SFG
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2017 Mark Trumbo
.234 AVG | .289 OBP | .397 SLG | 23 HR | 1 SB | 24.7 K% | 7.0 BB%
The slash line of Mark Trumbo’s 2017 season fit nicely although the comp is not perfect. Similarly to Caglianone, the biggest concern with Bryce Eldridge’s future production comes down to his hit tool. Since moving Eldridge to hitting full-time, the Giants have pushed him aggressively through their system. High BABIPs and home run totals have overshadowed alarming strikeout and swinging strike rates that could lead to low batting averages in the major leagues. One of the real concerns (and why Trumbo is not a great comp) is Eldridge’s platoon issues. Eldridge slashed just .211/.272/.316 against lefties last season while hitting .319/.406/.584 against righties. Eldridge’s struggles to handle left-handed pitching could turn him into a platooning first base option similar to that of Ryan O’Hearn.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2019 Pete Alonso
.260 AVG | .358 OBP | .583 SLG | 53 HR | 1 SB | 26.4 K% | 10.4 BB%
If everything clicks, Bryce Eldridge could be a star. Eldridge is already knocking on the door of the major leagues at just 20 years old. Similarly to Caglianone, he only recently became a full-time hitter speaking to both his athleticism and the upside still left to be unlocked. Standing at 6’7″, Eldridge has effortless power. He could lead the league in home runs for years. His average is unlikely to stand out but with his power, he does not need it to. In 2015, Pete Alonso was the 15th most valuable hitter in fantasy. That is the upside Eldridge possesses.
True Projection:
For starters, 53 home runs is much more likely than 23 home runs. Eldridge hit 23 home runs last year in just 116 games. The expectation for fantasy managers to have is that Eldridge will turn into a 30+ home run bat. As far as batting average, I lean the opposite. The biggest concern with Eldridge is the whiff rate. The platoon issues only compound that. Eldridge struggling to hit for average is a realistic outcome and one fantasy managers need to plan for. There is still a lot of time for Eldridge to develop which is why even with this concern he remains a consensus top-100 prospect for dynasty managers.
Xavier Isaac – TBR
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2022 Trent Grisham
.184 AVG | .284 OBP | .341 SLG | 17 HR | 7 SB | 28.6 K% | 10.9 BB%
This projection seems harsh at first glance. However, the hype around Xavier Isaac has been confusing since he landed in the prospect busts article last off-season. Isaac hits moonshot home runs. With this kind of power, the red flags all over his hit tool have seemingly been ignored. For starters, Isaac struck out over 33% of the time between High-A and Double-A last season. During his time in Double-A, his strikeout rate sat over 40% with a swinging strike rate of 20.9%. Isaac is overly patient at the plate which is why Grisham’s profile works so nicely. He is going to walk and get on base a respectable amount, but his strikeout rate could easily keep his batting average down. Isaac hit .211 in Double-A last season despite a .377 BABIP. Similarly to Eldrige, Isaac also has platoon issues and slashed only .236/.342/.321 against lefties last season. In an organization that loves to platoon players, this should be a major concern.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2018 Bryce Harper
.249 AVG | .393 OBP | .496 SLG | 34 HR | 13 SB | 24.3 K% | 18.7 BB%
Isaac’s hit tool issues are likely to always be an issue. However, scouts do not just hand out 80-grade power to anybody. Even with a mediocre batting average, Isaac could still turn into a significant fantasy asset. Bryce Harper’s patient approach with some strikeout issues fits perfectly into Isaac’s mold. He has the chance to be an on-base machine at the major league level with excellent walk rates. Sure, this is going to lead to his fair share of strikeouts but Isaac has the power to make up for this. Isaac’s athleticism and baseball instincts also are a bit underrated for a player who stole 15 bases last season. Even in one of his down seasons, Harper still finished as the 19th-best hitter in fantasy according to FanGraphs Auction Calculator. Isaac has a similar upside to this, especially in OBP leagues.
True Projection:
Last year, I labeled Isaac as a bust candidate for 2024. His 2024 production did nothing to alleviate any of the concerns fantasy managers should have moving forward. The Rays have had several top prospects work through their system only to fall victim to playing time roulette. Isaac’s platoon issues make him a prime candidate to be given a similar treatment. Ranking Isaac as one of the game’s top prospects comes with the belief that he is going to post a respectable batting average. The expectation should be that his batting average will be subpar and settle in around .220-.230. Isaac’s power is legit but he is going to need to play enough to reach his 35+ home run ceiling. Isaac is going to hit more home runs than Trent Grisham, but he is not guaranteed to hit as many as Bryce Harper. A .230 average with 25 home runs and an elite walk rate is a fair expectation for fantasy managers to have moving forward.
CJ Kayfus – CLE
Dynasty Floor Comp: 2023 DJ LaMahieu
.243 AVG | .327 OBP | .390 SLG | 15 HR | 2 SB | 22.2 K% | 10.7 BB%
The floor for CJ Kayfus is not as drastic as some other first basemen featured on this list. Kayfus is a solid hitter who does a lot of things really well. He has great plate discipline which at worst should produce solid walk rates. He has good power although it is not game-changing. With the good come some concerns. Kayfus has some contact issues that could be exploited at the major league level. He also has run unrealistically high BABIPs early in his professional career. As these come down, his batting average could take a hit. At his floor, Kayfus could still be a fringe fantasy asset.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2015 Shin-Soo Choo
.276 AVG | .375 OBP | .463 SLG | 22 HR | 4 SB | 22.5 K% | 11.6 BB%
As mentioned above, Kayfus’ power is not game-changing. However, Kayfus does have above-average pop that could easily produce 20+ home runs. 22 might be a bit low for his ceiling with a projection of 25 being a more appropriate ceiling comp. The rest of Choo’s 2015 profile nails Kayfus perfectly though. His patient approach at the plate should lead to an excellent walk rate although his patient approach could get him in trouble with strikeouts at times. Kayfus also hits a ton of line drives which is the driver behind his high BABIPs and should result in a solid batting average. Kayfus does not have a ceiling to be a top-2o player like some others on this list. However, there is a good chance he will become a very useful fantasy asset. Choo finished as the 40th best hitter back in 2015 which feels like an appropriate ceiling for Kayfus.
True Projection:
The projection on Kayfus seems to fall directly in between this floor and ceiling comp. With the way he hits line drives, his batting average should land above .243. However, his swinging strike rate increased against tougher competition and there could be more risk here than initially meets the eye. His power is going to play but expecting 30+ home runs from him is a stretch. Kayfus profiles as a solid, albeit unspectacular fantasy asset. He is not going to win many leagues but he should turn into a reliable source of production at first base in the coming years.
Photo by Icon Sportswire | Featured Image by Justin Redler (@reldernitsuj on Bsky/Twitter)