The Jackson Six
Jackson Merrill and the Padres’ offense piled on the misery that is watching Nationals pitching yesterday. Merrill took a minute to get going, with a routine flyout in the second inning, but it was all damage after that. He finished the night with a 4-5, 3B, 2 HR, 2 R, 6 RBI line that included hits against every pitcher that took the mound for Washington. Merrill’s three extra-base hits were all loud, leaving the bat between 101.5 and 106.9 mph. He was a bit fortunate on the triple, with Jacob Young, an outstanding center fielder, managing to chase down the long fly before losing the ball while crashing into the center field wall. Both of Merrill’s homers were oppo shots, giving him 7 (by my examination of his Statcast spray chart) to left/left-center.
Merrill is an interesting case of how prospects can turn out quite differently from what their minor league numbers or scouting reports suggest. Merrill was a low-HR, high-average outfielder with below-average outfield defense in the minors. FanGraphs’ scouting report gave him a 70 future hit tool, with 45 game power, and 45 outfield defense at graduation. Instead, now he’s a strong defender in center field with plus power and a poor average. He’s always been athletic enough to play a good center field – he has 90th percentile sprint speed and 91st percentile arm strength – but what happened at the plate? It’s not quite as simple as just saying “chase rate,” although that’s certainly a factor. Merrill chases 37% of pitches outside the zone, 21st among qualified hitters. That’s not enough by itself to tank his average, though; Ernie Clement leads the majors in chase and has a .273 average. The chase rate combined with good, but not great, bat-to-ball skills is part of the issue. He doesn’t chase quite as much as Ezequiel Tovar, but he has almost identical contact rates to Tovar, leading to a 13.7% swinging strike rate. Statcast does think he’s been unlucky on batted balls, though, giving him a .263 xAVG on the season. He also sprays the ball all over the field, so this isn’t a situation where you’d expect xAVG to overshoot due to omitting spray angle. The current version of Merrill is a very good player, but one with average batted-ball luck is a star.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Wednesday…
Christopher Morel (NYM): 3-4, 2B, HR, 3 R, 3 RBI.
The Mets and Marlins played a wild one last night, with the Mets barely surviving a 9th-inning rally to win 15-14. Morel started the day on the bench, but pinch-ran for an injured Brett Baty in the second inning. In his first at-bat, he got a hanging slider and sent it way out to left field. His other two hits were quieter ground balls, but they snuck through the infield, and he ended up scoring on both occasions. Ultimately, the biggest win for Morel is putting the bat on the ball in 75% of his plate appearances; two seasons of 35% strikeout rates have dampened any enthusiasm still remaining from his days with the Cubs.
Joe Mack (MIA): 3-5, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Mack was in the on-deck circle when the game ended with the Marlins trailing by one run, having scored three times already in the bottom of the 9th. Two of Mack’s hits were scorched at 104 mph, one a high fly ball that just made it past Carson Benge’s leaping attempt in right field and the other a line drive single. Mack is only slashing .231/.281/.399, but outstanding catcher defense has made him a 2-WAR player in just under 100 games as a rookie.
Otto Lopez (MIA): 2-3, 3B, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB.
Lopez keeps chugging along, using his exceptional contact ability and 82nd percentile sprint speed to rack up base hits. You might also be looking at his line and wondering how the Marlins’ cleanup hitter only had 4 plate appearances in a game where they scored 14 runs. Lopez was also plunked in the fourth and eighth innings, coming around to score both times. Lopez is slashing .301/.338/.437, good for a 111 wRC+; combined with his outstanding shortstop defense, he’s put up a 5-WAR season.
Mookie Betts (LAD): 3-5, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI.
It turns out that Reds pitching, like a trip to Sacramento or Colorado, is a cure for any ailing offenses. Betts and the Dodgers put up 14 runs in LA last night against a Reds staff that ranks between 27th and 29th in the majors by every ERA estimator. Betts struck out in his first at-bat, something that still only happens 11.2% of the time despite his step back offensively over the past two seasons. He homered in the third inning, extending his on-base streak to 18 games, and added sharp line drives for base hits in the fourth and sixth innings.
Kyle Tucker (LAD): 3-5, 2B, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Who are you, and what have you done with the Tucker that tanked so many fantasy rosters this year (mine included)? Tucker has a sixth of his seasonal home run output in the first 10 days of September, but he’s also just 5-for-35 in that span. Tucker had three hard-hit balls last night, including a line-drive double that left the bat at 106.2 mph. Every ball he put into play came on a swing between 74.6 and 78.3 mph, a welcome sight after his bat speed had declined to 71.4 mph this season. Tucker has an elite approach, and Statcast thinks he’s been a bit unlucky at the plate, but even regression to the expected numbers wouldn’t yield an outcome you’d be satisfied with this season.
Jackson Chourio (MIL): 3-5, HR, R, 2 RBI, SB.
Chourio did a bit of everything last night as the Brewers took an 8-6 game against the division rival Cubs. It wasn’t that close for most of the game, with the Brewers jumping out to a 7-0 lead after three innings before the Cubs scored 5 runs in the 9th. Chourio hit his 23rd homer of the season in the second inning, an absolute tank to center off a Kevin Gausman splitter that hung in the middle of the zone. Chourio added two line-drive singles, one softly dropped into the outfield and the other hit with more authority, as well as his 17th steal of the season.
Trea Turner (PHI): 2-5, HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB.
Turner had his 19th homer and 19th stolen base of the year in this one. The homer came on a middle-up slider that he shot into the front row in right-center field. Unlike Tucker or Merrill, Statcast thinks Turner’s results this year are mostly deserved. He’s had some continued erosion in his plate approach, leading to the second-highest strikeout rate of his career. He’s slashing .241/.294/.385 in what is one of the more disappointing 20-20 campaigns.
Denzer Guzman (LAA): 3-4, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Guzman was all over Red Sox pitching last night. His three hits were all struck between 103.7 and 104.4 mph, including a homer to left that was kept inside the stadium by the giant billboards behind the Green Monster. Guzman has started the last two games for the Angels, both against lefties, but only one of the previous 4 games against righties. It’s been a rough second try at the majors for Guzman. He’s chasing 33% of the time, up from 24% in the minors and 19% in his small cup of coffee last year. He’s had a very good 74 mph average bat speed, though it hasn’t shown up in his average exit velocity yet. I’m a little intrigued by Guzman for next year, but mostly for the middle-to-late rounds of a draft-and-hold or deep league.
Konnor Griffin (PIT): 1-4, 2 RBI, BB, 2 SB.
Griffin and the Pirates took a 4-2 victory over the White Sox yesterday. Griffin walked and stole second to lead off the game, and added a two-RBI single and his 22nd steal of the season in the 7th inning. He also got a bit unlucky earlier in the day, smashing a ground ball 107.8 mph directly at the defense to end the 5th inning. Griffin hasn’t dominated the majors in his rookie season, but he’s a 20-year-old shortstop with a 95 wRC+. That’s a pretty good outcome – Bobby Witt Jr. played his rookie season at 22 years old and put up a 98 wRC+.
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Ethan Kaplan (@djfreddie10.bsky.social on Blue Sky and @EthanMKaplanImages on Instagram)
