Here is another check-in on PLV and Fan4+ darlings around the minors. Instead of looking at the biggest names, let’s look at some of the best recent performers who may not have the prospect profile to earn dynasty respect, but could make their real-life value known soon.
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Checking in on Big-name Prospects:
Quinn Mathews, 24, St. Louis Cardinals
MiLB Season Stats: 16 GS/60.0 IP/3.75 ERA/26.2% K%/18.1% BB%/1.63 WHIP
Weekly Stats: 1 GS/6.2 IP/2.70 ERA/32.1% K%/3.6% BB%/0.90 WHIP
After a season that’s left something to be desired, left-handed pitcher Quinn Matthews offered a glimpse of promise with a strong August 1 start for Triple-A Memphis—one that could be the beginning of a strong finish to 2025.
Matthews fed the Norfolk Tides a steady diet of strikeouts over 6.2 innings, fanning nine batters—including striking out the side in the sixth. While the Tides’ season has unfortunately mirrored that of their big-league affiliate, it’s still a performance worth tipping your cap to. Matthews even added a bit of insult to injury by striking out Norfolk shortstop José Barrero three times, including one of his final outs in the seventh inning. The Tides had a flicker of hope with two runners on in the sixth, but Matthews snuffed it out with a swinging strikeout of outfielder Vimael Machín.
It wasn’t a perfect outing, but the Stanford product will take it as he builds on a solid trio of post-All-Star starts. Over 14.1 innings since July 20, the strikeouts are ticking up, the walks are coming down, and that’s the kind of trend you want to see at this stage of his development.
Matthews’ arsenal against the Tides made for a fascinating pitch-by-pitch breakdown. Unsurprisingly, he leaned on his four-seam fastball—it’s been his go-to pitch all season. But what was surprising was how poorly it graded out in the expected metrics. The fastball posted a brutal .511 xwOBA and had the lowest whiff rate (21.4%) of his top four offerings. He gave up the most contact on that pitch, and outside of setting up his secondaries, there wasn’t much positive to take from it. That said, the pitches it helped set up were nasty. His changeup was especially lethal, generating five strikeouts and an absurd 71.4% whiff rate. That’s elite, plain and simple. The slider wasn’t far behind—Matthews landed it well, held hitters to a .162 xwOBA, and posted a strong 46.2% whiff rate. Even his curveball, which hasn’t been a strength this season, looked sharp. He only threw it 10 times, but it returned two strikeouts and a 66.7% whiff rate. If you’re missing bats that often, it’s doing its job.
Unfortunately, Matthews finds himself in a pretty deep hole when it comes to season-long models and cumulative performance. The idea of him turning 2025 into a full-blown success feels like a stretch—it would take a historic, near-improbable run to erase the impact of his walk issues and pitch-level struggles highlighted by PLV. That said, the data does suggest some encouraging changes are happening. It’s too early to call it a trend without more consistency and a larger sample size, but there are clear steps in the right direction. It might be too little, too late for this season, but it’s something.
Matthews is still chasing his MLB debut, and with the organization acting as sellers at the trade deadline, the final two months of the season should be all about the future—and Matthews needs to be part of that. Starts like his on August 1 go a long way in showing whether he’s grown or evolved as the year has gone on. That said, it might be too little, too late for 2025, and dynasty managers may need to shift their focus to 2026 for him to re-enter the rotation conversation in St. Louis. The shoulder injury earlier this year may have cooled the organization’s outlook, and when paired with his walk issues and general inconsistency, Matthews’ 2025 campaign still casts doubt on his near-term impact. This most recent outing was arguably his best of the year—and while that’s encouraging, it’s also telling. Is this the kind of performance you want standing as your top pitching prospect’s season highlight? Probably not. Still, it’s a positive step, and dynasty managers should be watching closely as rosters expand in September.
Look under the PLV hood for Matthews this season.
Weekly Four-Seam Standouts
As the season wears on, it has been interesting to watch how fastballs improve or change down on the farm. As new faces break into rotations or small tweaks turn from blips to consistent factors, it is important to keep an eye on pitch shapes. Pitcher List’s Fan 4+ is a model based on the “Fan-Tastic 4” stats: velocity, extension, induced vertical break (iVB), and height-adjusted vertical approach angle (HAVAA), compared to the average four-seam fastball. What are some marks from Triple-A and Low-A’s Florida State League that jumped off the page this week?
Reinold Navarro, 18, Pittsburgh Pirates
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 136 Fan4+ on Aug. 2, 2025, start
MiLB Season Stats: 12 G (10 GS)/28.2 IP/5.34 ERA/40.3% K%/24.8% BB%/1.43 WHIP
Left-handed pitcher Reinold Navarro might be as raw as they come, but the Pittsburgh Pirates prospect already flashes elite traits on his four-seam fastball—even if the box score paints a rough picture.
Navarro signed with the Pirates during the 2024 international signing period and was recently promoted to Low-A Bradenton in late July. The early returns have been, to put it mildly, wild. He’s walked 12 batters in just three innings of work, including four free passes in 2.1 innings on Aug. 2 alone. But despite the severe control issues, Navarro’s stuff still jumps off the page and onto scouts’ radars. His four-seam fastball averaged 96.2 mph over 34 pitches, paired with a ridiculous 20.1 inches of induced vertical break—one of the best marks of the day. FanGraphs gives his fastball a 70-grade future value, and it’s easy to see why after watching it explode through the zone. Even with 30-grade control today, dreaming on 45-grade and a potential late-inning relief role doesn’t feel far-fetched. Navarro is likely not a starting prospect given his command profile, but the raw ingredients are there for a high-octane bullpen weapon. If the Pirates can help him harness even average control, Navarro could be a serious force out of the pen in a few years.
Bubba Chandler, 22, Pittsburgh Pirates
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 135 Fan4+ in July 30, 2025, start
MiLB Season Stats: 21 GS/88.0 IP/3.58 ERA/27.9% K%/11.8% BB%/1.36 WHIP
Bubba Chandler’s rise to the major leagues felt like a foregone conclusion entering 2025, but as the season winds down, it’s fair to question why the Pirates haven’t pulled the trigger on promoting their top pitching prospect. His July 30 start is just the latest example of what’s holding Chandler back from turning his potential into undeniable production.
Since June 17, Chandler has issued multiple walks in every outing, totaling 24 free passes to just 37 strikeouts over 39.1 innings with Triple-A Indianapolis. He didn’t look entirely comfortable in his most recent start—not injured, but clearly not in command of the game. The results confirmed that, as Chandler surrendered five earned runs, including two home runs, and managed just two strikeouts. It’s another stumble in a post-All-Star Break slide, where he holds a 7.36 ERA in three starts. Outside of a seven-strikeout performance on July 24, he simply hasn’t looked the same. Interestingly, Chandler posted a strong 135 Fan4+ on July 30, but that was despite some rough location numbers. His 76.5 PLV Location+ was one of the worst among starters that day, a sign that he’s missing spots at a concerning rate. If Chandler hopes to debut before the season’s end, tightening up his command under pressure has to be the next step.
Blade Tidwell, 24, San Francisco Giants
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 111 Fan4+ in July 29, 2025, start
MiLB Season Stats: 17 G (14 GS)/79.0 IP/4.10 ERA/25.7% K%/9.5% BB%/1.29 WHIP
In what would become his final start as a member of the New York Mets organization, right-handed pitcher Blade Tidwell reminded everyone why he was a top-10 prospect and a player the San Francisco Giants specifically targeted at the trade deadline.
Taking the mound against the Buffalo Bisons, Tidwell tossed four scoreless innings, scattering three hits and demonstrating how he can succeed even when his swing-and-miss arsenal isn’t firing on all cylinders. His 15.8% whiff rate marked his second-lowest of the 2025 season, but he still limited Buffalo to a minuscule .161 xwOBA—tied for his second-best of the year—and an 8.3% hard-hit rate. It was a masterclass in control and sequencing, showing his ability to dominate without needing overpowering stuff.
Tidwell leaned heavily on his fastball, averaging 95.1 mph with 6.5 feet of extension and 16.2 inches of induced vertical break. The pitch was well-located and effective in any count, giving him a reliable backbone even when secondary offerings weren’t getting whiffs. His 111 Fan4+ rating on the day wasn’t elite, but it was one of the top marks among Triple-A starters and showcased the kind of consistent foundation the Giants can build upon. For San Francisco, acquiring Tidwell adds a controllable, high-floor arm with mid-rotation potential—and perhaps more if his secondary stuff sharpens. His final start in Syracuse showed an evolving pitcher; he was not just overpowering hitters but outthinking them, too.
Welcome to the Bigs
Luis Morales, 22, Athletics
MiLB Season Stats: 23 GS (14 GS)/89.1 IP/3.73 ERA/29.2% K%/9.6% BB%/1.14 WHIP
Debut: 5.0 IP/10.80 ERA/29.2% K%/8.3% BB%/1.80 WHIP
The Athletics welcomed Cuban-born right-hander Luis Morales to the mound for his MLB debut this week. But while the 22-year-old’s call-up generated excitement among fans, his two innings of low-leverage relief work weren’t quite the splashy debut many had hoped for from the club’s third-ranked prospect—especially with little to lose down the stretch of a rebuilding 2025 season.
The Athletics cleared significant space on the pitching depth chart at the trade deadline, sending closer Mason Miller and starter JP Sears to San Diego. In their place, the organization promoted Morales, currently ranked as the 80th-best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline. He entered Monday’s contest in relief of starter Jacob Lopez, who had tossed five scoreless frames against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Morales showed some expected debut jitters, allowing a leadoff double and a walk before escaping the sixth with a double play. His lone run allowed came via a sacrifice fly in the seventh, but overall, he offered a glimpse of the electric stuff that has both dynasty managers and the A’s front office buzzing.
“The stuff is really good,” said A’s catcher Shea Langeliers after the game. “For him, it’s going to be a matter of being in the strike zone… Obviously, first-time pitching in the big leagues is nerve-wracking. I was telling him, ‘Get that first one out of the way, and now we get to go have some fun.’”
Morales leaned heavily on a fastball-slider combo, which made up 34 of his 37 pitches. His slider was particularly sharp, generating a 5.40 PLV and 38.5% CSW%. Though he rarely lands it in the zone, it still drew plenty of awkward swings from Arizona hitters. His fastball, however, was more hittable—posting a 50% ICR—likely due to inconsistent command that left too many pitches over the heart of the plate.
It was somewhat surprising not to see Morales deploy his sweeper, arguably his best-performing pitch at Triple-A. The breaking ball earned a 48% whiff rate and .110 xwOBA on limited usage this season, but it didn’t factor into Monday’s game plan.
While Morales’ debut didn’t include a strikeout or a dominant performance, there’s no reason to sound alarm bells. His recent shift into a multi-inning relief role has gone smoothly, with nine consecutive appearances out of the bullpen since June 27. During that stretch, he has compiled a 2.00 ERA and 3.64 FIP across 18 innings, with strikeout and walk rates holding steady from his starting days.
Still, from a fantasy standpoint—especially in dynasty leagues—his ultimate value will hinge on whether the Athletics gives him a true rotation role. Bulk relievers have limited upside, and Morales’ path to relevance hinges on volume and usage. He’s likely to be part of a larger wave of young A’s arms—including Gage Jump, Jack Perkins, Braden Nett, and 2025 first-rounder Jamie Arnold—vying for starts in 2026 and beyond.
The debut didn’t come with fireworks, but it showcased enough to keep expectations intact. If Morales gets a longer leash and a clearer role, he could quickly prove why he’s one of the most intriguing young arms in the team’s system.
Pitchers that made their MLB debuts this past week:
Pierson Ohl, 25, Minnesota Twins
