Growing up in the Midwest, people cannot go a spring day without hearing the old adage “April showers bring May flowers.” They see it too, with the visible transition from winter’s drain on nature ending and color and vitality returning to the landscape. In a twisted way, the same could be said for well-performing prospects in any MLB organization. The April showers, a dreary opening to the season for a pitcher, could lead to May flowers, a debuting player making their mark and blossoming in the major leagues. Is that a stretch? Maybe.
No matter how you look at it, a team’s initial patience with players’ lack of fit or underperformance is starting to run out. Players lower the pecking order and get optioned, designated for assignment, or traded daily. One player is shown the door, which opens a spot for another player to take their place. That door is more free-swinging when it comes to pitchers, and dynasty managers need to keep their finger on the prospect pulse for who could make it to The Show next. Here are some prospect performances from the past week that they should know about, fresh from the farm.
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Checking in on Some Big Name Prospects:
Bubba Chandler, 22, Pittsburgh Pirates
Season Stats: 4 GS/15.1 IP/1.76 ERA/41.1% K%/ 10.7% BB%/ 0.78 WHIP
Weekly Stats: 2 GS/8.2 IP/3.12 ERA/35.5% K%/ 3.2% BB%/ 0.58 WHIP
Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats puts my sentiments perfectly.
Can the Pirates just call up Bubba Chandler already? pic.twitter.com/MNtWh7Tdog
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) April 19, 2025
The Pirates’ top prospect is setting the bar for what we consider a flamethrower after touching 101.5 MPH in his Apr. 13 start. This is a new development for the righty, after never surpassing 100 MPH in 2023 or 2024. Now, he has the hardest thrown pitch from any Triple-A pitcher and tied Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene’s mark for the MLB side. That was just one of four pitches for Chandler to eclipse 100 MPH in that Sunday start, and he kept the magic rolling in an Apr. 19 showing against the Toledo Mud Hens.
Pittsburgh has Chandler on a fairly strict pitch count, so his counting numbers are not going to explode off the stat sheet. However, in 2025, Chandler’s rate numbers will surpass all others, and he holds a significant advantage in this area. His 41.1% strikeout rate leads all qualified International League pitchers, while only Zebby Matthews has the edge on Chandler in the K-BB% rate, where Chandler currently has a 30.4% mark.
Chandler just fills up the strike zone with his fastball, and his command of a slider and changeup continues to improve. The 22-year-old has three clear plus pitches in his fourth professional season and would likely be Pittsburgh’s third-best starter upon his promotion. Chandler was already firmly on dynasty managers’ radars heading into 2025, but his rise has only picked up velocity, like his fastball.
His secondary pitches will decide Chandler’s success at the next level, and the slider and changeup are progressing in a PLV lens. His slider has a 5.41 PLV for the young season, while his changeup has a similar 5.44 PLV. The changeup command is more erratic than the slider, but it balances out considering the offering’s pure stuff. Chandler also mixes in a curvball, but I am not a fan of it. Truthfully, those three pitches have been more than enough to power his prospect profile so far. It seems like starters like Green have been able to carve out MLB success with a three-pitch mix in an era where more is best. What would a cutter or split-finger fastball look like from Chandler? There is still plenty of room and time for growth.
AJ Blubaugh, 24, Houston Astros
Season Stats: 4 G (3 GS)/1 SV/18.0 IP/2.00 ERA/36.8% K%/7.9% BB%/ 1.17 WHIP
Weekly Stats: 2 G (1 GS)/1 SV/9.0 IP/2.00 ERA/40.5% K%/10.8% BB%/ 1.00 WHIP
One reason talented ballplayers might skip college and sign out of high school is that organizations often have better tools to develop players. Getting a college education is valuable and worth a person’s time, but not every school can match the developmental value that an MLB franchise can. Sure, schools like Purdue, Wake Forest, and Mississippi State have excellent processes and invest in developing ballplayers, but schools like Wisconsin-Milwaukee cannot keep up. That inability likely kept right-handed pitcher AJ Blubaugh in their bullpen, and the Houston Astros saw that untapped potential. That seventh-round investment in 2022 has paid off already, and Blubaugh’s MLB debut feels imminent.
The lanky starter works quickly on the mound and already has a solid five-pitch mix, with a traditional four-seamer being his workhorse pitch and a sweeper being his top secondary. Thanks to plenty of vertical and arm-side break, that fastball plays up from its 94 MPH average velocity. His 5.95 PLV is impressive, yet the pitch’s value easily translates through the broadcast.
His sweeper pairs effectively with his cutter and curveball, but the former stands out as an exceptional pitch. The impressive 6.63 PLV is a result of Blubaugh’s ability to locate the pitch both within the strike zone and on its edges. It proves to be a devastating weapon against right-handed hitters and will serve him well at the next level.
Weekly Four-Seam Standouts
This section could be a combination of Zebby Matthews (143 on Apr. 15), Jacob Misiorowski (131 on Apr. 16), Andrew Painter (122 on 4/18), or Chandler week in and week out. Those pitchers are among the cream of the prospect crop, and their fastballs are a large part of their success. Instead of honing in on the player’s managers many already know, here are some other above-average offerings and what makes them worth noting.
Khal Stephen, 22, Toronto Blue Jays
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 106 Fan 4+ in Apr. 16, 2025 start
Season Stats: 3 GS/16.0 IP/0.56 ERA/35.7% K%/3.6% BB%/0.56 WHIP
There is a reason Low-A stadiums aren’t sold out on the weekends. The overall quality of play pales in comparison to the major-league product, but watching those games is like an investment in the team’s future. Many players have one or two tools, developing another as they chase the MLB dream. Whenever a minor-league pitcher showcases one strength consistently at an elite level, that is a guy organizations will invest more in. While the overall velocity isn’t jumping off the charts, right-hander Khal Stephen has good foundational pieces to be a back-end starter one day.
The Purdue and Mississippi State product has only made three starts in his professional career, not pitching after the Toronto Blue Jays drafted him 59th overall in 2024. He physically looks every part of a workhorse starter, with good command for four pitches. The fastball here, his primary offering on his Apr. 16 start, shows plenty of promise. Sure, it averages 92.7 MPH on the day, but touching 96 early in the season isn’t too shabby. His 18.4″ of iVB led Low-A starters on the day, and mirrors some of MLB’s better pitchers. Add in his 6.9′ of extension and impeccable location, Stephen’s outing was hard to ignore.
Colby Holcombe, 22, Toronto Blue Jays
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 117 Fan4+ on Apr. 15, 2025 start
Season Stats: 2 GS/9.0 IP/3.00 ERA/28.2% K%/10.3% BB%/ 1.56 WHIP
Let’s keep it in the Blue Jays organization with another 2024 draftee in right-hander Colby Holcombe. He is even a former Mississippi State Bulldog pitcher like Stephen, but Toronto called his name much later at 277th overall. Holcombe doesn’t land on many prospect radars right now, thanks to lacking some control in his collegiate career. However, the raw suff he showcased in SEC action warranted a late-round flier from some organization.
So far, that hasn’t harmed him in professional ball, and the strikeout stuff remains potent in Low-A. Averaging 94.1 MPH on his fastball as a starter is promising after working out of the bullpen in college. The location is palatable, especially paired with a sharp slider and deceptive changeup. His extension and HAVAA are in the middle of the road compared to his peers, but that 18.8″ iVB far outpaces the pack. Holcombe is still a work in progress, but Toronto is investing a lot of draft capital into collegiate pitching. Do you know if that investment will pay off? Players like Holcombe will determine that.
Janson Junk, 29, Miami Marlins
Weekly Four-Seam Grade: 139 Fan 4+ in Apr. 15, 2025 start
Season Stats: 4 GS/20.0 IP/3.60 ERA/30.8% K%/5.1% BB%/1.00 WHIP
Right-handed pitcher Janson Junk is hardly what you would consider a prospect, but heading to the Miami Marlins‘ pitching lab may be what the 29-year-old needed to revitalize his MLB career. Currently in the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp rotation, Junk has proved his fastball is anything but his last name, increasing his career averages in nearly every aspect. The average velocity is nearly exactly the same, but more iVB, better HAVAA, and better extension give the pitch plenty of life. The control is still a work in progress, but keep an eye on him returning to the bigs in 2025.
Welcome to the Bigs
Justin Hagenman, 28, New York Mets
Minor League Season Stats: 3 G (2 GS)/10.1 IP/6.97 ERA/23.5% K%/7.8% BB%/1.84 WHIP
Major League Debut Pitching Line(s): 3.1 IP/1 ER/30.8% K%/0.0% BB%/0.90 WHIP
It feels like if relief pitchers don’t have elite stuff nowadays, their MLB debuts come well past being considered a prospect. It took right-handed pitcher Justin Hagenman landing with his third organization to make an appearance in The Show, but the New York Mets finally gave him that break. After being the emergency man with scheduled starter Griffin Canning coming down with some sort of bug, Hagenman worked behind Huascar Brazobán serving as an opener.
Hagenman has been a reliever for much of his professional career, but made 15 starts across 28 games in the Boston Red Sox organization last year. The Mets invested in him with a major-league contract despite never pitching at that level. He proved deserving of that in his debut, only allowing three hits against the Minnesota Twins. He has a straight forward sinker-cutter mix with a changeup serving as his offspeed offering low in the zone. A 24.0% CSW% isn’t going to garner him any All-Star attention, but a 5.30 PLV on the day certainly exceeded expectations.
The Mets quickly optioned Hagenman back down to Triple-A Syracuse, so he was never seemingly a long-term option in New York. The next man up for a playoff contender is not a bad spot to be in, and Hagenman had to leave a positive first impression. He shouldn’t be flashing on any dynasty radars, but congrats to the Penn State product on a solid MLB debut.
Other pitchers that made their MLB debuts this past week:
Juan Morillo, 26, Arizona Diamondbacks
Patrick Monteverde, 27, Miami Marlins
Brandon Young, 26, Baltimore Orioles
Matt Svanson, 26, St. Louis Cardinals
