One of my favorite activities following the draft is evaluating what “marriages” increase the value of a player. In my opinion, player development is more important than the talent of the player. Organizations can make or break a player’s future success, no matter the talent level. Are there certain players who can succeed despite bad player development? Yes, but the reality is that most players’ successes and failures can be tied to the organization they are drafted by, and whether they are put in a position to succeed. With that said, let’s look at a couple of marriages that increase the value of the player within the organization that drafted them.
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Kade Anderson, Seattle Mariners
The highest selection on this list, Anderson and the Mariners, was one many in the industry had circled as a perfect marriage from the early going of the college season. The only obstacle to it happening was Anderson’s dominant season, which gave him a high probability to go 1st overall. Well, as happens often in the MLB draft, slot value led to him “falling,” where the Mariners were most likely ecstatic to pick him up.
Anderson was extremely impressive this season as the ace of the national champion LSU Tigers. He pitched to a 3.18 ERA, showcasing impressive swing and miss stuff with above-average command, as evidenced by a 180/35 K/BB ratio. The repertoire is a 4 pitch mix headlined by a 70 grade fastball that generated a 34.7% whiff rate. He combined that with a slider that he used 28.2% of the time, a change he used 12.2% of the time, and a curveball he used 12% of the time. The change-up was impressive, generating a 44.8% whiff rate, while the curveball generated a 36% rate, and the slider a 32% rate. All 4 pitches flashed the potential to be plus offerings at the next level.
What makes the marriage between Anderson and the Mariners so special is the Mariners’ pitching development. Their ability to maximize pitchers’ stuff and continue development in pro ball leads me to believe they will improve Anderson’s overall profile. As arguably the best pitching staff in the MLB, filled with talent drafted and developed by them, Anderson seems to potentially be another in a long run of success stories.
Ethan Holliday, Colorado Rockies
Immediately after the Mariners’ selection of Anderson, the Rockies drafted a player who just made too much sense for them. Not only does Ethan Holliday’s skillset as a power-hitting left-handed hitter have the potential to thrive in Colorado, but he also has a long-standing relationship with the organization. Ethan’s dad, Matt, was a Rockies 7th-round draftee in 1998, going on to play 6 impressive seasons, including a batting title in 2007.
Outside of comfort with the organization, Holliday will have a chance to thrive in the Rockies system. Ethan’s biggest flaw is some swing and miss concerns, and that will limit his potential to tap into his 80-grade raw power. Combine the high altitude’s impact on pitchers, and the ability to consistently elevate the baseball, and the floor for Holliday immediately rises. While Ethan is not nearly as advanced as Jackson was on draft day, it is easy to imagine Ethan launching balls in the friendly confines of Coors Field in the near future.
The Cubs’ selection of Ethan Conrad left many scratching their head. Conrad had spent 2 years at Marist University in Poughkeepsie, NY, before transferring to Wake Forest. Many evaluators liked what they saw but wanted to see it against high-level competition.
Conrad showed out in his short time at Wake Forest. Before a shoulder injury ended his season, Conrad was extremely impressive, slashing .372/.495/.744 with 7 home runs and 8 doubles in 21 games. If he had continued that level of play through a full season, he would have had an argument to be selected in the top 10. While many across the industry did not think there was enough evidence against high-level competition to solidify him as a 1st round talent, the Cubs felt convicted enough to select him at 17 overall.
The Cubs’ recent track record of 1st round selections has had a theme. They simply want a hitter who showcases above-average skills in 3 categories: contact rates, exit velocity, and chase. No different than Cam Smith and Matt Shaw before him, Conrad fit the mold of what the Cubs value in a hitter. He featured an 82.4% contact rate with a 23.6% chase rate and a 91.9 mph exit velocity. While the EV isn’t as elite, he has a knack for pulling the ball in the air, which allowed him to showcase above-average power in his short time in the ACC. This is a selection where you trust the Cubs and put blind faith in their recent track record.
Position Players, Baltimore Orioles
As the great Nick Saban once said, “I’m not going to, so quit asking.”
Quit asking the Orioles to draft pitchers!! They aren’t going to! It doesn’t matter if their rotation at the Major League level is limiting their potential to win; it is simply not how they operate.
With all that said, you honestly have to respect the commitment (or stubbornness???) to their process. They are arguably the best in the league at identifying what their player development system does well, and how to select and tailor a player development plan to every hitter they select. This year was no different, nor will it most likely ever be.
At 19th overall, I am sure the Orioles were thrilled to have the opportunity to select Ike Irish. Many in the industry, myself included, thought he had a legit argument to be the best college position player with his impressive combination of bat-to-ball skills and power. I am sure the Orioles thought they would have no shot at Irish, but were ecstatic to submit that selection. They then followed the Irish selection with two prospects who are elite in different ways.
The first was Caden Bodine, who combines elite contact skills with elite defense. Not only was he the best pitch framer in the country, but he featured an 89% contact rate and only whiffed 4.2% of pitches in the strike zone. While the power didn’t show up in-game, he did feature a 90.7 mph exit velocity on the season, which shows there might be more than the 5 home runs would indicate.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Orioles selected Wehiwa Aloy with their 31st selection. Aloy was the Golden Spikes Award winner after a season in which he hit .350/.434/.673 with 21 home runs and 19 doubles. He is the anti-Bodine due to his ultra-aggressive approach and some whiff concerns. On the season, he only made contact with 71.1% of the pitches he swung at, while chasing at a 28.9% rate.
The Orioles put a lot of faith (rightfully so) in their offensive development, and all 3 of their top selections do something elite enough to imagine they will thrive in the O’s system. Not to mention, Slater de Brun is a really good player they added as well. And before you ask, he is not a pitcher.
Gage Wood, Philadelphia Phillies
Had Gage Wood thrown 100 Innings instead of only 37.2, he would have been a lock to be selected in the top 10. I wrote about what makes Wood so special after his College World Series no-hitter, here, but injuries and inconsistencies led to enough concerns to cause a talent like his to be selected at the end of the 1st round.
What makes me so excited about this marriage is not just Wood’s borderline 80-grade fastball or his 70-grade slider, but the Phillies’ development. While the Phillies have not been a factory for homegrown arms, what Caleb Cotham & Co. have done at the big league level has a trickle-down effect on the MiLB. The recent developments of Christopher Sanchez, Mick Abel, and Andrew Painter, combined with the development of Ranger Suárez and the ever-improving Zack Wheeler, there is a long recent track record for the Phillies to hang their hat on.
Giving the Phillies’ developmental team an arm with 2 elite pitches is a recipe for success. Wood could make an impact out of the bullpen as soon as tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see if the Phillies rush that timeline to help down the stretch. If not, I trust that his repertoire will continue to develop with the impressive track record of success from the Phillies.
Photos by John Korduner, Andy Altenburger, David Buono | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@TheCarbonFox on Twitter/X)
