Ah, Labor Day. The final three weeks of the regular season begin with an 11-game Monday slate. Based on the weekend’s action, I don’t think anyone is going to argue that Atlanta and Philadelphia’s final contest of what’s been an exciting series up to this point is probably the Phillies’ last hope of winning the NL East. After Ronald Acuña Jr.’s clutch game-tying three-run home run in the eighth frame on Sunday, followed by Austin Riley’s game-winning RBI triple in the ninth, Atlanta officially clinched the season series with their rivals. At five games up with 19 contests remaining for both clubs, and the tiebreaker in favor of the 2021 World Series champs, today’s finale at 1:05 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park is about as must-win as it gets for the home team.
This week’s top-five series list includes both Atlanta and Philly battling AL division leaders beginning on Tuesday. Neither club earned the No. 1 slot because the NL Central’s top two clubs are set to face each other for the last time this season. No. 4 and No. 5 on this week’s list might be a bit surprising, but then again, when you take a gander at the 10 series that missed the top five, I don’t think there is much debate to be had. I thought about Cleveland at Baltimore for a few minutes at No. 5. But after watching the Red Sox sweep the Orioles in four games at Fenway Park over the weekend, while holding the visitors to one run in each of the last three contests, I feel Maryland’s team is finished. The O’s have lost six straight and have gone from 1 ½ games back of the third AL wild card spot just five days ago to now four games behind the Guardians. Their series with Cleveland is certainly on the bubble for the top five, and if they can win it, their upcoming weekend matchup with Toronto may earn them a slot on Friday’s top-five list. Keep an eye on that series, which will have already started on Monday before this article goes live.
Onto the top-five list.
No. 1: Cubs (81-63) at Brewers (88-56)
Series length: Three games (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday)
I said in last Friday’s Weekend Series Preview that, at eight games back, the Cubs wouldn’t catch Milwaukee. And even if they had swept that four-game set at Wrigley Field, they would still have been four games back of the NL Central lead. Instead, the rivals split the series, and the big picture didn’t change. This past weekend, Chicago won two of three games versus Miami while Milwaukee lost its series at Cincinnati, 2-1. That leaves us with a division separated by seven games, and a matchup that’s less about the NL Central race and more about home-field advantage for both squads come October.
The Brewers have a 1 ½ game lead over Los Angeles for the National League’s best record. Atlanta is 2 ½ games off the pace. It’s a three-team race for not only the NL’s best record, but the incredibly important top-two seed needed to avoid the Best-of-3 NLWC. As for the Baby Bears, they aren’t playing for a bye to the NLDS (they won’t make up seven games on the Brewers with 18 games remaining), but like Milwaukee, they are playing for home-field advantage. Chicago is a half-game ahead of Philadelphia for the National League’s top wild card position. The No. 4 seed gets to play at home for all three potential NLWC contests. It’s shaping up to be a Cubs vs. Phillies opening-round affair. As it stands on Monday, the Diamondbacks are 4 ½ games behind Philadelphia for the No. 5 spot. So the question is, who gets home-field advantage in a likely Cubs-Phillies series?
The Brewers are 6-4 versus Chicago this year and need one victory over the Cubs to clinch the season series.
Expected pitching matchups:
Monday: CHC – Matthew Boyd (18 GS, 8-3, 4.05 ERA) versus MIL – Robert Gasser (17 G, 16 GS, 4-5, 4.57 ERA)
Tuesday: CHC – David Peterson (28 G, 19 GS, 7-8, 5.39 ERA) versus MIL – Jacob Misiorowski (26 GS, 14-5, 1.97 ERA)
Wednesday: CHC – Kevin Gausman (29 GS, 9-11, 4.38 ERA) versus MIL – Logan Henderson (15 GS, 9-3, 2.48 ERA)
No. 2: Rays (85-58) at Atlanta (85-58)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Depending on Atlanta’s outcome with Philadelphia on Monday, they will either be 86-58 and a half-game ahead of the Rays or 85-59 and a half-game behind Tampa Bay in the race for MLB’s best record. This series begins on Tuesday, and for all the conversation about how weak the American League is (rightfully so), there remains one team right in the thick of it for the best record in baseball. It’s come down to the three NL division leaders and the Rays.
The Rays are legit, and the numbers back that up. The AL East leaders have a top-10 ERA (3.82), lead MLB in batting average (.260), are the only offense in MLB with fewer than 1,000 strikeouts (996), and if you thought they are only this good because of the league in which they play, guess again. Tampa Bay is 23-19 versus the National League, which is the same record Atlanta has against the American League. If there is ever a time when I truly believe the Tampa Bay Rays have enough on their roster to win a World Series, this is it. That is not to say I’m picking them to win it all, but I certainly don’t see anyone in the AL taking them down easily, and if they do make the Fall Classic, whoever their opponent is will have its hands full. This finally feels like a club built for the postseason. We’ll see what happens next month.
This should be a great test for both teams. Regardless of Monday’s outcome with Philadelphia, I think Atlanta will end up as the NL’s No. 3 seed. They have quite a daunting schedule to end the regular season with another series versus Philadelphia at home beginning on Friday, followed by a pair of three-game sets on the road at Wrigley Field to face the Cubs and at Daikin Park to face the Astros. I wouldn’t bet against Atlanta missing a bye to the NLDS, but my gut says they’ll play either San Diego or Arizona in the Best-of-3 wild-card round. If that’s the case, their starting-pitching depth could be a problem in any five- or seven-game series if they advance. I love Chris Sale in any Game 1 situation, but if Tyler Mahle, Bryce Elder and Martín Pérez are the best they have following their ace, it’s going to be difficult come October. However, I’ve been wrong plenty before, including in 2021, when no one figured a rotation led by Max Fried, an aging Charlie Morton, and a young Ian Anderson would be nearly good enough to win it all. Oh yeah, and that ’21 squad didn’t have a healthy Acuna. Right now, Atlanta’s right fielder is healthy and playing as well as he has all season. Just ask the Phillies fans.
No. 3: Astros (73-71) at Phillies (80-63)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
Some might call this a rematch of the 2022 World Series (Houston defeated Philadelphia in six games), but these are two completely different squads from four years ago, even though more than a few veterans playing in this series participated in that Fall Classic.
Houston enters this three-game set coming off a 2-1 series loss at home to the D-backs. ‘Stros MVP candidate, Yordan Alvarez, hit his 38th homer in Sunday’s finale and enters this week tied with Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero for the American League home run lead. The good news for Alvarez in his quest for the Triple Crown is that he can be tied with Caminero for the home run lead at season’s end and still win the award as long as he is tied or ahead in batting average (leads another Rays player, Chandler Simpson, by six points in that race, .314 to .308), and RBI (currently ahead of Baltimore’s Pete Alonso, 95-94, with Caminero two back with 93).
I might be more interested in Alvarez’s attempt to be the second Triple Crown winner this century (Miguel Cabrera, 2014) than I am in the AL West race between Houston and Texas. The AL West doesn’t excite me this year given the caliber of play, and I shouldn’t have to explain why if you’ve read any of my past articles. This is the worst division I’ve ever watched top to bottom, and unfortunately, a bit later, I’m going to have to discuss it further thanks to a pair of losing clubs getting set to battle in pretty much a must-win situation for one of them.
As for what’s at stake in this series. The Phillies are clearly in trouble in the NL East, as mentioned earlier. After dropping the season series to Atlanta on Sunday, they are technically six games back in the NL East (tiebreaker to Atlanta) with 19 games to go. Philadelphia’s schedule is no picnic the rest of the way (1 vs. Atlanta, 3 vs. Houston, 3 at Atlanta, 3 at Washington, 3 at Mets, 3 vs. Brewers, 3 vs. Rays). However, the good news is that they are five games clear of San Diego in the wild-card race. Time will tell if they have enough to overtake Chicago for the No. 4 seed and earn home-field advantage in the NLWC.
The Astros lead Texas by two games in the AL West and went 9-4 against the Rangers this season, giving them the tiebreaker if the teams finish the campaign with identical records. Overall, Houston’s schedule doesn’t look too difficult after this series against Philly and their next one at Tampa Bay. The ‘Stros end the season with a pair of three-game series against the Royals and Atlanta followed by two road series at Seattle and Sacramento.
I have my eye on Wednesday’s potential Game 2 pitching matchup between Houston’s Hunter Brown (16 GS, 5-3, 3.31 ERA) and Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sánchez (29 GS, 16-5, 2.58 ERA).
No. 4: Pirates (71-73) at White Sox (75-68)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
I’ve got to give Pittsburgh some credit. A few weeks ago it looked like the Pirates were going into their typical second-half slide, which has kept them from reaching the postseason for the past decade. Their ace, Paul Skenes, has been a shell of himself, but to their credit, the Buccos are still fighting. After being swept by the Dodgers on August 23, Pittsburgh has won four straight series against the Padres, Cardinals, Giants, and most recently over the Angels. They won each series 2-1, and now they’re five games behind Arizona for the last NL wild card. There’s still a lot of work to be done if the Pirates are to make a serious run at this, but they’ve at least shown their fans that giving up isn’t an option this year. I love that mentality, and we’ll see how this squad fares in the Windy City over the next week with back-to-back series against the White Sox and Cubs. If they survive those six contests, they will return home for a nine-game homestand and, perhaps, be within striking distance of the playoffs. I’m not getting my hopes up, but they’ve earned some ink this week.
Meanwhile, Chicago is 5-5 over its last 10 contests, but so too is Cleveland, which sits 2 ½ games behind the White Sox in the AL Central. Minnesota and Detroit have played their way out of the race at seven and 10 games out, respectively. This leaves us with two teams fighting for a division crown and a very possible bye to the ALDS. As it stands today, the Sox are 2 ½ games ahead of Houston for the AL’s No. 2 seed. Next Monday, Chicago visits Cleveland for three games in what will be the final series between the clubs. The White Sox are 6-4 versus the Guards this year and are one win away from clinching the season series.
Chicago has the second-best home record in the AL at 43-28. Pittsburgh is 33-39 away from PNC Park.
No. 5: Rangers (71-73) at Mariners (67-77)
Series length: Three games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday)
In 2026, I should never have to say that the Mariners salvaged the final contest of a four-game series at home versus the dreadful A’s. That was not how it was written at the start of this campaign. But Seattle has completely let down its fans with their play, and all that talk about the Mariners still being in the race, given their “soft” September schedule, completely went down the drain with their 3-1 series loss over the weekend to Sacramento. At 10 games under .500 in September, I should be embarrassed to place a team this bad in a top-five slot, no matter who their opponent is. I should be even more embarrassed that the opponent they are about to play is also under .500. Folks, I’m either completely out of line for having this series between two underachieving franchises in the top five, or there is absolutely no other matchup listed below that has a bigger overall impact on the standings. I tried to leave this series off the list, but I couldn’t. Here’s why.
The Rangers are two games back in the AL West and AL wild card race. They are a legit playoff contender that could find their way into the postseason. I don’t trust Texas and their 31-41 road record. That record needs to improve this week at Seattle and Arizona if they want to stay in the mix. Where I struggle most is with giving you Seattle’s case to stay in the race, however ridiculous that might seem. They are six games behind Houston in the division and six back of Cleveland for the third AL wild card. I’m punting them from the wild-card race after their series loss to the A’s. There are five clubs ahead of them for the AL’s No. 6 seed, and with only 18 contests remaining, it’s not happening.
The only hope for the M’s is the AL West title. And the only way they will win that division, in my humble opinion, is with a series win over Texas this week. Even then, I don’t give them much of a chance. They play the A’s, Angels, and Rockies in 15 of their last 17 games combined, but given how poorly Seattle has played since the start of July (23-34 record since July 1), they aren’t faring that much better than their upcoming opponents. The M’s do have a two-game series at home against Houston in the last week of the regular season (Sept. 22 and 23).
I don’t know what’ll happen here. But I do feel strongly that a series loss by the Mariners unofficially ends their season.
Missed the Top Five
Mets (65-78) at Marlins (72-72): Three games
Angels (54-89) at Red Sox (79-65): Three games
Guardians (73-71) at Orioles (69-75): Three games
Diamondbacks (76-68) at Royals (64-80): Three games
Twins (68-75) at Tigers (65-78): Three games
Nationals (67-78) at Padres (75-68): Three games
Cardinals (72-72) at Giants (59-85): Three games
Reds (69-74) at Dodgers (86-57): Three games
Blue Jays (72-72) at A’s (57-87): Three games
Rockies (55-88) at Yankees (81-62): Three games
